South Korea's first hypersonic glide test puts mass production in the 2030s, one analyst estimates

Kang Yu-jung, the senior presidential spokesperson, disclosed the launch in a written briefing ^[4]. As reported, the briefing did not include a range, a speed achieved, a budget or a contractor. Kang said the system was "a core strategic asset that can change the course of a battlefield" ^[5].

The only timeline in the coverage came from Shin Jong-woo, secretary-general of the Korea Defense and Security Forum. He said the test "means our military has succeeded in a test launch of a ballistic-missile-type HGV and has reached a considerable level of technology" ^[19]. He went on: "It appears to have passed exploratory development and to be at the stage just before weaponization. Considering this state of technological development, mass production could be possible around the mid-to-late 2030s" ^[20].

If Shin is right, the money spent on the glide vehicle this decade is development money, and production revenue for whichever companies build it lands in the next one. Lee wants it faster. "We must not rest on today's success but further advance the HGV so it can establish itself as a solid strategic asset that protects our security in the future," he said at the site ^[11]. He also pledged that "the government will also provide support so that advanced weapons are developed and deployed in the field, leaving the public with no worries" ^[12]. A third possibility is that the nearer orders come from other programs. After the launch, Lee went on to inspect the Hyunmoo-5, a high-power missile ^[16].

I think Shin's date is the one to use until the government publishes its own. On that date the test supports a Korean hypersonic order book in the 2030s ^[20], and it tells an investor little about missile makers' revenue before then. The view is wrong if a production contract for the glide vehicle is signed before 2030.

The stated mission is also narrower than long-range strike. The presidential office said Korea had "completed preparations to secure in earnest a new deterrent capable of striking key targets in the Korean Peninsula battlefield environment" ^[3]. Lee's line at the site was "our security is secured by our own strength" ^[10]. At a Cabinet meeting on the 29th of last month he had called for "picking up more speed on building nuclear-powered submarines and advancing missile technology, including hypersonic missiles, which are the key to self-reliant defense" ^[9]. Submarines are on the same list. I'd expect the two programs to compete for the same procurement money.

Estimates of the North's latest launch depend on who made them. North Korea said a missile fired from the Wonsan area on the 3rd hit a target 1,000 km away. South Korea's military detected a flight of more than 700 km, and Japan's Defense Ministry put it at about 680 km ^[15]. The North's claim runs 320 km, or about 47%, past Tokyo's figure ^[18].