The US Army says it has not yet declared its Dark Eagle hypersonic missile fully fielded, more than three years after the original target. A missile that flies in tests can still lack what a unit needs to use it.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence65
North Korea launched toward the East Sea on Oct. 12, nine days after its Oct. 3 test, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said. Seoul was still analyzing the projectiles, so a case for pricing lasting Korea and Japan risk rests on frequency alone for now.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence58
Lockheed unveils PAC-3 Edge interceptor, built around a seeker backed by $250 million in facility investment
Lockheed Martin unveiled PAC-3 Edge, a Patriot-family interceptor it plans to test in 2027 and field in 2031, built on a new seeker. The design keeps the Army's existing launchers and battle-command system, so a crew would field new rounds inside hardware already in service.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption5
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence40
South Korea flew its first homegrown hypersonic glide vehicle, built for at least Mach 5, as President Lee Jae-myung watched. On the one production estimate published, the orders it implies for Korean missile makers arrive in the 2030s.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 36%
- Operator
- Operator 44%
- Investor
- Investor 20%
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption5
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives65
- Confidence60
Castelion's Blackbeard fires from a truck-mounted test rig ahead of the Army's planned HIMARS trial
Castelion posted the first public image of Blackbeard firing from a truck, a hypersonic missile aimed at about 80% of PrSM Increment 4's capability for less. Whether it fits the Army's existing rocket launchers is still a planned step that the photo cannot confirm.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives58
- Confidence45
Kim Yo-jong says Seoul and Tokyo lost track of North Korea's Oct. 3 missile, citing their range estimates of more than 700 km and about 680 km. Holders of Korean and Japanese assets have reason to price that only if the US-South Korean analysis of the flight backs her up.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 22%
- Operator
- Operator 56%
- Investor
- Investor 22%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
The hypersonic missile maker raised $1bn to build a high-rate production line in New Mexico. The disclosed contract book is 26 times smaller than the valuation.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 22%
- Operator
- Operator 31%
- Investor
- Investor 47%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives70
- Confidence60
A $13B valuation on $500M of booked military contracts, co-led by a bank, a buyout firm and a venture fund, is what defense industrial capital looks like when it stops being venture capital.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 14%
- Operator
- Operator 11%
- Investor
- Investor 75%
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption42
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives82
- Confidence55