Bitcoin stalls under its $87,400 high a second time as futures leverage rebuilds
Bitcoin rose to just shy of $86,950 on Monday, within about $500 of its eight-month high, then fell below $86,000, its second stalled rally in a week. Soft U.S. jobs data drove the move, and clearing the high looks to need both lower Treasury yields and leveraged buyers willing to keep paying to wait.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- The first stalled push came last Wednesday, when bitcoin jumped to $85,500 after a softer U.S. inflation report and gave the move back within hours.
- Friday's September jobs report showed 29,000 new jobs, unemployment at 4.2% and a 29,000 downward revision to August, according to Cryptopolitan.
- Bitcoin futures open interest rose 27,000 BTC, about 4.3%, to roughly 653,000 BTC between Sept. 30 and Oct. 2, according to CoinGlass data cited by CoinDesk.
- Over the same days the perpetual funding rate, which longs pay shorts when it is positive, rose from about 3% to 10%.
Why it matters
- Who's exposed exposure Longs paying higher funding are holding into a level that has turned price back twice in a week, the position CoinDesk says is more exposed to a sudden reversal.
- What it limits constraint If CoinDesk is right that $87,400 comes within reach only as the 10-year keeps falling, bitcoin's next leg is tied to U.S. economic releases it has no influence over.
- What doesn't add up contradiction Cryptopolitan's report of a break above $88,000 cannot be lined up with CoinDesk's Monday data, so whether the high has already given way is unresolved on the public record.
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Bitcoin's 1.5% gain [3] came against a two-basis-point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield, to 5.25%, still close to its highest since 2002 [2]. CoinDesk described the jobs data as easing some pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep raising rates [1]. The September gain and the August revision were the same size, so the payroll count through September lands where the first August estimate had put it a month earlier [19]. The dollar rose anyway. A Bloomberg gauge of the currency gained 0.4% as the euro fell to its weakest since May 2025 on reports that Spain is preparing for an early election [11].
Leverage built faster than price. Between Sept. 30 and Oct. 2, open interest grew 4.3% while bitcoin rose 3.6%, from about $83,500 to $86,500 [12][13][18], and the perpetual funding rate more than tripled [20]. The base was thin, with open interest at the end of September near its lowest in 12 months [15]. CoinDesk wrote that higher funding "raises the cost of holding long positions and can leave leveraged traders more vulnerable to a sudden price reversal" [9].
If the 10-year keeps falling, CoinDesk's view is that the $87,400 high comes within reach [24], and it names a daily close above $87,000 as the first sign buyers can get through [25]. If yields fall but leveraged longs are shaken out first, the past week repeats: a jump on soft data, then a giveback within hours, as on Wednesday [8]. Or the break has already come. Cryptopolitan's undated live report has bitcoin above $88,000, up almost 2% over 24 hours, with the 10-year at 5.22% [21][22]. That would put the price $600 through the high on a yield 3 basis points below Monday's [23]. Its oil price, below $90, is far from the roughly $101.50 Brent figure CoinDesk reported [22][4], so the two reports do not describe the same moment.
I think yields are the trigger and positioning decides whether a break holds. Both stalls in the past week followed soft U.S. data [8][1], and Monday's came into a futures market where longs were paying more to stay long [14]. The view is wrong if bitcoin posts a daily close above $87,000 with the 10-year still at 5.25% [25][2], because buyers would then have cleared the high without help from bonds.
Citigroup has raised its 12-month bitcoin target to $113,000 and projects another $5 billion of crypto inflows, according to Cryptopolitan [16]. The target is 29% above the eight-month high [17].
What to watch
- A dated, confirmed bitcoin print above $88,000, and where the 10-year Treasury yield stood when it happened.
- Whether perpetual funding eases back toward the roughly 3% of late September while open interest holds near 653,000 BTC.
Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 8%
- Investor
- Investor 87%
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Softer U.S. jobs data on Friday eased some pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep raising rates.
- [2]
The 10-year Treasury yield fell two basis points to 5.25%, still close to its highest since 2002.
- [3]
Bitcoin rose 1.5% to above $86,000 as softer U.S. jobs data fueled expectations of lower interest rates and lifted global stocks.
- [4]
Brent crude slipped 0.7% to about $101.50 a barrel after Saudi Arabia cut prices of its benchmark grade to Asia.
- [5]
Bitcoin zoomed to nearly $87,000 early Monday, peaking just shy of $86,950, within about $500 of its eight-month high.
- [6]
Bitcoin then reversed to just under $86,000 as of Monday Asian morning hours, having shed about $1,000, and was still up 1.3% over 24 hours.
- [7]
It is the second push in a week to stall below the late-September high near $87,400, bitcoin's eight-month high.
- [8]
Last Wednesday, bitcoin jumped to $85,500 after a softer U.S. inflation report and gave the move back within hours.
- [9]
raises the cost of holding long positions and can leave leveraged traders more vulnerable to a sudden price reversal
- [10]
The September U.S. jobs report showed 29,000 new jobs, unemployment at 4.2%, and a 29,000 downward revision to August.
- [11]
A Bloomberg gauge of the U.S. currency rose 0.4% as the euro fell to its weakest since May 2025 on reports that Spain is preparing for an early election.
- [12]
Bitcoin open interest rose to approximately 653,000 BTC ($56.2 billion) from 626,000 BTC on Sept. 30, according to CoinGlass data, an increase of 27,000 BTC ($2.3 billion), or roughly 4.3%.
- [13]
Bitcoin climbed from around $83,500 to $86,500 over the same period as the open interest increase.
- [14]
The perpetual funding rate rose from around 3% to 10% over the same period; when funding is positive, traders betting on higher prices pay those betting on lower prices.
- [15]
Open interest of approximately 625,000 BTC at the end of September was near its lowest level in 12 months.
- [16]
Citigroup lifted its 12-month bitcoin target to $113,000 and its ether target to $3,028, while projecting another $5 billion of crypto inflows.
- [17]
Citigroup's $113,000 target is about 29% above the eight-month high near $87,400.
- [18]
Bitcoin rose about 3.6% between Sept. 30 and Oct. 2, against a 4.3% rise in open interest.
- [19]
The September payroll gain and the August downward revision cancel, leaving the payroll level through September where the prior August estimate had it.
- [20]
The perpetual funding rate more than tripled between Sept. 30 and Oct. 2.
- [21]
Bitcoin has broken above $88,000, gaining almost 2% over the past 24 hours, according to an undated Cryptopolitan live report.
- [22]
In the same Cryptopolitan report, oil has dropped below $90 and the 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.22%.
- [23]
Cryptopolitan's $88,000 print is $600 above the $87,400 high, with a 10-year yield 3 basis points below CoinDesk's 5.25%.
- [24]
Bitcoin's eight-month high near $87,400 could come within reach if the 10-year Treasury yield continues to fall, according to CoinDesk.
- [25]
A daily close above $87,000 would be the first sign that buyers can get through the late-September high, according to CoinDesk.
Sources
3 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- coindesk.comWhy rising perpetual funding rates signal growing bullish leverage as bitcoin crosses $86,500
2 articles · October 4, 2026
- cointelegraph.comBitcoin price fails to break higher after best weekly close in eight months
1 article · October 5, 2026
- cryptopolitan.comLIVE: Bitcoin smashes $88,000
1 article · October 2, 2026