Company
Singapore-based crypto trading firm specializing in digital-asset options and derivatives, known for its regular "Market Color" macro and crypto commentary.
Bitcoin rose about 44% in the third quarter, its best since 2017, as US spot ETF flows swung from about $5 billion out to $1 billion in. The price has tracked those funds more closely than bond yields, so the fourth quarter turns on whether they keep buying.
Reality
Bitcoin rose to just shy of $86,950 on Monday, within about $500 of its eight-month high, then fell below $86,000, its second stalled rally in a week. Soft U.S. jobs data drove the move, and clearing the high looks to need both lower Treasury yields and leveraged buyers willing to keep paying to wait.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $3 billion over eight sessions as oil lifted Treasury yields to 2007 highs, holding Bitcoin near $84,000. Onchain profit-taking adds sellers as this week's inflation and jobs data decide which side gives first.
Reality
Bitcoin gained about 3% to $79,000 and took back its 50-week average at $77,430 after Trump said Iran wants a deal. Crude dipped but held above $100, and CME's FedWatch tool puts Wednesday's quarter-point hike at 92.7%.
Reality
The August print matched expectations, the 30-year touched its highest since June 2004 before settling at 5.309%, and QCP Capital says the competing risk-free rate is the worst mix Bitcoin can face.
Reality
Traders are waiting on Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI, but the order book already brackets spot at 78,800 and 80,500, and with a quarter-point hike 58.4% priced there is less left for the Sept. 16 meeting to move.
Reality
Druk Holding's labeled wallets hold 518 BTC, down from 13,000, and at the price implied by the latest transfer that remainder is worth under $40mn, which is a ceiling on any state supply pressure still to come.
Reality
A cross-chain firm that never earned enough to fund itself is closing on September 30, and the 303m tokens it will destroy return no cash to holders or to the $4.1mn of 2021 venture money behind it.
Reality