El Nino at 3.9C: the Met Office puts the heat record in 2027, and the warning arrives now
The Met Office expects the tropical Pacific above 3C in November, and one aggregated forecast says 3.9C. The global temperature consequence lands in 2027, which is still a planning cycle away.
The Scientist · Science desk
What happened
- The Met Office says this El Nino will be the biggest in more than a century, peaking at something over 3C in the tropical Pacific.
- Met Office scientist Nick Dunstone says 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record.
- The event has already fed Hurricane Lala, which flooded Hawaii, while suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity, Scientific American reports.
Why it matters
- Who has to decide decision 2027 budgets and hedges are being written against last year's normals while the forecaster has already withdrawn that baseline; the choice of which number to model is live now, not after the peak...
- Who's exposed exposure Splitting catastrophe exposure between the Atlantic and the Pacific buys less protection in a strong El Nino year, because one basin is quiet for the same reason the other is busy.
- What it limits constraint The drought map is published months ahead, but a growing season cannot be rescheduled, so exposed regions can price a shortfall and little else.
- What it sets up precedent Another temporary breach of 1.5C so soon after the last one turns exceedance into the expected annual condition rather than the exception the target implied.
Next story · Science · Oct 8
WMO forecasts record Pacific warmth of 3.7C above normal as El Niño builds toward a December peakConfirmed3 publishers
The useful part of this forecast is the calendar rather than the peak. The event was declared in early June and is expected to top out in November [7][8], about five months from declaration to maximum [26], and the global temperature consequence lands the year after, because the heat released from the Pacific reaches the atmosphere on a delay [4]. That is why the Met Office's Nick Dunstone points at 2027 rather than 2026 for the record [3]. Physical inputs rarely announce themselves that far ahead of the invoice.
The distance still to travel is worth stating in plain numbers. The Pacific is running about 2.6C above a rolling 30-year average on the Climate Brink dashboard, which uses NOAA data [2], while the forecasts that dashboard aggregates put the November peak at 3.9C [8]. That is a further 1.3C in roughly a quarter [23]. An El Nino is declared at 0.5C above baseline [9], so a 3.9C peak would sit close to eight times the definitional threshold [24] and 0.9C above the 3C recorded in 2015 [25]. Adam Scaife, who runs long-range forecasting at the Met Office, puts a typical event at 1C to 2C and calls 2C already a really big one [13]; the current reading has passed that mark by 0.6C with months of warming still in the forecast [22].
There is a real spread inside the reporting, and it is not decorative. Scaife told the BBC to expect something over 3C [1]. The aggregate says 3.9C [8]. The 0.9C between those two figures is nearly twice the anomaly needed to call an El Nino at all [21], and the two ends of that range do not imply the same losses for anyone buying cover or grain forward.
The regional signature is the part already usable. El Nino reliably dries Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa and northern Brazil while wetting the Horn of Africa, the southern United States, Peru and Ecuador [14]. Scaife expects severe drought in South America and the West Pacific [15], and increased rainfall and storminess in the United Kingdom around November [16]. His framing matters more than any single region: these are long-term persistent conditions, not a short-term weather forecast [18].
One caution against filing 2027 as an outlier. Both 1998 and 2016 were records when they happened, and both have since dropped down the rankings as warming makes record heat more likely [12]. Last year finished third [11]. An El Nino record is a spike riding a rising line, which means the year the Met Office expects to break the record is a reasonable preview of an ordinary year later in the decade, not a number to smooth out of a baseline. Scaife calls the event unprecedented and says he has never seen a signal this intense in the model output [6]; that is a statement about the forecast, and the observed peak in November is what will test it.
What to watch
- Whether Copernicus and NOAA move their own annual outlooks into line with the Met Office's record call for 2027, or hold a wider range.
- Southern African and Australian rainfall through the coming season, the first place a forecast drought becomes a measured shortfall.
- Whether Atlantic hurricane suppression holds for the rest of the season while Pacific activity stays elevated.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives42
- Confidence61
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, told the BBC: "We are expecting the biggest El Nino for over a century, peaking at something over 3C - that is unheard of in modern climate records."
- [2]
Temperatures in the Pacific region are currently running about 2.6C above a rolling 30-year average, according to the Climate Brink dashboard based on data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
- [3]
Met Office scientist Nick Dunstone said 2027 is now "very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record".
- [4]
Scientific American reports that the strength of this El Nino could make 2026 the hottest year on record and it will certainly be among them, but 2027 may be more likely to take the top slot because the effects of El Nino's heat release happen on a delay.
- [5]
El Nino is already causing well-below-normal rainfall in India, the Met Office said; Scientific American reports the event has contributed to well below normal rainfall from the Indian monsoon.
- [6]
Scaife said in a Met Office blog: "We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event" and "I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts."
- [7]
The El Nino was declared in early June and has steadily gained steam since, setting a temperature record for that time of year, according to the Met Office as reported by Scientific American.
- [8]
The Climate Brink dashboard aggregates forecasts that put El Nino on course to peak at a 3.9C anomaly in November, above the 3C anomaly detected in 2015.
- [9]
El Nino occurs when water temperatures rise at least 0.5C above the baseline.
- [10]
In 2024, global temperatures exceeded 1.5C above the preindustrial period, the limit set by international commitments to curb global warming.
- [11]
Last year was the third hottest on record.
- [12]
Both 1998 and 2016 were record hot years, but both have since fallen down the rankings as climate change makes record-hot years more likely.
- [13]
During an El Nino, temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific generally rise about 1 to 2 degrees Celsius above normal, "with 2C being a really big event", Scaife said.
- [14]
El Nino typically results in drier conditions across Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa and northern Brazil, and wetter conditions in the Horn of Africa, the southern United States, Peru and Ecuador.
- [15]
Forecasters "expect really severe droughts in places like South America, and the West Pacific", Scaife said.
- [16]
The event is expected to prompt "increased rainfall and storminess in the fall here in the U.K. around November", Scaife said.
- [17]
The event has already juiced Hurricane Lala, whose rainfall devastated Hawaii, while keeping a lid on Atlantic hurricane activity.
- [18]
Scaife: "These are not short-term weather forecasts. We're talking about really long-term, persistent conditions here."
- [19]
Carlo Buontempo, director of the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, told AFP in January that 2026 could be "another record-breaking year".
- [20]
Dunstone said 2027 will probably be "another year to temporarily exceed +1.5 C above the preindustrial period".
- [21]
The gap between the Met Office's "something over 3C" and the 3.9C aggregate is about 0.9C, roughly 1.8 times the 0.5C El Nino threshold.
- [22]
The current 2.6C anomaly is already 0.6C above the 2C level Scaife calls a really big event.
- [23]
The forecast November peak is 1.3C above the current Pacific anomaly.
- [24]
A 3.9C peak would be about 7.8 times the 0.5C anomaly that defines an El Nino.
- [25]
A 3.9C peak would be 0.9C above the 3C anomaly detected in 2015.
- [26]
There are about five months between the early June declaration and the forecast November peak.
Sources
2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- phys.orgUK forecasts 'biggest' El Nino will smash records, spark hottest year
1 article · August 21, 2026
- scientificamerican.comWhy this El Niño will be the largest in living memory
1 article · August 21, 2026
Topics and entities
Topics
- El Nino-Southern Oscillation
- Seasonal and long-range climate forecasting
- Global temperature records and the 1.5C threshold
- Extreme weather and regional impacts
Entities
- Adam Scaife
- AFP
- Climate Brink dashboard
- NOAA
- El Nino
- UK Met Office
- Copernicus Climate Change Service