Hurricane Simon reached Category 4 strength just off Mexico's Pacific coast on Sunday, with peak winds near 155 mph. US forecasters warned of catastrophic wind, surge and flooding across west-central Mexico near the Puerto Vallarta area.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 76%
- Investor
- Investor 17%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence68
Fewer than three in ten eligible Welsh properties have signed up for flood warnings
Natural Resources Wales says 27% of eligible properties are signed up for flood warnings, although one in seven Welsh properties is at risk. It cites long-range forecasts of a wetter, windier autumn than usual.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption27
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
El Niño's wind shear kept the Atlantic hurricane-free through September for the first time on record
El Niño kept the Atlantic free of hurricanes through September for the first time in reliable records by holding wind shear high over warm water. The mark could still fall if the National Hurricane Center upgrades Tropical Storm Fay in its post-season review.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Twenty-five ice cores trace West Antarctic snowfall swings to tropical Rossby waves
University of Utah scientists used 25 ice cores to show that El Nino and the Madden-Julian Oscillation steer yearly snowfall on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The finding makes the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans part of estimating how much snow the sheet gains each year.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives30
- Confidence55
Rainfall extremes explain two-thirds of the year-to-year swing in Ghana's cocoa harvest
A Harvard and University of Ghana team detrended two decades of district production records and found that heavy April-June rain matters about as much as dry-season drought, with both extremes tied to large-scale climate patterns.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives52
- Confidence58
Pairing drought forecasts with feed and finance outperformed forecasts alone in a seven-country model
Researchers led from Sydney and Imperial simulated pastoral households across seven southern African countries and report that better seasonal information helped the poorest herders only when something also paid for the response.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives70
- Confidence48
One 2008 cyclone killed more than twice as many people as 675 other storms combined
King's College London researchers counted deaths from every recorded tropical cyclone and extreme heat event since 2000. The toll sits in a handful of outliers, and they argue the scenarios used in risk assessment are not built to find events without precedent.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
Daily rain sampling in Manaus links the 2023-24 Amazon drought to shifted moisture sources
A UNESP-led team read 207 daily rain samples collected in Manaus between March 2023 and February 2025 and found two Atlantic systems taking turns at setting the isotope ratio. The early-warning use is still untested.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence50
Three Pacific cyclones spinning at once match what the spring El Niño outlook called
By September 3 the Northeast Pacific had 15 named storms and six hurricanes against the Atlantic's five and none, the split forecasters called back in spring. A basin tally, though, says nothing about where the rain lands.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives38
- Confidence62
A 35.8% rainfall deficit puts the Panama Canal on 32 transits a day
The canal's water manager reports April-to-August rain running 35.8% below the historical average with no near-term recovery, so schedulers have to treat a lock system whose throughput is set by lake level as a variable into mid-2027.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence58
Kalimantan's fires: El Nino is the multiplier, the drained peat is the base rate
NASA FIRMS counts show a sharp August spike across five provinces. A published study puts El Nino's megafire effect at roughly 2.7x, and severe fires still happen without it.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives55
- Confidence52
Met Office puts the Pacific 3C above normal, and puts 2027 into next year's budget
The forecast signal is stronger than anything in the record since 1950. The observation underneath it is 1.4C, and that gap is the part worth watching.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives44
- Confidence47
The Met Office expects the tropical Pacific above 3C in November, and one aggregated forecast says 3.9C. The global temperature consequence lands in 2027, which is still a planning cycle away.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives42
- Confidence61
Record El Nino, wrong states: why this winter is noise for Colorado River siting
Mead and Powell set multiple record lows this month, and the reliable wet signal lands where the water is used rather than where the snowpack that refills them piles up.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−8
- Incentives38
- Confidence55
Panama trims canal slots to 32 a day from Sept. 15, and the auction is where it will bite
The Panama Canal Authority cuts daily transits from 36 to 34 on Sept. 3 and to 32 on Sept. 15 after a 34% rainfall shortfall. Booked ships keep their slots; everyone else queues or bids.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption42
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives62
- Confidence54
A 75% Chance Of A Quiet Atlantic Is Not A 75% Chance Your Site Stays Dry
NOAA raised its below-normal odds for the 2026 Atlantic season by 20 points in August. The figure describes an ocean basin, and it says nothing about where a storm makes landfall.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption22
- Hype gap−12
- Incentives32
- Confidence54
Honduras puts 234 of 298 municipalities on drought alert, and names its own end date
A record-strength El Nino has moved from forecast to administrative emergency in the Central American Dry Corridor. The government says the crisis runs to March or April.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives62
- Confidence41
Three storms and an ACE of 3.1: the Atlantic is quiet, not cancelled
Forecasters expect fewer than 10 named storms this Atlantic season, but roughly nine-tenths of an average season's storm energy normally arrives after mid-August.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50