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Meta's Muse targets the inertia that Stanford economists say roughly doubles subscription revenue

Meta's Muse agent can find and cancel recurring subscriptions, aiming at the inertia and friction Stanford economists say roughly double sellers' revenue. Subscription spending still grew 7.7% in July, so the test is whether that growth slows once agents start making households decide.

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Illustration accompanying Meta's Muse targets the inertia that Stanford economists say roughly doubles subscription revenue
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What happened

  • Stanford economist Neale Mahoney's 2025 American Economic Review research finds people are about four times more likely to cancel a subscription when they are forced to decide.
  • A Mastercard and FT Strategies report found 44% of US consumers raised subscription spending in 2025, with the average reaching $1,887 a year, about $157 a month.
  • ScribeUp's cancellation activity rose 3.8 times in health and fitness, 2.2 times in video streaming, 2.1 times in news and media and 1.9 times in music streaming.

Why it matters

  • Who's exposed exposure A credit-monitoring service billing lapsed users has more revenue within an agent's reach than a pet-food box whose monthly delivery already reminds the customer it exists.
  • What doesn't add up contradiction Cancellation rates and subscription counts are climbing together, so any Muse effect has to show up against a category that kept growing through years of standalone cancellation tools.
  • Who's exposed exposure Banks paying 0.1% on checking deposits face the same agent review of household cash, against alternatives Apollo's Slok puts 3.2 to 4.9 points higher.

A seller whose revenue is doubled by inertia and friction collects about half of it from customers who never actively chose to stay [8][15]. The average US consumer spent $1,887 on subscriptions in 2025, according to Mastercard and FT Strategies [4], and half of that is about $940 a year [16]. The figure is illustrative. The doubling comes from the sellers in the Stanford paper, and the Mastercard number averages every kind of subscription.

Mahoney's four-to-one result [7] shows how an agent gets at that half. An assistant that lists each recurring charge forces the decision that inertia puts off, and Mahoney said AI agents could weaken both inertia and friction [18]. Subscription managers have offered the listing for years; Muse puts it inside a much broader personal assistant [1][3].

Those years of tools did not stop the category growing. Subscription spend rose 7.7% year on year in July, faster than overall card spending, according to Bank of America payments data, with entertainment and retail about 43% of the total [5][6]. ScribeUp, which builds subscription tools into banking apps [14], says its median user has more than 12 recurring payments and one in four has 20 or more [11]. The share of its users with at least eight rose from 62% to 71% in a year, a gain of 9 points [17], while members became 1.8 times as likely to start a cancellation [9]. Mackler said cancellations at a single merchant can jump as much as 50% when prices rise [12]. "More of life is becoming a recurring bill. Those bills cost more every year, and it becomes increasingly difficult for consumers to keep track of everything they are paying for," Jordan Mackler, the company's co-founder and chief executive, said [10].

The Muse effect could run three ways. It could concentrate in digital services such as credit monitoring, which Mahoney said can keep billing long after a consumer stops thinking about it, while pet food arriving at the door stays hard to forget [19]. It could lift cancellations while new sign-ups keep outpacing them, the pattern already in ScribeUp's numbers [9][11]. Or the larger sums could move in bank accounts. I think the first is the likeliest, because the evidence places the forgettable revenue in digital services. Mackler said the rise in cancellations predates ScribeUp's newer AI features [9], so nothing in the record yet ties a change in spending to agents. If Bank of America's subscription growth holds at 7.7% or above in the months after Muse's September rollout [1][5], the agent is not cutting into the base.

The bank version comes from Apollo. "Muse and similar agentic AI assistants could soon sweep household cash automatically into accounts paying 3.3% to 5.0%, instead of the 0.1% national average on checking accounts. If every household used AI agents to optimize the return on their cash balances, banks could lose a large share of the cheap deposits they rely on to make loans, which would be a problem for the entire financial system," Torsten Slok, Apollo's chief economist, wrote last week [20]. His range puts the average checking account 3.2 to 4.9 percentage points below the alternatives [21].

What to watch

  • Whether Meta publishes how many subscriptions Muse users have cancelled, the first direct measure of the agent's reach.
  • ScribeUp's cancellation-initiation rate once its newer AI features are in wide use, against the 1.8 times rise its CEO says came before them.
  • Checking-account balances at US banks, the funding Slok says agents could move into accounts paying 3.3% to 5.0%.

Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.

Clarity's read

What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.

Reality

Evidence52
Adoption40
Hype gap+35
Incentives50
Confidence50

Perspective Coverage

11 publishers
Builder
Builder 33%
Operator
Operator 29%
Investor
Investor 38%
Why these scores

Claim ledger

Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.

  1. [1]

    Meta rolled out Muse in September 2026, an AI personal agent that can handle tasks across many areas of personal life.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBCView cited source
  2. [2]

    Muse can help consumers identify and cancel recurring subscriptions.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBCView cited source
  3. [3]

    Subscription-management services have existed for years; Muse brings that capability into a much broader personal assistant.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBCView cited source
  4. [4]

    44% of U.S. consumers increased their subscription spending in 2025, with average annual spending rising to $1,887, about $157 a month, according to a report published by Mastercard and FT Strategies in April.

    Reported Supported Source: Mastercard and FT Strategies, via CNBCView cited source
  5. [5]

    Subscription spend rose 7.7% year-over-year in July, faster than overall card spending, according to Bank of America payments data.

    Reported Supported Source: Bank of America payments data, via CNBCView cited source
  6. [6]

    Entertainment and retail subscriptions account for about 43% of total subscription spend in the Bank of America data.

    Reported Supported Source: Bank of America payments data, via CNBCView cited source
  7. [7]

    "We found that when people are forced to decide, they are about four times more likely to cancel," said Neale Mahoney, Stanford economics professor and director of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, citing his 2025 American Economic Review paper "Selling Subscriptions" with Liran Einav and Ben Klopack.

    Reported Supported Source: Neale Mahoney, Stanford, to CNBCView cited source
  8. [8]

    The Stanford researchers estimated that sellers can roughly double revenue because of consumer inertia (forgetting or putting off canceling) and cancellation friction.

    Reported Supported Source: Mahoney, Einav and Klopack, via CNBCView cited source
  9. [9]

    ScribeUp says its members are 1.8 times more likely to initiate a cancellation than a year ago; CEO Jordan Mackler said the increase predates ScribeUp's newer AI capabilities.

    Reported Supported Source: ScribeUp and Jordan Mackler, via CNBCView cited source
  10. [10]

    "More of life is becoming a recurring bill. Those bills cost more every year, and it becomes increasingly difficult for consumers to keep track of everything they are paying for," said Jordan Mackler, ScribeUp co-founder and CEO.

    Reported Supported Source: Jordan Mackler, to CNBCView cited source
  11. [11]

    The median ScribeUp user has more than 12 recurring subscription payments, 1 in 4 has 20 or more, and the share of users with at least eight rose from 62% to 71% over the past year.

    Reported Supported Source: ScribeUp, via CNBCView cited source
  12. [12]

    Mackler said cancellations at an individual merchant can jump as much as 50% when prices rise.

    Reported Supported Source: Jordan Mackler, to CNBCView cited source
  13. [13]

    Health and fitness subscriptions saw cancellation activity rise 3.8 times year-over-year, followed by video streaming at 2.2 times, news and media at 2.1 times and music streaming at 1.9 times, Mackler said.

    Reported Supported Source: Jordan Mackler, ScribeUp, via CNBCView cited source
  14. [14]

    ScribeUp builds subscription-management technology into banking apps for banks, credit unions and fintech companies.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBCView cited source
  15. [15]

    If inertia and friction roughly double a seller's revenue, about half of that revenue comes from customers who did not actively choose to stay.

    Derived Supported
  16. [16]

    Half of the $1,887 average annual subscription spend is about $940 a year; illustrative only, since it applies the Stanford sellers' ratio to an all-category average.

    Derived Supported
  17. [17]

    The share of ScribeUp users with at least eight subscriptions rose 9 percentage points in a year.

    Derived Supported
  18. [18]

    AI personal agents could weaken both consumer inertia and cancellation friction, Mahoney said.

    Reported Insufficient Source: Neale Mahoney, to CNBCView cited source
  19. [19]

    Mahoney said a physical subscription such as pet food is hard to forget when the product keeps arriving at the door, while a digital service such as credit monitoring can quietly keep billing long after a consumer stops thinking about it.

    Reported Insufficient Source: Neale Mahoney, to CNBCView cited source
  20. [20]

    "Muse and similar agentic AI assistants could soon sweep household cash automatically into accounts paying 3.3% to 5.0%, instead of the 0.1% national average on checking accounts. If every household used AI agents to optimize the return on their cash balances, banks could lose a large share of the cheap deposits they rely on to make loans, which would be a problem for the entire financial system," Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok wrote in an analysis last week.

    Reported Insufficient Source: Torsten Slok, Apollo, via CNBCView cited source
  21. [21]

    Slok's alternatives pay 3.2 to 4.9 percentage points more than the 0.1% average checking account.

    Derived Insufficient

Sources

11 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.

  1. cnbc.com

    2 articles · September 27, 2026

    Mark Zuckerberg debuts $1,299 Meta VR Glasses and Muse Charm pendant amid AI agent push
  2. cryptobriefing.com

    3 articles · September 28, 2026

    Meta unveils AI glasses, personal agents, and wearable hardware at Connect 2026
  3. en.sedaily.com

    1 article · September 24, 2026

    Meta Unveils Camera-Free Smart Glasses With Muse AI, Starting at $349
  4. finance.yahoo.com

    3 articles · September 24, 2026

    Meta Debuts Muse AI Assistant for Personal Tasks and Organization
  5. fortune.com

    2 articles · September 23, 2026

    Meta announces new lightweight virtual reality glasses to one-up Apple’s Vision Pro
  6. indianexpress.com

    1 article · September 23, 2026

    Meta unveils $1,299 VR Glasses with cinema, workspace and gaming in a 100-gram design | Technology News - The Indian Express
  7. livemint.com

    1 article · September 23, 2026

    Meta unveils $1,299 VR glasses with eye tracking, hologram calls and AI features: All you need to know | Mint
  8. open.substack.com

    1 article · September 25, 2026

    🤖 Your agent, whose interests? - by Azeem Azhar
  9. qz.com

    1 article · September 24, 2026

    Meta unveils $1,299 VR glasses and Muse Charm at Connect 2026
  10. semafor.com

    1 article · September 25, 2026

    Meta’s Muse taps into 'kidult' market
  11. techcrunch.com

    1 article · September 25, 2026

    Meta is putting its muscle behind Muse as the AI app takes off | TechCrunch

Topics and entities

Topics

  • AI personal agents
  • Consumer inertia and cancellation friction
  • Subscription economy

Entities