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Torsten Slok

Torsten Slok is Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, known for widely followed research notes on macroeconomic trends, markets, and economic risks.

Known aliases

  • Slok
  • Torsten Slk
  • Torsten Slok
  • Torsten Sløk

Current stories

buildOne report1 publisher

Wall Street analysts link a 5.22% 10-year Treasury yield to AI borrowing

The 10-year Treasury yield reached about 5.22% from 4.75% in August, a level last seen in 2007, Axios reported. Wall Street analysts say heavy AI borrowing could make financing harder for the government, other companies and households.

Publishers:mezha.net

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption40
Hype gap+25
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

Fortune column pins the worst Treasury month in four years on Warsh's hawkish Fed

Kevin Warsh's hawkish Fed sent the 10-year Treasury yield up more than half a point to about 5.3% in September, a Fortune column argues. Its own account of traders dumping long bonds describes the term premium it dismisses, with the Fed as the cause.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence40
investConfirmed11 publishers

Meta's Muse targets the inertia that Stanford economists say roughly doubles subscription revenue

Meta's Muse agent can find and cancel recurring subscriptions, aiming at the inertia and friction Stanford economists say roughly double sellers' revenue. Subscription spending still grew 7.7% in July, so the test is whether that growth slows once agents start making households decide.

Perspective Coverage

11 publishers
Builder
Builder 33%
Operator
Operator 29%
Investor
Investor 38%

Reality

Evidence52
Adoption40
Hype gap+35
Incentives50
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

Leaving a job now pays 3 points more than staying, down from 11 in 2022

Bank of America Institute data show job-switchers' pay growth fell from nearly 18% in 2022 to 8% in early 2026, against 5% for stayers. Employers saved mostly on hiring offers, and a September update shows that premium climbing again.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives30
Confidence55
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Goldman expects Nvidia and Micron to supply a third of S&P 500 earnings growth

S&P 500 stocks hit a record on tech gains as Goldman Sachs forecast that Nvidia and Micron would supply a third of the index's third-quarter earnings growth. That leaves the season's headline growth rate dependent on two chip suppliers.

Publishers:nbcnews.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence45
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Utilities are pricing data-center demand into electricity rates

New Jersey's utilities board warned power bills could rise up to 20% from June 1, with data centers a key driver. Utilities elsewhere are building the same demand into their pricing, so energy belongs among the costs an operator should expect to climb.

Publishers:cbsnews.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption30
Hype gap+20
Incentives40
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

Former Morgan Stanley AI chief recasts Apollo's agent bank-run warning as deposit repricing

Apollo economist Torsten Slok warns AI agents could sweep cash from 0.1% bank accounts into fintech accounts paying 3.3% to 5%, even causing bank runs. Bank AI veterans call a run a long way off, yet expect agents to make deposit moves faster and more coordinated than banks have seen.

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption5
Hype gap+40
Incentives30
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

AI agents chasing 5% yields could drain banks' 0.1% checking deposits, Apollo's Slok warns

Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok warns AI agents could move household cash out of 0.1% checking into accounts paying up to 5%, in near-unison. Banks lend that cash out assuming it stays put, and losing it would take away the cheap base that makes their lending profitable.

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption8
Hype gap+45
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence35
investOne report1 publisher

Gucci moves its $1,000 sneakers to a Chinese factory chosen for know-how

Gucci is making its newest $1,000 sneakers in China at a factory it picked for technological know-how, ending a 105-year Italian tradition. Chinese supplier capability has already cut into German carmakers' sales in China and now reaches a European luxury house, so far through a single shoe.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption20
Hype gap+25
Incentives45
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

U.S. Has a Lower Debt Ratio Than Japan, But Analysts Warn It Faces Greater Rate Risk

America's national debt topped $40 trillion in August, more than double China's, while its 126% debt ratio trails Japan's 207%. Japan holds about 90% of its debt at home, and the US has to find buyers for about $7 billion of new borrowing a day.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence40
investOne report1 publisher

Federal debt service now costs eight times what corporate borrowers pay as a share of GDP

The federal government is on track to spend about $970 billion servicing its debt in fiscal 2025. The whole gap between that burden and corporate America's is attributed to when each side refinanced.

Reality

Evidence24
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+36
Incentives58
Confidence32
investOne report1 publisher

Gartner traces four-fifths of first-half AI layoffs to firms funding their own AI build-out

Of the 21% of first-half 2025 layoffs Gartner could link to AI at all, 17 points were legacy units cut to pay for AI engineers, salespeople and data center staff. Cuts from AI productivity gains stayed near 1%.

Publishers:cfobrew.com

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption30
Hype gap+35
Incentives55
Confidence48
investOne report1 publisher

Goldman's August AI Earnings-Bubble Warning Now Reinforced by Record $2.3 Trillion Investment-Grade Forecast

Peter Oppenheimer's new note argues that AI capex and government deficits are bidding for the same savings. His figures are issuance forecasts; Apollo's Torsten Slok is reading the same story in bond spreads that already trade wider.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption58
Hype gap+15
Incentives70
Confidence58
investOne report1 publisher

Uber's CTO calls time on tokenmaxxing after quadrupling its frontier AI users

Praveen Neppalli Naga says treating AI cost as an engineering problem lowered Uber's cost per token even as employee use grew. The spending data for the wider enterprise market points the other way.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence42
Adoption55
Hype gap+35
Incentives68
Confidence52
investOne report1 publisher

Apollo's 6.7-point AI wage gap rests on 11 of roughly 800 BLS occupations

Labor's share of nonfarm business output was 52.8% in the second quarter, the lowest since the series began in 1947, and the study now being read as the AI explanation for it measured just 11 highly exposed occupations.

Publishers:cnbc.com

Reality

Evidence52
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+40
Incentives55
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

Amazon earned $6.3m of profit for each sampled worker it has on food stamps

The GAO counted 12,346 Amazon workers on SNAP across eleven states, close to triple its 2020 finding, over a stretch in which the company's annual profit went from $11.6bn to $77.7bn. Labor's share of output is 52.8%.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+22
Incentives60
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

Morgan Stanley's 4%-for-1% cushion prices one lost wage dollar at 24 dollars of paper gain

Apollo's numbers put the AI wage penalty at 6.7 points of real growth across eleven occupations with no job losses, while the equity wealth Morgan Stanley calls a cushion sits with the households that own the AI trade.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption38
Hype gap+22
Incentives62
Confidence58
investOne report1 publisher

Wall Street's converging verdict on $40 trillion: the long bond will do what Congress won't

J.P. Morgan and Apollo reached the same diagnosis a day apart, and Druckenmiller put a price on it: a 5.5% 30-year is not a crisis, it is a bill.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption42
Hype gap+18
Incentives72
Confidence54

Earlier coverage