Besi sheds 3% on a patent count that SemiAnalysis says points to an ASML hybrid bonder

Working back from Besi's 158.50 euros at midday, down a rounded 3% ^[5], gives a prior close near 163.40 and a loss of about 4.90 a share ^[12]. That is what the market charged for a patent count: 27 patent families filed over the 24 months from December 2022 to November 2024, about 1.1 a month ^[11]. SemiAnalysis said the number could be higher because of publication delays ^[8]. (CNA says 27 patent filings and SCMP says 27 patent families, so the two may be counting different units ^[2][8].) Neither report includes a ship date or a customer for the tool.

The patents are not the only evidence, but ASML has confirmed none of the rest either. A spokesperson declined to comment on the report and pointed to the first advanced packaging tool the company launched last year ^[6]. At that launch the company said: "We continue to look at which directions the 3D integration industry will evolve ... and where ASML's expertise can be of additional value," ^[9] In March, Reuters reported that ASML was planning additional packaging tools, citing Chief Technical Officer Marco Pieters ^[10]. SemiAnalysis adds that ASML had begun developing the architecture for a hybrid bonder with Prodrive Technologies and VDL ETG, but it cites industry media reports for that, so the partner link reaches us second-hand ^[13].

Nick Rossolillo, co-founder of Chip Stock Investor, said: "We see the new batch of packaging tools, beyond an EUV pipeline, as critical to pulling off the growth needed to justify (ASML's) elevated valuation." ^[7] SCMP describes the filings as a sign that ASML is moving beyond lithography, a market it dominates, into back-end processes ^[14]. Besi is a fraction of ASML's size but a leader in hybrid bonding ^[3].

We think a 3% fall is a fair price for what is known: a larger entrant with a motive and a paper trail, and no announced product. Three outcomes would change that view. ASML may ship a tool and take share in a market Besi leads, ship something narrower that leaves Besi's position intact, or never ship, in which case the 27 families are all there is. Adoption is also spreading, since SCMP reports that major Chinese companies are adopting the technique ^[14], and a widening market could leave room for a second supplier.

We would drop the thesis if ASML denies the project, or if its next packaging tool turns out to be something other than a hybrid bonder.