Bitcoin has lost 2.9% in a week of falling Fed hike odds
Bitcoin traded near $83,000 on Monday, Decrypt and Bitcoin.com both reported. Decrypt put the odds of an October 28 Fed hike at 19.4% on CME FedWatch, yet spot ETFs took in only $21.13 million on Friday after two days of heavy outflows.
The Investor · Invest desk
Three figures: CME FedWatch puts the chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed's October 28 meeting at 19.4% now, against 22.1% a week ago and 42.5% a month ago.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chance of a 25bp hike on Oct 28, now | 19.4% | 3 | |
| A week ago | 22.1% | 4 | |
| A month ago | 42.5% | 4 |
What happened
- CME FedWatch had the chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the October 28 meeting at 22.1% a week ago and 42.5% a month ago.
- Bitfire says bitcoin has traded mainly between about $80,300 and $87,100.
- CoinShares says digital asset fund flows have lost momentum after $11.1 billion of inflows since mid-July.
Why it matters
- What it limits constraint Hike odds at 19.4% can fall 19.4 points at most, so that source of support is capped and any further lift has to come from yields and the dollar.
- Who's exposed exposure Bitfire's $82,000 line, below which it sees risk of a move toward $79,000, is 1.6% under Monday's price; its $85,600 breakout level is 2.7% above, so the nearer trigger is the downside one.
- Who's exposed exposure Upcoming US inflation data is the next test: Hathorn said it could shape expectations for the Fed's next move, and on her energy-to-yields chain a hot print would push yields, the dollar and hike odds up together.
Next story · Invest · yesterday
Altcoins fell harder than bitcoin when the Kospi plunged 8% and buyers defended $80,000Confirmed3 publishers
Hike odds have fallen 23.1 points in a month [19], and bitcoin is still 2.9% lower on the week [1]. Bitfire's Jade Shi said a shift in rate expectations should in principle support bitcoin, but that elevated long-term Treasury yields mean broader financial conditions have not fully eased [10]. Yields are still close to their highs: the 10-year sits 13 basis points under its 52-week high and the 30-year the same distance under its own [23], both highs having been set last week [7].
Capital.com's Daniela Hathorn puts the cause in energy. "Rising energy prices have reignited inflation concerns, pushing US Treasury yields higher and strengthening the dollar as investors reassess the Federal Reserve's interest-rate trajectory," she said [8]. She concluded that "recent price action suggests investors continue to treat Bitcoin predominantly as a risk asset rather than a reliable geopolitical hedge" [9]. She also said the rebound after the easing of Middle East tensions depends on whether that improvement shows up as a retreat in bond yields and the dollar [18]. Her case rests on recent price action, and over the week the hike odds fell 2.7 points [28] while bitcoin lost 2.9% [1].
The cap sits above $83,000, or rather the failures do. Bitcoin.com reports repeated failures to reclaim $84,000 [2] and an immediate resistance corridor of $84,000 to $85,000 [16]. At $83,327 bitcoin is 44.5% of the way up the $80,300 to $87,100 band Bitfire says it has mainly traded in [26][11]. Bitcoin.com adds that it remains above several longer-term moving averages, which it takes to mean the broader recovery structure is intact [17].
The ETF channel shows who is not buying. According to SoSoValue, outflows were $487.07 million on Wednesday and $244.13 million on Thursday, $731.20 million together [6][21]. Friday's inflow covered 2.9% of that [22], and the three days net to an outflow of $710.07 million [27]. CoinShares says digital asset fund flows have lost momentum after $11.1 billion of inflows since mid-July [14].
We think the risk-asset label fits this week. The counter-thesis comes from CoinShares' James Butterfill, who argued that if yields increasingly reflect concerns about U.S. public finances instead of stronger growth, bitcoin begins to look "less like a conventional risk asset and more like an alternative to government-issued money" [13]. The sources do not settle which cause explains the current yield level; Hathorn points to energy-driven inflation [8]. We would call our view wrong if bitcoin closed a day above $85,000, the level Bitcoin.com says would strengthen the bullish case [16], with the 10-year still near 5.24% [7], because that would show yields are not what is holding it back.
What to watch
- Whether the 10-year yield, 5.24% on Monday, breaks above its 5.37% 52-week high or falls back, since the analysts quoted treat yields as the variable that matters for bitcoin.
- Whether SoSoValue shows a second straight day of net spot ETF inflows after Friday's $21.13 million.
- Whether CME FedWatch hike odds converge toward the 17% that Polymarket shows, and whether bitcoin responds to a further drop.
Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence66
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Bitcoin traded at $83,327 on Monday, up 0.6% over 24 hours according to CoinGecko, and down 2.9% over the past week.
- [2]
Bitcoin hovered around $82,550 to $83,000 on Monday, Oct. 12, 2026, and repeated failures to reclaim $84,000 kept bullish momentum in check.
- [3]
CME FedWatch puts a 19.4% chance on a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed's October 28 meeting.
- [4]
The CME FedWatch chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the October 28 meeting was 22.1% a week ago and 42.5% a month ago.
- [5]
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $21.13 million in net inflows on Friday.
- [6]
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $487.07 million on Wednesday and $244.13 million on Thursday, according to SoSoValue.
- [7]
The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 5.24% and the 30-year yield at 5.60%, according to CNBC, having hit 52-week highs of 5.37% and 5.73% last week.
- [8]
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, told Decrypt: "Rising energy prices have reignited inflation concerns, pushing US Treasury yields higher and strengthening the dollar as investors reassess the Federal Reserve's interest-rate trajectory."
- [9]
Hathorn said: "recent price action suggests investors continue to treat Bitcoin predominantly as a risk asset rather than a reliable geopolitical hedge."
- [10]
Bitfire's Jade Shi said a shift in rate expectations should in principle support Bitcoin, but elevated long-term Treasury yields mean broader financial conditions have not fully eased, which helps explain why Bitcoin has held up without decisively clearing resistance.
- [11]
Bitcoin has been trading mainly between about $80,300 and $87,100, according to Bitfire.
- [12]
According to Bitfire, a break above $85,600 on stronger volume could open the way toward $87,395, while a drop below $82,000 would raise the risk of a move toward $79,000.
- [13]
CoinShares head of research James Butterfill argued that if yields increasingly reflect concerns about U.S. public finances rather than stronger growth, Bitcoin begins to look "less like a conventional risk asset and more like an alternative to government-issued money."
- [14]
Digital asset fund flows have lost momentum after $11.1 billion of inflows since mid-July, according to CoinShares.
- [15]
Hathorn said attention now turns to upcoming US inflation data, which could prove decisive in shaping expectations for the Fed's next move.
- [16]
The $84,000 to $85,000 region forms the immediate resistance corridor, and a daily close above $85,000 would strengthen the bullish argument.
- [17]
Bitcoin remains above several longer-term moving averages, suggesting its broader recovery structure is still intact.
- [18]
Hathorn said the recent easing of Middle East tensions has provided some breathing room, but the sustainability of the rebound will depend on whether the improvement in sentiment translates into a more meaningful retreat in bond yields and the dollar.
- [19]
The CME FedWatch chance of an October 28 hike has fallen 23.1 percentage points in a month.
- [20]
The hike odds can fall at most another 19.4 percentage points, since they cannot go below zero.
- [21]
Spot ETF outflows on Wednesday and Thursday total $731.20 million.
- [22]
Friday's ETF inflow covered about 2.9% of the Wednesday and Thursday outflows.
- [23]
The 10-year yield is 13 basis points under its 52-week high and the 30-year yield is 13 basis points under its own.
- [24]
Bitfire's $85,600 breakout level is about 2.7% above Monday's $83,327 price.
- [25]
Bitfire's $82,000 level is about 1.6% below Monday's $83,327 price.
- [26]
At $83,327 bitcoin is about 44.5% of the way up the $80,300 to $87,100 band.
- [27]
Spot ETFs net to an outflow of $710.07 million across Wednesday to Friday.
- [28]
The CME FedWatch chance of an October 28 hike fell 2.7 percentage points over the week.
Sources
2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- decrypt.coBitcoin Ranges Near $83K as Traders Look to US Inflation Data
1 article · October 12, 2026
- news.bitcoin.comBitcoin Price Walks a Tightrope as Bears Circle the $82K Zone
1 article · October 12, 2026