The US Army says it has not yet declared its Dark Eagle hypersonic missile fully fielded, more than three years after the original target. A missile that flies in tests can still lack what a unit needs to use it.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence65
Treasury and the IRS propose limiting premium tax credits to citizens, nationals and some noncitizens from 2027
Treasury and the IRS proposed rules on Oct. 14 limiting premium tax credits to citizens, nationals and certain lawfully present noncitizens from 2027. About 19.2 million people were enrolled in marketplace plans in early 2026, according to HHS, the base any 2027 loss would be measured against.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives65
- Confidence50
buildConfirmed2 publishers UPS routed Australian F-35 stealth parts through ITAR-barred Hong Kong after an agent missed an email warning, according to two reports. A ban that simple can be enforced by the routing system, provided the export flag travels with the booking.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives40
- Confidence50
GAO finds none of 24 federal agencies has done all three post-quantum basics
None of 24 federal agencies reviewed by the US GAO has fully completed all three post-quantum basics of inventory, funding and testing. Europol's guidance a day later puts the risk on data harvested now and decrypted whenever a capable quantum computer appears.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption15
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence52
Anduril is spending $3.7 billion of its own capital on a Baltimore County shipyard to go with a Navy submarine contract worth up to $2.9 billion. The yard will make Virginia-class parts, so getting the money back depends on the Navy buying more boats.
Perspective Coverage
13 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 14%
- Operator
- Operator 48%
- Investor
- Investor 38%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives75
- Confidence65
OT Cybersecurity Coalition urges CISA to issue a binding directive requiring each federal agency to name an OT security owner and meet minimum practices. The push follows GAO's finding that most civilian agencies have not enacted OMB's 2023 IoT and OT requirements.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 22%
- Operator
- Operator 62%
- Investor
- Investor 16%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption10
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives60
- Confidence68
Trump's nearly $1 billion pocket rescission reaches $28 million in HHS research grants
President Trump is canceling nearly $1 billion Congress approved, including $28 million in HHS research grants, with five days left in the fiscal year. Congress's auditor calls the tactic illegal, and the Supreme Court's one ruling on it rested on foreign-affairs powers absent from domestic grants.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives60
- Confidence62
ShinyHunters says its FBI haul of up to three terabytes includes staff psychiatric records
ShinyHunters says the two to three terabytes it took from the FBI include psychiatric and medical evaluations of bureau staff. Beside a Reuters sample tying named staff to counterintelligence jobs, those files are exposure no password reset can fix.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence40
Federal debt service now costs eight times what corporate borrowers pay as a share of GDP
The federal government is on track to spend about $970 billion servicing its debt in fiscal 2025. The whole gap between that burden and corporate America's is attributed to when each side refinanced.
Reality
- Evidence24
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+36
- Incentives58
- Confidence32
GAO traces $6.7bn of federal administrative leave pay to DOGE's resignation offer
Payroll data shows federal administrative leave spending rose 435% between 2023 and 2025 to $9.5bn. OPM's director calls that a one-time expense and claims $40bn a year in savings. Agencies are already backfilling more than 20,000 of the vacated roles.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives76
- Confidence60
Goddard workers say the center that built Roman could not build another one now
Ten current and former staff told Scientific American that NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center no longer has the people or the equipment to build a telescope like Roman. NASA says flagship missions remain a core Goddard capability.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
Starling's SVB review says private messages, mobile banking accelerated-but didn't cause-2023 run
The first report from the Fed's outside review of its own Silicon Valley Bank supervision backs most of what three earlier audits found, but clears the social media posts blamed in 2023 of creating the condition depositors ran from.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption12
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives60
- Confidence52
MIT Technology Review asks CBP for the tower audit it could have run since 2015
Reporters covered nearly 600 of the 800 towers the government says are operating, and they had to assemble the map themselves from outside sources. Death records follow no shared protocol, so their count of more than 1,050 deaths nearby is a floor.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption78
- Hype gap−18
- Incentives58
- Confidence62
Navy's $562m MQ-25 award brings 14 of a planned 76 tankers under contract
Boeing gets three Lot 1 aircraft plus long-lead parts for three more, with first deliveries due in 2029. That is also the year the Navy now expects the unmanned tanker to reach initial operational capability, four years late.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives58
- Confidence55
buildOne report1 publisher Public Law 119-21 turns a 10 percent SNAP error rate into a 15 percent state cost share
The penalty starts in fiscal 2028, but FY2025 and FY2026 performance sets each state's tier, and Elastic is selling ingest-time flagging into that window. The national error rate was 10.93 percent in FY2024.
Publishers:elastic.co
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives92
- Confidence44
Amazon earned $6.3m of profit for each sampled worker it has on food stamps
The GAO counted 12,346 Amazon workers on SNAP across eleven states, close to triple its 2020 finding, over a stretch in which the company's annual profit went from $11.6bn to $77.7bn. Labor's share of output is 52.8%.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
GAO traces the cost of a cannabis bank account to dedicated staff and monitoring systems
About a thousand institutions filed cannabis-related suspicious activity reports last year, some 11% of insured depositories, though GAO cautions that some were one-off transactions rather than accounts, so the figure caps participation rather than measuring it.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives30
- Confidence63
Foster's H.R.10230 would put credit union and Home Loan Bank tech vendors under federal oversight
H.R.10230 would restore the NCUA's lapsed authority over third-party vendors and extend similar power over the institutions the FHFA regulates. The Defense Credit Union Council says the scope is drawn too wide. No hearing date is on the record.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives62
- Confidence36
SBA's proposed size standards pour 114,500 firms into a fixed $182 billion set-aside pool
Lenders see bigger tickets on better-established credits, while the contractors already inside see 114,500 new bidders competing for a reserved share of federal spending that the rule does not enlarge.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption10
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives75
- Confidence45
The 210-day delinquency that never happened: student-loan errors are now an HR problem
Two borrowers, one internally inconsistent servicer notice, and a GAO finding of poor coordination since July 1. Fixing a credit file takes about a month; the notices arrive on a Saturday.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives58
- Confidence45