Bitcoin falls below $80,000 after hot inflation reports, under the $81,500 ETF cost basis, as ETFs see $859 million in outflows over six sessions
Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Oct. 15 after September CPI hit 3.7% and producer prices rose 1.3% on the month, CryptoSlate reported. Sygnum's base case is a range-bound market into the Oct. 28 Fed meeting, with options pricing $80,000 to $87,000 and spot already below the floor.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Bitcoin held between about $83,500 and $83,900 on Wednesday, under $84,000, ahead of the September US inflation report. Sources differ on whether Williams' remarks lifted the price, and targets of $85,000 and $93,000 wait on the same print.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence62
BTSE's Jeff Mei says Bitcoin could fall below $80,000 on a hot CPI print Wednesday or rebound to $86,000 or higher on a soft one. ViaBTC's Jeff Ko calls the print largely priced in and says his constructive view needs spot ETF flows to recover.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 3%
- Operator
- Operator 20%
- Investor
- Investor 77%
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Deribit's Oct. 16 Bitcoin expiry holds $451 million of put notional at $76,000 to $80,000, a put-to-call ratio of 1.43. Laevitas put seven-day implied volatility at 32.01% going into Wednesday's CPI, down from about 34.5% a week earlier.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence62
Bitcoin trades 1.3% above the $81,300 support that a hot CPI print would test
Bitcoin slid 1.5% to about $82,400 on Monday as Coinglass logged $304.24 million of liquidations before the Oct. 14 CPI print. Only $63.21 million of that was bitcoin longs and shorts, so the rest of the forced trading happened elsewhere in crypto.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Crypto's week has U.S. CPI due Oct 14 at a forecast 3.6% and PPI on Oct 15 at 5.3%, with $116.5 million of token unlocks. The 1.7-point gap between them is down from 2.0 on the prior readings, ahead of a Fed meeting where rates are expected to hold.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence72
JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citi report Tuesday, then inflation data lands Wednesday and Thursday. Per CNBC, FactSet has S&P 500 third-quarter earnings on track for 29.6% growth, and the open question is executives' tone on fuel and borrowing costs.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap0
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Bitcoin's weekly close left it 1.4% above $82,500 support before a CPI forecast of 3.7%
Bitcoin closed the week at about $83,700, 1.4% above $82,500 support, as markets forecast September CPI at 3.7% against 3.4% in August. The cushion is under half of last week's 3.2% loss, and a December hike is already at 70.6%.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence62
Core producer prices ran at a 2.4% annualized pace in August
Headline wholesale inflation accelerated to 5.4% over twelve months while the monthly core gain slowed to 0.2%. Traders go into Friday's CPI with a 64% chance of a September hike priced in.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−12
- Incentives20
- Confidence58
Traders put 70% odds on a Fed hike after an in-line August PPI print
Brent rose 6% to $107 with routes through Hormuz and the Red Sea disrupted, and the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest in more than 19 years. Traders now put the odds of a hike on Wednesday at 70%.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives35
- Confidence58
Traders put a September hike at 87% after WTI cleared $100
CME FedWatch odds of an increase at the Sept. 15-16 Fed meeting rose from 58% to 87% in a week as crude and Treasury yields climbed together. A week ago a hike was already the majority call.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives85
- Confidence58
Bitcoin's rebound ran three times the S&P's on an in-line 3.4% CPI print
The August print matched expectations, the 30-year touched its highest since June 2004 before settling at 5.309%, and QCP Capital says the competing risk-free rate is the worst mix Bitcoin can face.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives70
- Confidence52
Gold near $4,379 is a bet on Fed paralysis, not an inflation scare
Headline CPI eased a tenth to 3.4% and core held at 2.5%. Neither number pays for a nine-percent monthly rally; the consensus that the Fed does nothing does.
Reality
- Evidence24
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives62
- Confidence30