US annual inflation rose to 3.7% in September from 3.4%, above forecasts, as gasoline prices climbed. Diesel has climbed faster than gasoline since February and pay has trailed prices since March, so operators face pressure on two cost lines.
Perspective Coverage
28 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 8%
- Operator
- Operator 31%
- Investor
- Investor 61%
Reality
- Evidence84
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives50
- Confidence80
Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 on Thursday after September PPI came in at 6.3% annually, a day after a hot CPI report. CoinGlass counted $948.22 million of liquidations, 90.6% of them longs, and Nexo says US spot ETF holders are back underwater.
Perspective Coverage
13 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 1%
- Operator
- Operator 35%
- Investor
- Investor 64%
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence68
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is interviewed in Bangkok on Friday, the last Fed speech before a blackout through the Oct. 27-28 meeting. Bank of America says inflation strengthens the case for an October hike. That meeting ends six days before the midterms.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence70
US stocks had their worst day since July on October 14, the Nasdaq down 1.9% and the S&P 500 down 1.1%, after September CPI hit 3.7% against 3.6% expected. That was the S&P 500's fifth loss in six sessions since its record, so the print hit a market already selling.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 14%
- Investor
- Investor 77%
Reality
- Evidence80
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives30
- Confidence78
Exchanges closed $483 million of bitcoin and ether futures over 24 hours as bitcoin fell below $81,000. CoinGlass data in two reports agree on the total, but only crypto.news ties it to the 3.7% September CPI and an 8% Kospi drop.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Gasoline lifts US inflation to 3.7% in September, above forecasts
US annual inflation rose to 3.7% in September from 3.4% in August, above forecasts, the BBC reported from official figures. Energy drove the increase and core inflation was 2.6%, so fuel and heating budgets have a firmer case for revision than general costs do.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence65
Treasury yields follow diesel more closely than crude for the first time, Energy Aspects says
US diesel sits 71% above a year ago against 56% for crude, a split Energy Aspects' Amrita Sen links to inflation and Treasury yields. A fuel clause pegged to crude has recovered only about four-fifths of the rise in what truckers and farmers pay.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives45
- Confidence50
New York Fed estimates tariffs added 2.9 points to US inflation through February
Tariffs added about 2.9 percentage points to US inflation through February, New York Fed research finds. For operators setting next quarter's budgets with the midterms weeks away, the recent data show input costs still climbing.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
Wireless telephone services rose 5.9% in August, the most the BLS has ever recorded for the category, and without that one line core inflation rounds to the 0.2% economists expected. Traders moved hike odds to 85% anyway.
Perspective Coverage
10 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 15%
- Investor
- Investor 80%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives30
- Confidence62
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says oil could settle at $40-50 a barrel once the Iran war ends, a date he says he does not know. Without that date, investors get a direction for oil, yields and mortgage rates and have to price the wait themselves.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence45
BLS revisions cut 60,000 jobs from July and August payrolls, turning July into a 10,000 loss, before September added just 29,000. With August PCE inflation at 3.4%, the case for another hike after the Fed's September move to 3.75%-4% now rests mostly on prices.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 15%
- Investor
- Investor 78%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives55
- Confidence66
US employers added 29,000 jobs in September while the Bureau of Labor Statistics cut 60,000 from its July and August counts. With layoffs still falling, the data describe a hiring freeze that argues for slowing headcount plans and holding cuts in reserve.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 40%
- Investor
- Investor 51%
Reality
- Evidence80
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence75
Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, its lowest reading since April 2014. Economist James Knightley says consumers keep spending anyway, so the survey and his account of spending point in opposite directions.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 34%
- Investor
- Investor 61%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence74
US initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 last week, below the 200,000 forecast, as employers kept holding off on layoffs. That leaves an October Fed hike turning on inflation, where August's 3.4% PCE reading came in under the 3.7% forecast.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence66
Prices made up more than half of the 6.1% rise in US consumer spending over the year to August
US consumer spending rose 6.1% in the year to August before inflation and 2.6% after it, Bureau of Economic Analysis data show. Prices rose faster in August alone than over the year, so the report argues for a slower path of rate cuts.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Spending and Michigan sentiment both slipped, pushing odds of a Fed hold to 71.2%. For rate-sensitive books, the print that removes hike risk adds credit risk.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 30%
- Investor
- Investor 65%
Reality
- Evidence84
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives30
- Confidence78
July CPI at 0.1% and flat PPI took the near-term rate scare off the table. What is left holding up records above 7,800 is a bet on how long GPUs stay useful.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 24%
- Investor
- Investor 67%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence58
Core services and a sudden run-up in computer prices are holding the Fed's preferred gauge 1.35 points above target. Futures put the September choice at hold or hike.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 10%
- Operator
- Operator 32%
- Investor
- Investor 58%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence74
US core capital goods orders jump 14.1% to $88 billion in August
US manufacturers booked $88 billion of core capital goods orders in August, up 14.1% from a year earlier, according to Census Bureau data. Wolf Richter credits the AI build-out, but orders can sit in backlog for months, longer if reported turbine-blade shortages persist.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Social Security's projected 2027 raise of up to 3.6% repays inflation retirees already paid
AARP and the Senior Citizens League project a 2027 Social Security raise of 3.5% to 3.6%, the largest since 2023, with diesel above $6.50 among the drivers. It repays prices already recorded through September, and how far it stretches in 2027 turns on tariffs and chips as much as fuel.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50