Topic
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy process, including FOMC interest-rate decisions, official commentary, and market expectations for future moves.
Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack, a voter this year, said Monday she prefers smaller, faster rate adjustments after September's quarter-point hike. Cryptopolitan counts 15 of 33 major central banks tightening in six months, a 45% share.
Reality
Kevin Warsh's hawkish Fed sent the 10-year Treasury yield up more than half a point to about 5.3% in September, a Fortune column argues. Its own account of traders dumping long bonds describes the term premium it dismisses, with the Fed as the cause.
Reality
JPMorganChase opens third-quarter bank earnings on Tuesday, the first results since the Fed's 25-basis-point hike in September. Deposit costs will show how much of that hike banks are handing back to depositors to keep their balances.
Reality
Bitcoin traded near $82,800, roughly 4% below Tuesday's high, as the 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.71% after Fed minutes pointed to another hike. Futures bets shrank at least as fast as prices, the pattern of traders cutting leverage, while an Ethereum Foundation researcher's 'bunker mode' warning split the industry over wallet security.
Reality
BLS revisions cut 60,000 jobs from July and August payrolls, turning July into a 10,000 loss, before September added just 29,000. With August PCE inflation at 3.4%, the case for another hike after the Fed's September move to 3.75%-4% now rests mostly on prices.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
US payrolls grew by 29,000 in September against a 90,000 forecast, cutting market odds of an October Fed hike to 15% from about 25%. A December hike is still fully priced, so traders moved the date of the next rise and kept the rise itself.
Reality
US payrolls rose 29,000 in September against a 90,000 forecast and revisions turned July negative, all but ruling out an October Fed hike. Economists cited by Reuters still call inflation the Fed's main input, so Q4 plans can drop the hike case and hold rates flat.
Reality
US initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 last week, below the 200,000 forecast, as employers kept holding off on layoffs. That leaves an October Fed hike turning on inflation, where August's 3.4% PCE reading came in under the 3.7% forecast.
Reality
Core services and a sudden run-up in computer prices are holding the Fed's preferred gauge 1.35 points above target. Futures put the September choice at hold or hike.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
The 10-year Treasury touched 4.92% on Thursday, its highest since 2023, with oil back above $100 a barrel. Fed funds futures put next week's hike odds near two in three, and the long end has already moved.
Reality
Bond traders price about 100bp of further Fed hikes by next summer, with the 10-year Treasury yield up 121bp to 5.18% since the attack on Iran. Borrowers who planned around cuts are now betting against a Fed that voted unanimously to hike eight days ago.
Reality
Thirty-year Treasury yields hit their highest since 2004, a day after the 10-year's biggest one-day gain in almost 18 months took it to a 19-year high. The 2-year is still below its 2023 levels, so most of the repricing falls on long-dated, fixed-rate money.
Reality
CME FedWatch put the odds of an increase at the Sept. 16 meeting near 90% after August's core reading, and Capital Economics expects two further quarter-point moves by March 2027. The August data predates $100 oil.
Reality