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Crude Oil Markets

Global markets for buying and selling crude oil, where prices move on supply disruptions, OPEC output, geopolitics, and inventory levels.

Current stories

investConfirmed2 publishers

Seoul freezes its fuel price caps a fourth time with Brent at $105.90

South Korea held its gasoline price cap at 1,784 won a liter for a fourth straight period, with Brent at $105.90. Industry estimates put refiners' losses at 7 trillion to 8 trillion won, above the 5.6497 trillion won budgeted.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 4%
Operator
Operator 59%
Investor
Investor 37%

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+12
Incentives45
Confidence68
investConfirmed8 publishers

Trump's Iran no-strike pledge pushes the oil-supply risk past November 3

Trump ruled out US strikes on Iran before the November 3 midterms and kept the naval blockade in force. Brent still traded near $103 a barrel on Friday, and a pledge that lapses on election day returns no Iranian oil to the market.

Perspective Coverage

8 publishers
Builder
Builder 5%
Operator
Operator 39%
Investor
Investor 56%

Reality

Evidence72
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives70
Confidence65
investConfirmed3 publishers

Brent closes above $104 as Trump promises no Iran strike before the Nov. 3 midterms

Brent crude settled at $104.28 a barrel on Oct. 8, up 4%, after Axios reported the Pentagon had ordered preparations for renewed strikes on Iran. Trump said the same day he would not attack before the Nov. 3 midterms, a promise that stops at the vote while energy and freight budgets run well past it.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 5%
Operator
Operator 28%
Investor
Investor 67%

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+12
Incentives72
Confidence64
investConfirmed4 publishers

Gulf crude regains prewar volume by sending 40% of it around Hormuz

Kpler says about 40% of Gulf crude now leaves without crossing Hormuz, up from 17% before the war, as exports regain prewar levels. Iran's own exports are blockaded to almost nothing, and it can still strike the onshore oil assets that now carry more of the flow.

Perspective Coverage

4 publishers
Builder
Builder 5%
Operator
Operator 39%
Investor
Investor 56%

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+30
Incentives50
Confidence60
investOne report1 publisher

Recovering Gulf exports pull Brent under $100 despite more tanker attacks near Hormuz

Brent fell to $99.49 as Gulf crude flows outside Iran climbed past 81% of pre-war levels and the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels. Rising tanker attacks near Hormuz keep the cost of shipping and insuring those barrels high.

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence62
buildOne report1 publisher

Freight climbs to 27% of a delivered oil barrel's cost as Hormuz traffic returns

Poten & Partners puts a Middle East-to-Asia supertanker charter above $1.2 million a day, up from about $30,000 in January. Freight and lost refining capacity help hold Brent above $100 while Hormuz flows sit near 80% of pre-war levels.

Publishers:mezha.net

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

Brent regains most of its peace-talk selloff after Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz plan

Crude opened Monday higher after President Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz proposal, with December Brent at $98.69 and November WTI at $93.78. Brent has won back 87% of last week's drop and WTI only 44%, held back by talk of a U.S. diesel export ban.

Publishers:fxempire.com

Reality

Evidence40
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives45
Confidence45
investOne report1 publisher

Crude sells off for a fifth session as US and Iran hold 'very good' talks at UN

WTI has not fallen five days in a row since February. What set the run off was a three-hour meeting in New York plus Iran's conditional offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Pump prices are still at record highs.

Publishers:cnbc.com

Reality

Evidence46
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+14
Incentives70
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

Saudi export inventories buy days against a repair estimate of five to six weeks

Drone attacks shut the East-West pipeline that moves about 4 million barrels a day to Yanbu. WTI added 2.5% to $102, and the industry sources Reuters cited cannot agree whether repairs run five to six weeks or less.

Publishers:seekingalpha.com

Reality

Evidence28
Adoption35
Hype gap+35
Incentives45
Confidence40
investOne report1 publisher

Shut-in Middle East production hit 6.7 million barrels a day in the month crude retook $100

The International Energy Agency expects a demand shock this year comparable to the pandemic's, and traders are pricing supply anyway, because the missing barrels show up in inventories while the missing demand shows up only in forecasts.

Publishers:en.sedaily.com

Reality

Evidence42
Adoption38
Hype gap+20
Incentives66
Confidence45
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Gasoline's Labor Day record understates the six-month plateau budgets now carry

The national average reached $4.15 on Friday, above the 2012 Labor Day record of $3.82 but below May's $4.56 peak. For planning, the numbers that bite are August's $4.09 average and the $2.36 gap between states.

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption70
Hype gap+28
Incentives62
Confidence55