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The rolling bubble: stop asking whether AI is one, ask which layer is repricing

Dhaval Joshi says software, silver and semiconductors each boomed and broke in turn as investors kept misjudging who captures AI's value. The rotation is what has kept the selloff from correlating.

The Investor · Invest desk

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What happened

  • Dhaval Joshi posted on LinkedIn on August 3 that AI is not a single bubble waiting to pop but "a rolling SEQUENCE OF BUBBLES", in which capital fleeing one deflating sector inflates the next one in line.
  • Joshi was, until recently, the chief strategist for the Counterpoint strategy at BCA Research in London.
  • Joshi served as chief strategist at BCA Research from April 2021 through July 2026, founding the Counterpoint strategy, whose premise was to generate investment insights independent of the business cycle.
  • Joshi argues the right question is not whether AI is a bubble but which AI bubble is popping today.
  • Joshi describes a rapid-fire sequence of bubbles popping and inflating in a rolling pattern, with investors misjudging and then correcting who or what will actually capture AI's value.

Why it matters

On August 3, Dhaval Joshi posted on LinkedIn that AI is not one bubble waiting to pop but "a rolling SEQUENCE OF BUBBLES," in which capital leaving one deflating sector inflates the next one in line [17]. Joshi, until recently chief strategist for the Counterpoint strategy at BCA Research in London [1], argues the useful question is not whether AI is a bubble but which AI bubble is popping today [18].

That reframing is more useful than the bubble-or-not argument because it implies a rotation rather than a single date. Joshi's account is that investors keep misjudging, then correcting, who or what actually captures AI's value [19]. By his own chart, three layers have already been through the cycle [14]. Software rallied on the idea that AI would be a productivity tool, then crashed once investors decided AI agents threatened the SaaS subscription model itself: "So, the software boom turned to bust" [3]. Silver spiked on its status as the best electrical conductor for power-hungry data centres, which Joshi says "could not justify a near trebling of the silver price when there are other good conductors" [6] - roughly a 200 per cent advance to unwind [16]. Semiconductors rose on the premise of near-limitless pricing power; Joshi says chipmakers have no moats around their profits, and "astronomical margins will crash back to earth when demand and supply equilibrate, as they ultimately must. So, the semis boom is unwinding - though has further to go" [24].

The software episode is the one with a direct read-through for anyone selling seats: the derating was not a verdict on AI working badly, it was a verdict on the pricing model [3]. Joshi frames the wider problem as a margin question rather than an earnings question. He told Fortune he slightly disagreed with BCA's Peter Berezin that this is an earnings bubble, calling it a "profit margin bubble" instead, with the market now asking "How is the E high?" and whether those margins can be held [22].

The obvious objection is that this is just price discovery, and Fortune puts it directly: markets test a thesis, find it wrong, correct [21]. Joshi's answer is amplitude. "If you can make a fortune in a matter of weeks or months, and, crucially, then lose it all just as quickly or even quicker, then that constitutes a 'bubble'" [20]. He describes something closer to narrative contagion that briefly grips a sector and then rolls elsewhere, and notes the silver leg shows the misallocation is not confined to equities [7].

The consolation, for now, is mechanical: because each deflation coincides with a reinflation somewhere else, there has been no correlated selloff [5]. That is also the fragility. Joshi has argued since July 2023 that AI hype would not automatically become profits for the leading tech companies, drawing parallels to the 1990s [11], and the 1990s precedent is unkind to funders: the buildout created enormous value, but the fibre that bankrupted its original owners still carries the internet for entirely different shareholders [13].

Watch the liquidity that powers the rotation. A rolling sequence needs a steady stream of optimism and capital, and a deteriorating economy could slow or reverse the flow between sub-sectors [23]. Watch hyperscaler free cash flow, which the latest earnings season showed being consumed by capital expenditure, with Google going free cash flow negative for the first time in its history [10]. And note that the consensus is already crowded: Jamie Dimon has repeatedly flagged elevated valuations, Bank of America's Global Fund Manager survey has named an AI equity bubble the top tail risk, and Sam Altman, David Solomon and Jeff Bezos have all conceded something bubbly is happening [8] - while the pop that was due in 2025 has not arrived [9].

Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.

Clarity's read

What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.

Reality

Evidence52
Adoption34
Hype gap+16
Incentives62
Confidence58
Why these scores

Claim ledger

Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.

  1. [1]

    Joshi was, until recently, the chief strategist for the Counterpoint strategy at BCA Research in London.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  2. [2]

    Joshi served as chief strategist at BCA Research from April 2021 through July 2026, founding the Counterpoint strategy, whose premise was to generate investment insights independent of the business cycle.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  3. [3]

    Joshi produced a chart showing software stocks rallied on the idea that AI would be a productivity tool, then crashed as investors realised AI agents were threatening the SaaS subscription model itself: "So, the software boom turned to bust."

    Reported Supported Source: Dhaval Joshi, via FortuneView cited source
  4. [4]

    Joshi said the rolling framing would explain the "SaaSpocalypse" in the software-as-a-service sector as well as volatility in silver and semiconductor stocks.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  5. [5]

    Joshi said the cyclical nature of the reinflation has, for now, prevented a correlated selloff, and asked what investment, if any, comes next in the rolling sequence.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  6. [6]

    Silver prices spiked because the metal is seen as the best electrical conductor for power-hungry data centres; Joshi said that on reassessment this "could not justify a near trebling of the silver price when there are other good conductors."

    Reported Supported Source: Dhaval Joshi, via FortuneView cited source
  7. [7]

    Joshi frames the episodes as narrative contagion setting in briefly, like a mania, before rolling off somewhere else, and says the silver example shows the misallocation is not confined to equity markets.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  8. [8]

    Jamie Dimon has repeatedly voiced concerns over elevated valuations; Bank of America Research's Global Fund Manager survey has named "AI equity bubble" as the top tail risk; and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos have conceded that something bubbly is going on.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  9. [9]

    The bubble was supposed to pop in 2025 and yet has kept going.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  10. [10]

    The latest earnings season changed the conversation on hyperscaler free cash flow, which is being eaten by capital expenditure, with Google going free cash flow negative for the first time in its history.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  11. [11]

    In July 2023, Joshi cautioned that AI hype would not automatically translate into massive profits for the leading tech companies, drawing explicit parallels to the 1990s technology bubble.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  12. [12]

    From June through August 2026, Joshi maintained a consistently skeptical posture on AI-driven equity gains, questioning whether the capital expenditure pouring into AI infrastructure will generate adequate returns over a reasonable time horizon.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  13. [13]

    The 1990s internet buildout created enormous long-term economic value, but the companies that funded the infrastructure largely did not capture it: the fibre optic cables that bankrupted their original owners still carry the internet today, for the benefit of entirely different shareholders.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  14. [14]

    Joshi names three distinct layers that have already boomed and broken in sequence: software, silver and semiconductors.

    Derived Supported
  15. [15]

    Joshi's tenure as BCA Research chief strategist ran about five years and four months.

    Derived Supported
  16. [16]

    A near trebling of the silver price implies an advance of roughly 200 per cent from the starting level.

    Derived Supported
  17. [17]

    Dhaval Joshi posted on LinkedIn on August 3 that AI is not a single bubble waiting to pop but "a rolling SEQUENCE OF BUBBLES", in which capital fleeing one deflating sector inflates the next one in line.

    Reported Contested Source: Dhaval Joshi via cryptobriefing.comView cited source
  18. [18]

    Joshi argues the right question is not whether AI is a bubble but which AI bubble is popping today.

    Reported ContestedView cited source
  19. [19]

    Joshi describes a rapid-fire sequence of bubbles popping and inflating in a rolling pattern, with investors misjudging and then correcting who or what will actually capture AI's value.

    Reported ContestedView cited source
  20. [20]

    Joshi's definition of a bubble: "If you can make a fortune in a matter of weeks or months, and, crucially, then lose it all just as quickly or even quicker, then that constitutes a 'bubble.'" He said normal reassessment of winners and losers should not be so extreme in magnitude and rapidity.

    Reported Contested Source: Dhaval Joshi, via FortuneView cited source
  21. [21]

    Fortune notes the obvious counter is that this is simply price discovery - markets testing a thesis, finding it wrong and correcting - with amplitude the difference, as a near tripling of silver overshoots any plausible fundamental by an order of magnitude.

    Reported ContestedView cited source
  22. [22]

    In an interview with Fortune, Joshi said he slightly disagreed with his former BCA colleague Peter Berezin that the market is in an earnings bubble, calling it more of a "profit margin bubble": the market is finally asking "How is the E high?" because margins are very high and may not be maintainable.

    Reported Contested Source: Dhaval Joshi, in an interview with FortuneView cited source
  23. [23]

    If economic conditions deteriorate, the capital flowing between AI sub-sectors could slow or reverse entirely; a rolling sequence of bubbles requires a steady stream of optimism and liquidity to keep the rotation going.

    Reported InsufficientView cited source
  24. [24]

    Semiconductors rose on the idea of seemingly limitless pricing power for chipmakers; Joshi argued investors are realising chipmakers lack moats around their profits, and predicted: "Astronomical margins will crash back to earth when demand and supply equilibrate, as they ultimately must. So, the semis boom is unwinding - though has further to go."

    Reported Insufficient Source: Dhaval Joshi, via FortuneView cited source

Sources

2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.

  1. cryptobriefing.com

    1 article · August 16, 2026

    Dhaval Joshi warns AI is not one bubble but a rolling sequence of them
  2. fortune.com

    1 article · August 16, 2026

    There isn’t just one AI bubble, strategist says — there’s a ‘rolling sequence of bubbles’ instead

Topics and entities

Topics

  • AI market bubble debate
  • Semiconductor pricing power and margins
  • Sector rotation, liquidity and monetary conditions
  • AI capital expenditure cycle
  • SaaS business model disruption
  • Silver and commodity repricing on data-centre demand

Entities