One weekend essay took about a tenth of the year's gain out of memory stocks
Dario Amodei asked AI labs to slow down and the selling landed on memory makers and chip-equipment names, with software rallying against them. Oil near $108 and an 86 percent chance of a Fed hike sat in the same session.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei published a 3,800-word essay over the weekend arguing that AI companies should slow the pace at which they improve their models, on safety grounds.
- OpenAI's Sam Altman, xAI's Elon Musk and Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis all backed the call for a slower pace of development.
- At the New York open on Monday, Nvidia fell 3.2 percent and AMD 4.7 percent, with Marvell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise also pulling back.
- SoftBank, an OpenAI backer, dropped about 13.2 percent in Tokyo, a move connected in part to Altman saying OpenAI will not go public this year.
- In Europe, ASM International dropped nearly 9 percent, while Infineon and BE Semiconductors each fell almost 8 percent.
Why it matters
- Who's exposed exposure Saxo's Chanana puts the first loss from any pause on memory makers, who are building supply now against demand forecasts, so the inventory risk sits with the manufacturers and not with the labs asking for the slowdown.
- What it costs cost Swissquote's Ozkardeskaya argues the spending is already committed and cannot be trimmed in time, so a real slowdown lands as credit risk on indebted data-center operators and the lenders behind them.
- What it sets up precedent A founder's blog post now moves hardware books the way a rule would. Hardware desks have to price the next statement about pace from any frontier lab.
- What doesn't add up contradiction Morningstar has Samsung down 6 percent and SK Hynix 4 percent while the Taipei Times has 3.7 and 5.3, so a desk sizing Korean memory exposure off one report gets the ranking of the hardest-hit name backwards.
Next story · Product · Oct 1
Anthropic aims for a pre-Thanksgiving IPO with an operating loss bigger than its revenueConfirmed2 publishers
Kioxia fell 9.8 percent in Tokyo and Tokyo Electron 3.7 percent, while TSMC slipped 1.2 percent in Taipei, a gap of about eight to one between the memory maker and the foundry [34][5][35]. Saxo's Charu Chanana told the Guardian that memory chips look most exposed, because manufacturers are adding supply against strong demand forecasts that a pause could leave stranded [9]. TrendForce said demand had pushed production on some TSMC lines to full utilization, with second-quarter revenue up 12 percent sequentially at $40.2 billion [29].
The stocks that fell hardest had the most to hand back. Intel, Micron and AMD each dropped about 5 percent [3], and Samsung, SK Hynix, Intel and Micron are all up 100 percent or more so far this year [23]. A share that doubled and then loses 5 percent is up 90 percent, so Monday cost roughly a tenth of the year's gain [30]. Goldman Sachs still has global AI capex topping $1 trillion in 2026 [15]. UBS chief investment officer Mark Haefele said "Stronger safeguards need not imply the end of the AI capex cycle, in our view, with model training continuing, and expanding adoption requiring higher computing capacity" [24].
Morningstar strategist Michael Field said Monday's trading "marks a change for markets, with the negative on software, positive on hardware, trade being turned on its head". For software firms, he said, "this means a stay of execution" [22]. CrowdStrike added 15 percent and ServiceNow 6 percent [7]. Proactive Investors reported that cybersecurity names including CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks were also helped by news of a hack targeting the fintech company Revolut [8].
Other things were in Monday's price. Brent crude traded near $108 after Saudi Arabia shut a key pipeline [16], and bets on a Fed rate rise on Wednesday had gone to 86 percent after Friday's inflation report [17]. Takayuki Miyajima, senior economist at Sony Financial Group, wrote in a note that "Additionally, uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East continues to weigh on sentiment" [18]. Z.AI dropped as much as 10.5 percent after a discounted share placement [10]. Michael Burry, in a message on social media, called the warnings "hype and puffery" and "cover for real uncontrollable slowing growth" [25].
The pressure came from company founders. Cryptopolitan noted the statements hit as hard as they did because they came from the labs at the frontier of the race, not from regulators. Markets, it said, are pricing the possibility the CEOs act on their own advice [20]. President Donald Trump likened AI critics to "very negative forces" [12]. China's foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said "fearmongering, confrontation and vicious competition will only disrupt the process of global AI governance which serves no one's interest" [13].
The listings are the test of whether the labs mean it. Altman told Fortune that OpenAI has delayed its market debut until 2027 [11] and warned that making AI safer will come with "significant costs" [26], while Anthropic still plans to list this autumn and has reportedly chosen the Nasdaq [19]. If Anthropic prices on time and the memory makers guide capex unchanged, Monday repriced the expectation and left the order books alone. If Burry has it right, the confirmation arrives as cancelled orders. Swissquote's Ipek Ozkardeskaya said the spending already committed stands even if expected compute demand and revenue growth slow, and that a genuine slowdown would hit data-center operators that have taken on debt and their lenders hardest [27].
T Rowe Price portfolio manager Sebastien Mallet said "There is little doubt that AI will change the world," adding, "But that does not necessarily mean every investment being made today will generate an attractive return" [28].
What to watch
- Whether Anthropic's autumn Nasdaq listing prices on schedule, against OpenAI's debut now pushed to 2027.
- Whether SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron change supply or capex plans at the next guidance, the confirmation the stranded-supply worry needs.
- Wednesday's Fed decision, with an 86 percent priced chance of a hike, is the cleanest way to separate rate selling from safety selling.
Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption15
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives60
- Confidence65
Perspective Coverage
13 publishers- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 10%
- Investor
- Investor 81%
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Amodei's call for a slowdown was backed by OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman, xAI's Elon Musk and Google DeepMind chief executive Demis Hassabis.
- [2]
At the New York open on Monday, Nvidia shares fell 3.2 percent and AMD fell 4.7 percent, with Marvell and Hewlett Packard Enterprise also pulling back.
- [3]
In the US, shares of Intel, Micron and AMD all fell about 5 percent.
- [4]
Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei published a 3,800-word essay over the weekend arguing that AI companies should slow the pace of improving their models to address safety concerns.
- [5]
In Taipei, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co slipped 1.2 percent.
- [6]
In Europe, ASM International dropped nearly 9 percent, while Infineon and BE Semiconductors fell almost 8 percent.
- [7]
CrowdStrike added 15 percent and ServiceNow gained 6 percent, with SAP, RELX and Wolters Kluwer rising similarly in Europe.
- [8]
Cybersecurity stocks including CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks gained, helped by news of a hack targeting fintech company Revolut.
- [9]
Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, told the Guardian that memory chips look most exposed, because manufacturers are adding supply against strong demand forecasts that a pause could leave stranded.
- [10]
Shares of Z.AI, developer of the GLM AI series, tumbled as much as 10.5 percent after making a discounted share placement.
- [11]
Altman told Fortune that OpenAI has delayed its stock market debut until 2027.
- [12]
US President Donald Trump on Sunday likened AI critics to "very negative forces" bringing up scenarios that would not happen, and said he wanted to make sure the US remains the industry leader.
- [13]
China's foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun told a press conference that "fearmongering, confrontation and vicious competition will only disrupt the process of global AI governance which serves no one's interest."
- [14]
Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon resigned, saying that the "people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade."
- [15]
Global AI capex is seen topping $1 trillion in 2026, according to Goldman Sachs.
- [16]
Brent crude traded near $108 a barrel after Saudi Arabia shut a key pipeline.
- [17]
Bets on a Federal Reserve rate rise at Wednesday's meeting had spiked to 86 percent after Friday's inflation report.
- [18]
Takayuki Miyajima, senior economist at Sony Financial Group, said in a note: "Additionally, uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East continues to weigh on sentiment."
- [19]
Anthropic still plans to list this autumn and has reportedly chosen the Nasdaq.
- [20]
Cryptopolitan reported that the statements hit as hard as they did because they came not from regulators but from the founders of the labs at the frontier of the AI race, and that markets are pricing in the possibility that the CEOs act on their own advice.
- [21]
Anthropic released a threat intelligence report on Thursday detailing how several actors had used its Claude AI models for activities ranging from weapons development and cyber operations to surveillance and fraud.
- [22]
Morningstar strategist Michael Field said Monday's trading "marks a change for markets, with the negative on software, positive on hardware, trade being turned on its head" and that "For software firms that many feared would be disrupted, this means a stay of execution."
- [23]
Shares of Samsung, SK Hynix, Intel and Micron are among those up 100 percent or more so far this year.
- [24]
Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of UBS, said: "Stronger safeguards need not imply the end of the AI capex cycle, in our view, with model training continuing, and expanding adoption requiring higher computing capacity."
- [25]
Michael Burry said in a message on social media that the warnings from Anthropic and OpenAI were "hype and puffery" and "cover for real uncontrollable slowing growth."
- [26]
Altman warned over the weekend that making AI safer will come with "significant costs."
- [27]
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, said the commitments made by AI companies remain even if expected compute demand and revenue growth slow, and believes a genuine slowdown will drag in credit risk and hit data-center operators that have taken on debt and their lenders hardest.
- [28]
T Rowe Price portfolio manager Sebastien Mallet said: "There is little doubt that AI will change the world," and "But that does not necessarily mean every investment being made today will generate an attractive return."
- [29]
TrendForce said demand pushed production on some TSMC lines to full utilization, and that TSMC's revenue last quarter grew 12 percent sequentially to US$40.2 billion.
- [30]
A share up 100 percent year to date that then falls 5 percent is up 90 percent, so Monday's decline removed about a tenth of the year's gain.
- [31]
SoftBank, an OpenAI backer, dropped about 13.2 percent in Tokyo, connected in part to Sam Altman's comments that OpenAI will not go public this year.
- [32]
Morningstar reported that South Korean memory chip heavyweights SK Hynix and Samsung closed down 4 percent and 6 percent respectively.
- [33]
The Taipei Times reported that in South Korea SK Hynix slid 5.3 percent and Samsung Electronics fell 3.7 percent.
- [34]
Memory maker Kioxia Holdings slumped 9.8 percent and Tokyo Electron lost 3.7 percent in the same session.
- [35]
Kioxia's 9.8 percent fall was about eight times TSMC's 1.2 percent slip on the same day.
Sources
13 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- asia.nikkei.comTech stocks slump in Asia, driven by AI safety concerns - Nikkei Asia
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