Overruns explain about a fifth of the $245 million loss Warner Bros. faces on 'Digger'
Warner Bros.' 'Digger' has grossed $35.3 million worldwide after an $8 million domestic opening and a 60% second-weekend drop. Fortune, citing Variety, puts the loss at $245 million; the Los Angeles Times, citing industry sources and counting streaming, says at least $150 million.
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Key figures: the production overrun against the $125 million greenlight is $45 million at the midpoint, in a range of $35 million to $55 million. The reported greenlight cost was $125 million. With production held at $125 million, the theatrical-only loss would be about $200 million.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production overrun vs. greenlight, range midpoint | $45 million | range $35 million to $55 million | 25 |
| Reported greenlight cost | $125 million | 30 | |
| Loss if cost held at $125M | $200M about | 27 |
What happened
- Production cost rose from a reported $125 million greenlight to between $160 million and $180 million after filming ran over schedule, according to Variety.
- Variety puts the worldwide break-even at about $350 million; a Warner Bros. spokesperson told the outlet it is closer to $300 million.
- Paramount Skydance closed its roughly $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery on Oct. 6, and 'Digger' was the studio's final release before the deal.
Why it matters
- What doesn't add up contradiction Fortune's $245 million and the Times' $150 million floor may count different revenue, in which case they are two views of one loss and not competing forecasts.
- What it costs cost Skydance, which now owns the film, carries the loss from its first weeks of ownership, with streaming and other downstream sales as the offset the Times expects.
- Who has to decide decision Whether to repeat an arthouse-toned film at a $125 million-plus cost falls to Dana Goldberg and Josh Greenstein, the Paramount chiefs expected to oversee both studios.
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Fortune's own inputs rebuild the $245 million loss exactly, if you take the midpoint of its ranges. Production cost of $160 million to $180 million [31] averages $170 million [21]; add the roughly $100 million campaign [2] and the cost is $270 million [22]. Theaters keep about half of ticket sales [35], so a projected $50 million global finish [16] returns $25 million to the studio [23], and $270 million less $25 million is $245 million [24]. Fortune does not say Variety built its figure this way [15], and the sum counts box-office receipts only.
The same sum shows how little of the loss the overrun explains. Warner Bros. has said the film cost $125 million, while trade reports put it at $160 million or more [32]. Against the $125 million greenlight [30], Variety's range [31] is an overrun of $35 million to $55 million, or $45 million at the midpoint [25], which is 18% of the $245 million [26]. Hold production at $125 million and the sum still ends in a $200 million loss [27]. The larger gap is revenue: a $50 million finish [16] is 14% of Variety's $350 million break-even [28].
We think the $350 million break-even and the $245 million loss sit on different bases. At a half share [35], $350 million of gross returns $175 million to the studio [36], which leaves $95 million of the $270 million cost to be covered by something other than tickets [37]. Take that $95 million off $245 million and the loss is $150 million [38], the floor the Los Angeles Times attributes to industry sources who counted premium video-on-demand and streaming [8]. The fit may be coincidence (neither outlet shows its model, and the cost range alone moves the result by $10 million either way [29]). If Variety says its $245 million includes streaming, the reconciliation fails.
The Times reports that the film probably will make money through streaming and other downstream sources [18]. "Even with respectable ancillary income based on the film's pedigree, the movie is going to lose a lot of money," David A. Gross wrote in his FranchiseRe movie industry newsletter shortly after the opening [17].
Cruise is usually one of Hollywood's most reliable overseas draws, Fortune writes [4], yet the film opened to $12 million internationally [3] on a campaign of roughly $100 million built largely around him [2]. Fortune says the offbeat tone, meta structure and arthouse sensibility made it a hard sell at blockbuster scale [6]; critics gave it 52% on Rotten Tomatoes and opening-night audiences a C+ CinemaScore [5]. Sources told the Times that marketing may have grown after the opening, once the studio put the split reviews into its ads [9]. The counter-case is that the same film without Cruise opens lower still, and one release cannot test that.
Skydance inherits the result. Paramount completed its acquisition four days after the film opened on Oct. 2 [11], the same day film chiefs Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy departed [10]. A $245 million loss is 0.2% of the roughly $110 billion price [19] and 2.1% of the $11.7 billion Bernstein expects the Warner Bros. film and TV studios to bring in next year [20].
What to watch
- Whether Variety or Warner Bros. says if the $245 million estimate includes premium video-on-demand and streaming, which would confirm or break the $150 million reconciliation.
- Where the global total lands against the roughly $50 million projected finish, from $35.3 million after two weekends.
- Whether Warner Bros. delivers the $11.7 billion Bernstein expects next year, with the 'Minecraft' sequel and a new 'Lord of the Rings' film among the titles it names.
Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption12
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives30
- Confidence58
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Warner Bros.' 'Digger' opened to $8 million at the domestic box office over the Oct. 2 weekend.
- [2]
The global marketing campaign is estimated at roughly $100 million, much of it built around Tom Cruise.
- [3]
'Digger' earned $12 million internationally in its opening weekend, for a $20 million global debut.
- [4]
Cruise is usually one of Hollywood's most reliable draws overseas.
- [5]
The film debuted at 52% on Rotten Tomatoes and opening-night audiences gave it a C+ CinemaScore.
- [6]
The film's offbeat tone, meta structure and arthouse sensibility made it a hard sell at blockbuster scale; it was never pitched as a movie for the masses.
- [7]
'Digger' was Warner Bros.' final release before Paramount Skydance closed its roughly $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery on Oct. 6.
- [8]
Warner Bros. is now expected to lose at least $150 million on the film, including ancillary revenue streams such as premium video-on-demand and streaming, industry sources said.
- [9]
Marketing costs could have increased after the film's opening, sources said, since Warner Bros. began using the divided reviews in social media and TV ads.
- [10]
The film opened Oct. 2, the same day the studio's film chiefs, Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy, departed.
- [11]
Four days after the film's Oct. 2 opening, Paramount completed its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, and the combined company took the name Skydance.
- [12]
Bernstein expects the Warner Bros. film and TV studios to amass $11.7 billion in revenue next year.
- [13]
Paramount Pictures chiefs Dana Goldberg and Josh Greenstein are expected to oversee both the Warner Bros. and Paramount studios, which Skydance has said will stay distinct.
- [14]
'Digger' earned $35.3 million worldwide, and ticket sales in the US and Canada fell 60% in its second weekend after an $8 million opening.
- [15]
After a 60% drop in its second weekend, the film is tracking to lose an estimated $245 million in its theatrical run, according to Variety.
- [16]
Through its second weekend the film has grossed $14.4 million domestically and $35.3 million worldwide, and is projected to finish its run at around $50 million globally.
- [17]
"Even with respectable ancillary income based on the film's pedigree, the movie is going to lose a lot of money," David A. Gross wrote in his FranchiseRe movie industry newsletter shortly after the film's opening.
- [18]
'Digger' probably will make money through downstream revenue sources such as streaming; Skydance, the newly combined company, now owns the film.
- [19]
A $245 million loss is about 0.2% of the roughly $110 billion acquisition price.
- [20]
A $245 million loss is about 2.1% of the $11.7 billion Bernstein expects the Warner Bros. film and TV studios to earn next year.
- [21]
Midpoint of the production-cost range is $170 million.
- [22]
Production at the midpoint plus marketing is a $270 million cost.
- [23]
The studio's half of a $50 million projected global gross is $25 million.
- [24]
A $270 million cost less $25 million of studio theatrical share is $245 million, matching Variety's projected loss.
- [25]
Overrun against the $125 million greenlight is $35 million to $55 million, $45 million at the midpoint.
- [26]
The midpoint overrun is about 18% of the $245 million projected loss.
- [27]
With production held at $125 million, the same theatrical-only sum gives a loss of about $200 million.
- [28]
A $50 million projected finish is about 14% of the $350 million break-even.
- [29]
Moving production cost from the midpoint to either end of the range shifts the reconstructed cost by $10 million.
- [30]
The film was greenlit at a reported $125 million.
- [31]
Production costs climbed to between $160 million and $180 million after filming ran over schedule.
- [32]
Warner Bros. has said the film cost $125 million to produce, though some industry experts and trade reports have estimated the cost was at least $160 million, citing production delays.
- [33]
Variety reports 'Digger' needs to gross about $350 million worldwide to break even, counting the marketing campaign and the roughly half of ticket sales that theaters keep. A Warner Bros. spokesperson told the outlet the break-even is closer to $300 million.
- [34]
A Warner Bros. spokesperson told Variety the break-even point is closer to $300 million.
- [35]
Theaters keep roughly half of ticket sales.
- [36]
At a half share, $350 million of gross returns $175 million to the studio.
- [37]
$95 million of the $270 million cost would have to come from non-ticket revenue for the $350 million break-even to hold.
- [38]
Subtracting $95 million of non-ticket revenue from the $245 million theatrical-only loss gives $150 million, equal to the Los Angeles Times floor.
Sources
2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- fortune.comTom Cruise’s ‘Digger’ could be one of Hollywood’s biggest flops ever, with a projected $245 million loss
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- latimes.comWarner Bros. could face loss of at least $150 million on 'Digger' after tepid box office
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