Global PC shipments fall 20% after the channel stocked up ahead of price hikes

Some of the PCs missing from IDC's third-quarter count were bought earlier in the year. Vendors and channels stocked up ahead of price hikes, IDC said, pulling demand out of the quarter ^[3]. Supply was still constrained, and the quarter got none of its usual seasonal lift ^[3]. Shipments landed 9.1% below the second quarter, Engadget reported ^[2].

Apple's share figure is the one people will quote. It rose from 8.5% to 9.5% of worldwide shipments ^[5]. What Apple actually did was ship 5.9 million Macs, against 6.7 million a year earlier. That is an 11.3% decline ^[4], or about 800,000 fewer machines ^[21]. Apple's share went up because it fell 11.3% while the market fell 20.1% ^[4][1]. The race for fourth is close. ASUS had the smallest decline of the top five, down 8.6% to 5.5 million units ^[15], which leaves Apple about 400,000 units ahead ^[22].

HP fell hardest of the top five, down 30.9% to 10.3 million units and a 16.5% share ^[6]. Working back from IDC's percentages, HP shipped about 14.9 million PCs a year earlier ^[17]. That is roughly what Lenovo, the market leader, shipped this quarter ^[7]. It puts HP's loss near 4.6 million units ^[18]. The whole market lost about 15.8 million units from a year-ago total of roughly 78.5 million ^[16][14], so HP accounts for about 29% of the drop ^[19]. Its share fell from about 19% to 16.5% ^[20][6].

A decline that size invites the reading that corporate fleet refreshes have stalled. The reported figures do not split HP's drop between business and consumer buyers, so they cannot settle that question. IDC's explanation for the whole market is about timing: purchases moved earlier in the year to beat price increases ^[3].

The stock bought early is now the channel's worry. "Channels are now worried about carrying too much inventory into a market where high prices are suppressing demand," Jitesh Ubrani, IDC's research director for consumer devices, said ^[10]. "That could translate into promotions and some short-term relief for consumers, but we don't expect pricing anywhere near what it was a year ago," he said ^[11]. IDC said the economy has weakened since the previous quarter, and that this could cut demand further and "darken the outlook for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027" ^[9]. The slide first showed in July, when IDC reported its first shipment decline in nine quarters. That came a few months after it cut its full-year forecast ^[13].

For whoever signs the refresh order, the decision comes down to two things. One is whether the machines have to be replaced within a quarter or two. The other is whether the model you want is on promotion out of channel stock.

- Must replace, promotion on offer: buy now. IDC expects near-term promotions on excess inventory ^[8]. - Must replace, no promotion: buy anyway and budget at current prices. IDC says pricing will stay well above year-ago levels ^[8]. - Can wait, promotion on offer: the discount is the only reason to move. With prices expected to stay high ^[8], it is a good enough reason. - Can wait, no promotion: Engadget's advice to hold off for at least another year applies here ^[23]. Ubrani also warned that the outlook could get "worse before it gets better" ^[12].