Europe lifts Korea's biopharma exports to a record $6.6 billion

Work the US figure backward and the loss is about $330 million: $1.07 billion after a 23.7% fall implies roughly $1.40 billion a year earlier ^[17]. On the growth rates Seoul Economic Daily reported, Switzerland, Hungary and the Netherlands added about $605 million between them ^[18]. Total exports rose by roughly $900 million ^[7]. That leaves about $630 million of growth from every other market, Italy, Belgium and France among them ^[9]. The headline figures are rounded to a tenth of a billion, so the remainder is approximate ^[19].

A year ago the US took about 24.6% of Korea's biopharma exports ^[8]. Yonhap puts its share now at 16.3% ^[3], and Switzerland trails the US by $60 million ^[10].

The European numbers can be read three ways. The first is the explanation from the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety: more contract manufacturing for drugmakers in Europe, plus biosimilar demand ^[4]. The second starts from what the ministry counts, which is exports by destination country ^[6]. Those figures do not show where the finished drug is eventually sold, so part of the US decline could be the same customers taking delivery in Europe. The third is timing. The monthly figures vary widely: July rose 54.3% and August 25.5%, then September fell 14.1%, a drop the ministry put down to fewer working days ^[13].

I think the growth will hold, and the geography is the part to discount. The third quarter grew 15.6% ^[2], close to the nine-month 15.8% ^[1]. July, August and September add up to the quarter's $2.07 billion ^[20], so the record does not depend on one strong month. The counter-thesis is the second reading. An investor who books the European gain as new end demand and the US drop as lost demand is pricing a split that destination data cannot confirm. Two results would prove this view wrong. A fourth quarter well below the nine-month growth rate would undercut the durability call. US shipments recovering while Swiss and Hungarian shipments keep growing would show the European demand is additional, and that discounting it was a mistake.

The two measures a ministry official described both target the businesses the ministry credits for Europe. "We plan to continue regulatory support, including easing requirements for submitting Phase 3 clinical trial and animal testing data when approving biosimilar products, within the scope that ensures safety," the official said ^[14]. "Once the special act on regulatory support for biopharmaceutical contract development and manufacturing companies takes effect this December, we also plan to pursue related support such as certification of raw materials," the official added ^[15].