BlackRock's $205.5 billion of third-quarter inflows exceeded the $150 billion rise in its assets
BlackRock reported adjusted third-quarter earnings of $15.93 a share against analyst estimates of $13.97 to $14.15. Performance fees supplied more than half of the revenue beat, and assets of $15.49 trillion came in below the $15.57 trillion analysts expected.
The Investor · Invest desk
Key figures: BlackRock assets under management reached a record $15.49 trillion in the third quarter, up from $15.34 trillion at second-quarter results in July, and below the $15.57 trillion analysts expected.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Assets under management, Q3 record | $15.49 trillion | 3 | |
| Assets at Q2 results, July | $15.34 trillion | 5 | |
| Analysts' expected assets | $15.57 trillion | 3 |
What happened
- Revenue climbed 19% to $7.75 billion, against roughly $7.4 billion expected, according to Yahoo Finance.
- Private markets drew $15.3 billion against $12.2 billion expected.
- Redemption requests at the HPS Corporate Lending Fund fell to roughly 11.5% of shares from 13.3% in the second quarter, according to CNBC.
Why it matters
- Who's exposed exposure Strip out the $199 million performance-fee beat and the revenue surprise is about $91 million, 1.2% of revenue.
- What it limits constraint Private credit's contribution cannot be checked: the third-quarter split is in neither report, and total private flows ran 0.6% below the second quarter.
- Who has to decide decision The roughly $28 billion already spent on acquisitions sits against a business drawing about 7% of new client money, so the case for that allocation depends on the revenue those assets earn per dollar.
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Quarter on quarter, BlackRock's assets grew by less than the money that came in. They were $15.34 trillion when the firm reported second-quarter results [5] and are $15.49 trillion now [4], a rise of about $150 billion [16], against $205.5 billion of net new client money [12]. If both figures hold, market moves and every other item netted to about minus $55 billion [35]. The totals are quoted in hundredths of a trillion, so that gap can move by perhaps $10 billion either way, not by fifty, and since neither report includes the asset roll-forward the split is our inference [35]. CNBC, as relayed by Quartz, put $134.5 billion of iShares inflows beside equity price appreciation as the cause of the year's expansion [13]. Over twelve months assets are up $2.03 trillion [17], room enough for both. On these figures the single quarter shows no help from prices.
Most of the revenue beat sits in one line. Revenue topped the $7.46 billion consensus Quartz took from the Associated Press by $290 million [18], and performance fees topped their $431 million forecast by $199 million [25], or 69% of that surprise [26]. Against Yahoo's looser benchmark of about $7.4 billion the share is 57% [27]. (Those are two publishers' consensus figures set side by side, so treat the percentages as a range.) Take out the $199 million and what remains is about $91 million, or 1.2% of revenue [28]. The stock rose nearly 4% premarket [15].
Private credit has the thinnest evidence. Net flows into private markets were $15.31 billion [6], 0.6% below the $15.4 billion of the second quarter [20], when private credit contributed $6 billion and infrastructure $5.2 billion [8]. The reports do not split the third-quarter figure. The total did beat the $12.2 billion analysts expected [7]. Against $205.5 billion of total net new money it is about 7% [19], after roughly $28 billion of acquisitions that included Global Infrastructure Partners, HPS and Preqin [22]. Larry Fink said: "BlackRock's ability to originate and structure at scale is leading to premier financing relationships and sourcing opportunities for our clients" [23], and he added that the firm's AI infrastructure fund made its first deployment in the quarter [24]. At the HPS Corporate Lending Fund, redemption requests fell to roughly 11.5% of shares from 13.3% in the second quarter, according to CNBC [21], an easing of 1.8 points [34].
This could play out differently in a few places. The published roll-forward may show a positive market contribution if the second-quarter total was restated. Performance fees of $630 million [11] may repeat. Private credit may turn out to be most of the $15.31 billion, well above the second quarter's $6 billion. Our view, with those caveats, is that the quarter was mostly an ETF-flow story with a performance-fee bonus: iShares took 65% of net new client money [29], and total flows beat expectations by $34 billion [30].
Flow share is not revenue share, so a 7% share of flows does not cap private markets at 7% of revenue. BlackRock's goal of more than $35 billion in annual revenue before the decade is out, with private markets and technology above 30% of it [14], needs more than $10.5 billion from those two [31]. Four times this quarter's $7.75 billion is $31 billion [32], so the target sits about 13% above the current run rate [33]. We would be wrong if the roll-forward shows prices adding to assets in the quarter, or if the private credit split lands far above $6 billion.
What to watch
- BlackRock's third-quarter asset roll-forward, to see whether market change was positive or negative and whether the $15.34 trillion second-quarter total was restated.
- The third-quarter split of the $15.31 billion private markets inflow, set against private credit's $6 billion in the second quarter.
- Fourth-quarter redemption requests at the HPS Corporate Lending Fund, measured against the 11.5% of shares requested this quarter.
Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives35
- Confidence70
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers- Builder
- Builder 13%
- Operator
- Operator 22%
- Investor
- Investor 65%
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
BlackRock's quarterly revenue was $7.75 billion, against the $7.46 billion analysts had projected.
- [2]
Revenue climbed 19% to $7.75 billion, compared with expectations of roughly $7.4 billion.
- [3]
BlackRock said assets under management rose 15% from a year earlier to a record $15.49 trillion, below analyst expectations of $15.57 trillion.
- [4]
Total assets under management rose to $15.49 trillion, compared with $13.46 trillion in the year-ago period.
- [5]
When BlackRock reported second-quarter results in July, assets under management had reached $15.34 trillion.
- [6]
Net flows into BlackRock's private markets reached $15.31 billion in the third quarter.
- [7]
BlackRock's private markets attracted $15.3 billion, exceeding the $12.2 billion expected.
- [8]
In the second quarter, private markets net inflows totaled $15.4 billion, with infrastructure drawing $5.2 billion and private credit contributing $6 billion.
- [9]
BlackRock's third-quarter adjusted earnings were $15.93 per share, against a consensus analyst estimate of $13.97 per share, according to the Associated Press.
- [10]
BlackRock reported adjusted net income of $2.62 billion, or $15.93 per share, exceeding the $14.15 per share analysts expected.
- [11]
BlackRock's performance fees were $630 million, well above the $431 million forecast.
- [12]
BlackRock attracted $205.5 billion in net new client money during the third quarter, compared with the $171.5 billion analysts expected.
- [13]
Behind the expansion in assets were $134.5 billion that investors put into BlackRock's iShares ETFs together with appreciation in equity market prices, according to CNBC.
- [14]
BlackRock has set a target of generating over $35 billion in annual revenue before the decade is out, with private markets and technology expected to account for more than 30% of that figure.
- [15]
BlackRock stock jumped nearly 4% in premarket trading on Wednesday.
- [16]
Assets under management rose about $150 billion between the second and third quarters.
- [17]
Assets are up $2.03 trillion over twelve months.
- [18]
Revenue beat the $7.46 billion consensus by $290 million.
- [19]
Private markets net flows were about 7% of net new client money.
- [20]
Third-quarter private markets flows were about 0.6% below second-quarter flows.
- [21]
Investor redemption requests from BlackRock's HPS Corporate Lending Fund fell to roughly 11.5% of shares in the third quarter, down from 13.3% in the second quarter.
- [22]
BlackRock has deployed roughly $28 billion on acquisitions including Global Infrastructure Partners, HPS Investment Partners and Preqin to build out its alternatives business, the company said.
- [23]
"BlackRock's ability to originate and structure at scale is leading to premier financing relationships and sourcing opportunities for our clients," Fink said.
- [24]
Fink added that BlackRock's AI infrastructure fund made its first deployment in the quarter.
- [25]
Performance fees beat their forecast by $199 million.
- [26]
The performance-fee beat is about 69% of the $290 million revenue beat.
- [27]
Against Yahoo's roughly $7.4 billion revenue expectation the performance-fee beat is about 57% of the revenue beat.
- [28]
Excluding the performance-fee beat, the revenue beat is about $91 million, roughly 1.2% of $7.75 billion revenue.
- [29]
iShares ETF inflows were about 65% of the quarter's net new client money.
- [30]
Net new client money beat expectations by $34 billion.
- [31]
Private markets and technology would need to supply more than $10.5 billion of a $35 billion revenue target.
- [32]
Third-quarter revenue annualised is about $31 billion.
- [33]
The $35 billion revenue target is about 13% above the annualised third-quarter run rate.
- [34]
HPS Corporate Lending Fund redemption requests eased by 1.8 percentage points.
- [35]
Net new client money exceeded the quarterly rise in assets by about $55 billion, implying market moves and other items netted to about minus $55 billion (an inference from rounded figures; no roll-forward was reported).
Sources
5 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
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- seekingalpha.comBlackRock Q3: The Earnings Upside Isn't Fully Priced In Yet
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- thedailyupside.comBlackRock’s Happy Place is at the Crossroads of All Global Capital
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Topics and entities
Topics
- Quarterly Earnings Results
- Asset management
- Exchange-traded funds
Entities
- HPS Investment Partners
- BlackRock
- Larry Fink
- Global Infrastructure Partners