Bernstein's $10 trillion prediction-market forecast pegs financial assets' half on a 0.5% capture rate
Bernstein has raised its ten-year prediction-market forecast tenfold, to $10 trillion of annual volume by 2035. Nearly half of that total comes from assuming the contracts capture 0.5% of a $900 trillion financial-asset pool.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- Bernstein now forecasts $10 trillion of annual prediction-market volume by 2035, up from an estimated $410 billion this year, a tenfold increase on the $1 trillion-by-2030 call it published in April.
- The note, led by Gautam Chhugani, has crypto, equities and commodity contracts growing from about 12% of volume in 2025 to 49% by 2035, while sports slips from 61% to 38%.
- Bernstein said full U.S. regulatory clarity for sports prediction markets is unlikely before 2027-28, citing conflicting court decisions on federal derivatives oversight and state gaming authority.
Why it matters
- What it limits constraint The financial-asset leg is a sensitivity: at 0.1% capture instead of 0.5%, the same $900 trillion pool yields about $900 billion of annual volume, and the headline total goes with it.
- What doesn't add up contradiction The two biggest venues disagree about the rotation: Polymarket's sports share went up this year, to about 52% from 39%, which is the opposite of the trend the forecast extrapolates.
- Who has to decide decision If the growth is in financial contracts, the build queue is KPI markets on single corporate metrics and single-stock perpetuals. That is engineering and listing work.
- Who's exposed exposure Which category compounds now shows up in a listed company's quarterly numbers: Robinhood's event-contract revenue reached $156 million in the second quarter of 2026, ten times its prior level.
Next story · Invest · Sep 21
Robinhood's August event volume ran 64% above its non-World-Cup paceConfirmed2 publishers
The 70% compounding assumption averages two very different years. Volume went from about $50 billion in 2025 to roughly $300 billion in the first eight months of 2026 [3], and Bernstein's own $410 billion full-year estimate makes 2026 an 8.2-fold year [19]. From there, $410 billion to $10 trillion across nine years needs about 43% a year [20]. The estimate also puts a slowdown into the back of this year: $300 billion over eight months is $37.5 billion a month, while the remaining $110 billion spread over four months is $27.5 billion [21].
Nearly half of the 2035 number comes out of one line in the model. Take 49% of $10 trillion and you get $4.9 trillion; Bernstein's bottom-up route to the same leg is 0.5% of a financial-asset pool it sizes at roughly $700 trillion today and $900 trillion in 2035, which produces about $4.7 trillion [6][22]. The published summaries of the note do not say how that pool was measured.
Bernstein names the products it expects to carry that leg. "We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself," the analysts wrote [7]. "Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps," they added [8].
Sports falling from 61% of volume to 38% is a statement about share. In dollars, 61% of $50 billion is about $30.5 billion and 38% of $10 trillion is $3.8 trillion, so the forecast has sports volume rising roughly 125-fold over the decade [25].
The rotation is uneven across venues. On Polymarket, sports accounted for about 52% of global volume in 2026 year to date against 39% in 2025, politics fell to 22% from 32%, and crypto was about 21% [14]. Kalshi's commodity growth is concentrated in one month: of roughly $590 million year to date, $410 million arrived in August, leaving about $180 million for everything before it [24]. Bernstein also lists 15-minute bitcoin contracts among the short-duration products behind this year's increase [15]. A contract that expires four times an hour recycles the same collateral many times a day, so notional volume can climb without new money arriving.
Robinhood's chief executive is talking the same way. "We're already seeing other categories like crypto taking a disproportionate share," Vlad Tenev told CNBC [16], and said: "I think within a few years, sports will actually be in the minority, similar to active trading at large" [17].
In my view the mix call is the better-supported half. Crypto's share of Kalshi volume went from under 5% in January to about 20% in August, which is a measured change [9], whereas the $10 trillion depends on a capture rate against a notional pool that nobody can observe yet [6]. The counter-case sits inside Bernstein's own data: Polymarket's sports share rose this year, not fell [14]. If financial-asset contracts are still near 12% of industry volume at the end of 2027, the 49% is a forecast about products that have yet to trade at size [4].
What to watch
- Whether Kalshi's commodity volume holds anywhere near August's $410 million monthly pace through the autumn, or reverts toward the earlier run rate.
- Court rulings on federal derivatives oversight against state gaming authority, the conflict Bernstein cites for pushing sports clarity to 2027-28.
- Robinhood's next event-contract revenue line, and whether it discloses the category mix behind it.
Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption60
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Bernstein forecasts annual prediction-market volume rising to $10 trillion by 2035, up from an estimated $410 billion in 2026.
- [2]
Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said in a note to clients on Tuesday that they expect volumes to compound at about 70% annually between 2025 and 2035.
- [3]
Industry-wide prediction-market activity rose from about $50 billion in 2025 to roughly $300 billion in 2026 through August.
- [4]
Bernstein's forecast has financial assets including crypto, equities and commodities growing from roughly 12% of volumes in 2025 to 49% by 2035, overtaking sports as the largest category.
- [5]
Bernstein expects sports' share of prediction-market volume to fall from 61% in 2025 to 38% by 2035.
- [6]
Bernstein estimates the addressable market for financial-asset contracts at roughly $700 trillion in 2025, rising to $900 trillion by 2035, and its model assumes prediction markets capture 0.5% of that pool by 2035, producing about $4.7 trillion in annual volume.
- [7]
"We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself," the analysts wrote.
- [8]
"Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps," the analysts wrote.
- [9]
Crypto's share of Kalshi's volume rose from less than 5% in January to about 20% in August, according to Bernstein's analysts.
- [10]
Kalshi commodity trading volume grew from less than $2 million in 2025 to roughly $590 million in 2026 year to date, including $410 million in August alone.
- [11]
Kalshi held about 60% of industry volume through August, up from 35% in 2025.
- [12]
Bernstein said ultimate regulatory clarity for U.S. sports prediction markets is unlikely before 2027-28, citing conflicting court decisions over federal derivatives oversight and state gaming authority.
- [13]
The new projection replaces Bernstein's April forecast of $1 trillion by 2030, which used an estimated $51 billion of 2025 volume as its base.
- [14]
On Polymarket, sports contracts accounted for about 52% of global volume in 2026 year to date versus 39% in 2025, politics was 22% against 32%, and crypto was about 21%, according to Bernstein.
- [15]
Short-duration contracts in crypto and commodities, including 15-minute bitcoin markets, contributed to 2026's volume increase, while sports volumes surged around the FIFA World Cup and remained at record levels after the tournament ended.
- [16]
"We're already seeing other categories like crypto taking a disproportionate share," Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev told CNBC.
- [17]
"I think within a few years, sports will actually be in the minority, similar to active trading at large," Tenev told CNBC.
- [18]
Robinhood's event-contract business posted a tenfold jump in revenue, to $156 million in the second quarter of 2026.
- [19]
Bernstein's 2026 estimate of $410 billion is about 8.2 times the roughly $50 billion of 2025 industry volume.
- [20]
Going from $410 billion in 2026 to $10 trillion in 2035 is a 24.4-fold increase over nine years, about 43% a year.
- [21]
The $300 billion recorded in eight months is $37.5 billion a month, while the $110 billion left in Bernstein's $410 billion full-year estimate is $27.5 billion a month over the final four months.
- [22]
Financial assets at 49% of a $10 trillion 2035 total is $4.9 trillion, close to the $4.7 trillion Bernstein's 0.5% capture assumption produces.
- [23]
A 0.1% capture of the same $900 trillion pool would produce about $900 billion of annual volume.
- [24]
Kalshi commodity volume outside August is about $180 million, roughly 31% of the year-to-date figure.
- [25]
Sports volume implied by the forecast rises about 125-fold, from roughly $30.5 billion in 2025 to $3.8 trillion in 2035.
Sources
2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- decrypt.coBernstein Predicts $10 Trillion Prediction Market by 2035—10X Its Original Forecast
1 article · September 22, 2026
- theblock.coBernstein sees annual prediction market volumes hitting $10 trillion by 2035 as financial assets overtake sports
1 article · September 22, 2026
Topics and entities
Topics
- Prediction Markets
- US derivatives and gaming regulation
- Event Contracts
- Perpetual futures
- Sell-Side Research