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Anthropic's Wednesday Q3 figures will help size a possible $2 trillion listing

Anthropic will show institutional investors its first third-quarter financials on Wednesday, ahead of a listing that could be valued near $2 trillion. Whether they move chip stocks, as OpenAI's did last week, depends on how partner revenue is counted.

The Investor · Invest desk

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Illustration accompanying Anthropic's Wednesday Q3 figures will help size a possible $2 trillion listing
Generated illustration
Possible listing would price Anthropic at 20x revenue Per CNBC, citing people familiar with the plans: Anthropic's possible listing value and its revenue estimate, with the multiple one gives the other.

Anthropic is proceeding with what could be a $2 trillion listing, based on revenue that could top $100 billion by the end of this year. A $2 trillion valuation on $100 billion of revenue is a multiple of 20 times revenue.

Possible listing would price Anthropic at 20x revenue
FigureValueNoteClaim
Possible Anthropic listing$2 trillion4
Anthropic revenue, could top$100 billionby the end of this year4
Multiple of revenue20 times revenue17

What happened

  • Bloomberg first reported that the meeting was taking place, and Anthropic declined to comment when CNBC asked.
  • Anthropic filed confidentially with the SEC earlier this year and has not made its S-1 financials public.
  • Chip stocks fell again Tuesday, extending an overnight sell-off over AI financing, after Broadcom's Hock Tan said Monday that access to capital could be the biggest constraint on AI companies.

Why it matters

  • What doesn't add up contradiction CNBC says private-lab revenue figures have an outsized market effect, but its one example is a single episode, and this week's chip decline has a separate financing explanation.
  • Who has to decide decision Anthropic's treatment of partner revenue decides whether its headline figure can be compared with OpenAI's at all.
  • What's now possible capability The closed meeting lets executives and bankers test investor reaction before any S-1 financials are public.
  • What it sets up precedent OpenAI's investor-only figure ended up moving the Nasdaq, so we'd expect Anthropic's numbers to be treated as public the moment they are shown.

The $50 billion OpenAI gave its investors sits $20 billion below the $70 billion that had been widely reported [18], or 28.6% of the higher figure [19]. According to a person familiar with the matter, the updated number stripped out revenue from cloud partners and was not an indication of changing demand [9]. The confusion that dragged down semiconductor stocks and the Nasdaq last week [7] was therefore a dispute over what counts as revenue.

Anthropic's version of that problem is unresolved. CNBC wrote that it is unclear whether Anthropic will account for sales the same way and include partner revenue [10]. The valuation depends on the answer. People familiar with the plans put a possible listing at $2 trillion, based on revenue that could top $100 billion by the end of this year [4], which is a multiple of 20 [17] (the article does not say whether the $100 billion is annual revenue or a run rate). Remove the same 28.6% that separated OpenAI's two figures and $100 billion becomes $71.4 billion [23], and the multiple becomes about 28 [24]. That is an illustration. Nothing in the sources says Anthropic's partner share is the same size as OpenAI's.

We think the Wednesday figures matter to chip stocks mainly through comparability. If Anthropic states plainly whether partner revenue is in or out, the number is a data point. If it does not, the market has a second round of last week's confusion. The counter-thesis is that definitions are the smaller factor: CNBC expects the figures to give investors a more accurate snapshot of growth and profitability [16], and a weak snapshot would hurt AI names whatever the accounting.

Cryptobriefing quotes prediction-market pricing, from a venue it did not disclose [22], that gives a 68.5% chance of an IPO by December 31 [21]. That leaves 31.5% for no listing this year [25], against Reuters's report of a November listing that people familiar with the plans could not confirm [6]. The same pricing puts 26% on a market capitalisation between $1.75 trillion and $2.0 trillion [20], a band whose top edge is the $2 trillion figure in circulation [4].

Anthropic has chosen a closed room over a public filing. It filed confidentially with the SEC earlier this year and has not made its S-1 financials public [5]. In our view that limits how far Wednesday's figures travel to what attendees repeat. We would be wrong on definitions if a clearly labelled figure, with partner revenue stated either way, still moved chip stocks, because the level of AI-lab revenue would then matter to them and not only its definition. We would be wrong on reach if the figures never leave the room.

What to watch

  • Whether Anthropic's figure includes cloud-partner revenue, and whether it is stated on the same basis as OpenAI's $50 billion.
  • A public S-1 with financials and a listing date; Reuters says November, and people familiar with the plans have not confirmed it.
  • How chip stocks trade after the meeting: a fall on a clearly defined number would show that revenue levels, not definitions, are what move them.

Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.

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What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.

Reality

Evidence35
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Confidence60

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Claim ledger

Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.

  1. [1]

    Anthropic plans to disclose its third-quarter financials for the first time at a meeting with potential investors on Wednesday, as it prepares for what could be the largest IPO in history.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBCView cited source
  2. [2]

    Anthropic will release the numbers to a group of institutional investors, according to two people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBC, citing two anonymous people familiar with the matterView cited source
  3. [3]

    Bloomberg first reported that the meeting was happening, and Anthropic declined to comment.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBCView cited source
  4. [4]

    Anthropic is proceeding with what could be a $2 trillion listing, based on its latest reported revenue numbers, which could top $100 billion by the end of this year, according to people familiar with the plans.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBC, citing people familiar with the plansView cited source
  5. [5]

    Anthropic filed confidentially with the SEC earlier this year but has not made its S-1 financials public.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBCView cited source
  6. [6]

    According to Reuters, Anthropic will list in November, but people familiar with the plans could not confirm a listing date.

    Reported Supported Source: Reuters, as reported by CNBCView cited source
  7. [7]

    Last week, confusion around a report detailing OpenAI's revenue and updated accounting dragged down major semiconductor stocks and the broader Nasdaq.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBCView cited source
  8. [8]

    OpenAI shared an updated revenue number of $50 billion with current investors as part of an ongoing fundraise, lower than the $70 billion that had been widely reported.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBCView cited source
  9. [9]

    The updated OpenAI number stripped out revenue from cloud partners and was not an indication of changing demand, according to a person familiar with the matter.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBC, citing an anonymous person familiar with the matterView cited source
  10. [10]

    It is unclear whether Anthropic will account for sales in the same manner as OpenAI and include partner revenue.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBCView cited source
  11. [11]

    Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said at a conference on Monday that with rates climbing, access to capital could be the biggest constraint on AI companies.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBC, reporting Hock TanView cited source
  12. [12]

    Chip stocks were lower Tuesday, extending an overnight sell-off sparked by worries over the durability of AI financing.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBCView cited source
  13. [13]

    The meeting will help Anthropic senior executives and bankers gauge investor interest and weigh the reaction to the updated financials.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBCView cited source
  14. [14]

    Market conditions are one of the biggest factors in Anthropic's IPO, and bankers are closely watching investor appetite for growth and AI stocks.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBCView cited source
  15. [15]

    Revenue numbers from the private AI giants have proven to have an outsized impact on broader markets.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBCView cited source
  16. [16]

    The numbers this week will give investors a more accurate snapshot of Anthropic's growth and profitability as they look to value the company ahead of an IPO.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBCView cited source
  17. [17]

    A $2 trillion valuation on $100 billion of revenue is a multiple of 20 times revenue.

    Derived Supported
  18. [18]

    The gap between the widely reported OpenAI figure and the figure given to investors is $20 billion.

    Derived Supported
  19. [19]

    The $20 billion gap is 28.6% of the $70 billion widely reported figure.

    Derived Supported
  20. [20]

    Prediction-market activity indicates a 26% probability that Anthropic's IPO-day market cap lands between $1.75 trillion and $2.0 trillion.

    Reported Insufficient Source: Cryptobriefing, citing prediction marketsView cited source
  21. [21]

    Prediction markets price a 68.5% likelihood of the Anthropic IPO occurring by December 31, 2026.

    Reported Insufficient Source: Cryptobriefing, citing prediction marketsView cited source
  22. [22]

    The Cryptobriefing report cites prediction-market probabilities without naming the market or venue.

    Reported Insufficient Source: CryptobriefingView cited source
  23. [23]

    Illustration only: removing 28.6% from $100 billion leaves about $71.4 billion.

    Derived Insufficient
  24. [24]

    Illustration only: $2 trillion on $71.4 billion of revenue is a multiple of about 28 times.

    Derived Insufficient
  25. [25]

    A 68.5% chance of an IPO by December 31 leaves 31.5% for no listing by that date.

    Derived Insufficient

Sources

3 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.

  1. cnbc.com

    1 article · October 13, 2026

    Anthropic to disclose new revenue numbers as AI lab financials become central to tech trade
  2. cryptobriefing.com

    2 articles · October 13, 2026

    Anthropic to reveal Q3 financials ahead of expected November IPO: CNBC
  3. qz.com

    1 article · October 13, 2026

    Anthropic’s investor meeting comes a week after OpenAI’s revenue number spooked markets
  4. thehindubusinessline.com

    1 article · October 13, 2026

    Anthropic is said to plan pre-IPO investor day as listing nears - The HinduBusinessLine

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