Card-spend data puts 29 of the 50 top-spending AI vendors off a16z's traffic charts

The three charts count different things. The web list ranks 50 products by monthly visits using Similarweb data, and the mobile list ranks 50 apps by monthly active users using Sensor Tower ^[18]. The spend view comes from YipitData and also covers desktop products and agents used inside messaging apps ^[3]. A tool used through a desktop client or a chat app can collect real spend while barely registering as a web visit or an app session ^[18][3].

That splits the 29 top spenders missing from both traffic charts ^[5] into two groups. Some have traffic and rank below 50th. Others sit where the traffic panels do not look. Only the first group shows traffic and spending diverging, and the report as summarized does not break the 29 down. The remaining 21 appear on at least one traffic chart ^[19].

I think the better evidence sits inside the three model companies, because the same two panels measure all of them. ChatGPT leads Gemini about two to one in August web visits and Claude six to one ^[14]. ChatGPT's mobile leads over the two are 2.5 times and 14 times ^[15]. In paid U.S. consumer subscribers, the panel puts ChatGPT at about three times either rival ^[16]. Gemini therefore draws roughly three times Claude's web traffic ^[21], and a16z says Claude passed Gemini in subscribers earlier this year ^[2]. Measured as subscribers per web visit, Claude converts at about twice ChatGPT's rate and Gemini at about two-thirds of it ^[22].

Spending among payers is steep. The top 10% account for roughly half of observed spend ^[10], and the top 1% for 19.5%, at an average of $903 a month in August ^[11]. The median payer spent $25 ^[12]. A flat subscription caps a monthly bill, so I'd expect usage and credit pricing ^[17] to account for much of that tail. The top-1% share and average together imply a mean of about $46 a month per payer ^[23], close to twice the median ^[24].

Card spending in a panel is not a company's total revenue ^[4]. The panel tracks U.S. consumer cards ^[1], so a work tool paid for on a company card does not appear in it. For the vendor ranking to stand in for revenue, the panel's payers would have to resemble each vendor's customers, and personal cards would have to carry most purchases of these work tools. The usage numbers also use a different denominator from the subscription share, which counts eligible consumers in YipitData's receipt panel ^[9]. The report puts AI use at nearly half of U.S. adults, with about a quarter using it daily ^[7]. Pew Research Center's June survey found 49% had used AI chatbots ^[8].