Brent rose to $101.80 on Wednesday after a Gulf storm curtailed 185,120 barrels a day of US offshore crude and Houthi strikes damaged two Saudi airports. That loss is small beside Middle East shut-ins, so the bigger fourth-quarter cost risk runs through Gulf refineries into diesel.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 33%
- Investor
- Investor 62%
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−15
- Incentives45
- Confidence60
Brent sits $2.56 above $100, barely more than its latest one-day gain
Brent traded at $102.56 a barrel on Sept. 30, up $2.37 in a day and $35.87 above a year earlier, a rise of about 54%. Any plan that counts on oil staying above $100 depends on a $2.56 margin, and a drop the size of the latest gain would nearly wipe it out.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50
Escorted Hormuz oil flows give Iran more reason to escalate before the midterms, analysts say
Analysts expect Iran to drag the war past the Nov. 3 midterms, even as U.S.-escorted Middle East oil exports climb to almost 13 million barrels a day. Their case is that the escorted barrels cost Tehran leverage and leave escalation as one of its two remaining options.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence45
Crude had a reserve to tap and refined product does not, which is why taking roughly 3% of global diesel supply out of the market has pushed the US pump average to an all-time high with the squeeze still building.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives45
- Confidence60
Brent's year-over-year gain reaches roughly 49% at $99.27 a barrel
Fortune's morning check puts Brent at $99.27, about $32.60 above last September and $2.34 below yesterday. Crude is more than half the cost of a gallon, so that annual move implies over 24% on retail fuel.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives58
- Confidence45
Brent at $101.61 puts a 52% year into more than half of every gallon
Fortune priced Brent at $101.61 a barrel on Sept. 21, about $34.68 above a year earlier, for an implied base of $66.93. Crude is typically more than half the price of a gallon, and that is where the rise gets paid.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives55
- Confidence52
Washington's claim on 65 billion Venezuelan barrels translates into about 200,000 a day
Leaving OPEC would not lift a production target Venezuela is currently exempt from, so the interim government would be trading away a vote for nothing measurable, at the moment the White House says it controls the reserves.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+58
- Incentives62
- Confidence42
The SPR's usable room is 40.6 million barrels, not 714 million
Crude in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down to roughly 293 million barrels, and federal law halts routine drawdowns at 252.4 million. The gap between them is the whole tool.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+36
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence33
The reserve fell below 300 million barrels for the first time since the 1980s, and the argument is no longer about willingness to release oil. It is about salt.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives74
- Confidence62
The SPR Falls Below 300 Million Barrels, And With It A Free Option You Were Holding
US emergency crude stocks are at their lowest since 1983, according to NPR. Prediction markets moved the odds of a record crude price by December 31 from 10% to 12.5%.
Reality
- Evidence22
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives72
- Confidence28