The creep was about 10 millimetres a month, far too slow to trip any threshold set in advance. Manoochehr Shirzaei's preliminary read is that nobody was screening for the change in its rate.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Penn State researchers found Masaya's caldera sank then rose across six years of satellite radar, while its Santiago crater deflated throughout. The authors read that as two reservoirs behaving separately, something monitoring has to account for at a volcano within 21 km of 2 million people.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 38%
- Operator
- Operator 57%
- Investor
- Investor 5%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives20
- Confidence58
Petermann's 76-square-kilometer ice island survived its first collision intact
The August berg was the largest Arctic calving since 2020, but it broke along a fracture the team watching Petermann had not expected, leaving two rifts that together outline more than twice the area that left.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap0
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence66
Two radars looking from opposite sides caught Erta Ale sinking during Hayli Gubbi's eruption
Wenbin Xu's team combined NISAR's left-looking radar with Sentinel-1's right-looking passes over Ethiopia's Afar Depression. The largest ground motion during November's Hayli Gubbi eruption sat next door, at Erta Ale.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives60
- Confidence52
A master's project mapped 39,619 grounded icebergs holding Antarctic sea ice in place
A University of Tasmania master's project has produced the first continent-wide, high-resolution census of the icebergs grounded around Antarctica, the anchors that keep coastal fast ice from drifting off into the Southern Ocean.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives55
- Confidence60
A Sentinel-1 radar pass caught the Aug. 4 break at Greenland's Petermann Glacier a day early. The two rifts still holding cover about 2.3 times the area that just left.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption61
- Hype gap+9
- Incentives57
- Confidence68