Mike Selig's CFTC put one rule into force Friday and proposed another defining event contracts as swaps under its sole oversight, with 30 days for comment. States have won two of three federal appellate rulings so far, and the Supreme Court has been asked to settle the fight.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 12%
- Operator
- Operator 51%
- Investor
- Investor 37%
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence70
Blockchain.com has applied for two CFTC licenses to offer US prediction markets and crypto derivatives ahead of an IPO targeting $4 billion to $6 billion. Until the agency rules, buyers of the roughly $500 million raise Crypto Briefing reported would be paying partly for a US business that exists only as a pending application.
Perspective Coverage
11 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 15%
- Operator
- Operator 46%
- Investor
- Investor 39%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption15
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence65
Kalshi and its investor Paradigm sat with Coinbase, Ripple and Chainlink at the White House, one day before the CFTC's new advisory committee met. The seating chart is the substance.
Perspective Coverage
9 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 19%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 43%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives65
- Confidence55
Bitwise's Matt Hougan says the Senate's 49-50 cloture failure will not end the crypto rally, and points to a summer in which prices rose as the odds of passage halved. Only Congress can give the CFTC spot authority.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 13%
- Investor
- Investor 80%
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
Better Markets says the CFTC lacks the mandate to police leveraged retail crypto under the plan it floated on October 5. Its harder objection for the agency to answer is legal: the group says the statute the CFTC relies on was written for leveraged precious-metals fraud.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives65
- Confidence60
Sports contracts run above 80% of a market that went from $2bn in August 2025 to $38.5bn. Whether the justices take New Jersey's petition this fall will decide which compliance bill the industry pays.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence58
CFTC and SEC start writing crypto rules under existing law after the Senate blocks the Clarity Act
CFTC Chair Mike Selig says his agency will write crypto rules under existing law, with two prerules already filed at the White House. Decrypt's newsletter argues the agency can reach leveraged products such as perpetual futures, while spot trading still needs Congress.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence45
Armstrong publishes his defense before the Journal publishes its story
The Coinbase CEO says the Wall Street Journal is preparing to blame him for the CLARITY Act's Senate defeat, and he has put his own account of January on the record while the SEC and CFTC say they will write crypto's rules themselves.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives85
- Confidence45
Bitcoin's 20% week was a Treasury trade, and gold is the proof
Treasury's surprise move to at least double long-bond buybacks sold the dollar and lifted gold and bitcoin together. Bitcoin ran about 1.7 times gold's move off the June lows.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives74
- Confidence40
Two agencies now hold the pen on crypto rules, and Congress is the slower option
The SEC proposed exempt-offering caps, the CFTC threatened to write its own regime, and Trump asked for a Clarity Act he can sign. The US rulebook gets drafted either way.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives70
- Confidence52
The SEC's crypto safe harbour turns a whitepaper roadmap into a legal exit condition
Regulation Crypto Assets pairs two offering exemptions with a way out of the investment-contract test. The White House lunch the next day was the political weather, not the rule.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives84
- Confidence46
A King County judge sorted Kalshi's markets into two piles: sports and politics must be geofenced by September 2, while commodities, climate, economics and finance stay live.
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption48
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives72
- Confidence74