MSCI adopted rules that bar non-operating companies from its global indexes, putting Strategy and Metaplanet at risk after the Nov. 30 close. The final list is due Nov. 11, and any selling by index-tracking funds depends on who is on it.
Perspective Coverage
12 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 24%
- Investor
- Investor 71%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives55
- Confidence74
Strive bought 2,822 bitcoin at about $83,266 each, lifting its treasury to 35,595 BTC, 18 more than MARA's 35,577. At $82,000 that margin is worth about $1.5 million, and Strategy still holds roughly 24 times as much.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives58
- Confidence68
Metaplanet's 52 billion yen convertible could issue about twice the shares it just bought back
Metaplanet spent about 19.31 billion yen on 73,981,400 of its own shares on October 14 while arranging a 52 billion yen convertible. Full conversion would issue about 153 million shares, roughly twice the count retired.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence65
Metaplanet will send up to 28.3 billion yen of a 52 billion yen zero-coupon convertible to share buybacks and 23.6 billion yen to Bitcoin-backed loans. Its borrowing stood at 17.7% of Bitcoin net asset value in September, against a 10% policy ceiling.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 35%
- Investor
- Investor 58%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives55
- Confidence72
Strive added 3,311 BTC in a week to reach 32,773 BTC, CEO Matt Cole said on October 13. He also reported about $208 million of warrant exercises, or roughly 7.7 million shares at the $27 strike if that is cash.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 23%
- Investor
- Investor 72%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives58
- Confidence74
Proving it would sell its Bitcoin cost Metaplanet about ¥11.57 billion
Metaplanet sold 10,000 Bitcoin and bought back 11,000 at a 9.3% higher price, paying about ¥11.57 billion extra on the coins it replaced. The sale was meant to show prospective lenders, as the company pursues a credit rating, that it will turn coins into cash.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives68
- Confidence58
Strive bought 2,000 bitcoin for $169 million last week, its biggest buy in four months, while its $90,170 average cost sat above a price near $86,000. Its $284.7 million in cash also has to pay a roughly 13% preferred dividend, so further buying depends on selling more SATA.
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence72
Strategy spent $176 million buying back its STRC preferred last week, about six times the $28.7 million it paid for 334 bitcoin. At $85,838.80 a coin, even that small purchase lifted the company's $75,440.70 average cost.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 16%
- Investor
- Investor 79%
Reality
- Evidence85
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence80
Metaplanet sold 10,000 bitcoin at $78,925 and bought 11,000 back at $86,246, paying about $73 million more to replace the coins it sold. The Japanese company says the trades show rating agencies it will turn bitcoin into cash for creditors.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 35%
- Investor
- Investor 60%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives70
- Confidence62
Metaplanet will fund most bitcoin buying with equity, chiefly perpetual preferred, and hold credit-line borrowing under about 10% of its BTC value. Its new room for income businesses also means the 1.0x mNAV test it applies before selling common shares no longer isolates a premium on the coins.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives68
- Confidence60
MSCI's Aug. 3 proposal to drop "non-operating companies" from its indexes would remove Strategy and Metaplanet, according to MSCI's own simulation. JPMorgan analysts put Strategy's potential outflows from benchmark-tracking funds at about $2.8 billion in 2025.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence62
Metaplanet cuts an executive option pool that had grown to a fifth of its diluted count
Metaplanet's board pulled back grant terms that expanded with every equity raise, cutting the potential share pool by about 41 percent and lifting bitcoin per fully diluted share 8.8 percent without buying a coin.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives72
- Confidence50
Metaplanet answers a 17% slide by cutting its option units from 696 shares each to 410
A 17% two-day selloff got Metaplanet's board to take 131.27 million potential shares out of its contested option pool in four days, and to add a new CFO, a Hong Kong arm and a December capital vote.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives76
- Confidence46
Smarter Web freed £132.5m of distributable reserves before asking London for £25m
The Bristol company wants £15m to £25m for MORE shares, a sterling perpetual preferred backed by 2,878 bitcoin, and the High Court cleared the dividend capacity in July, before any prospectus existed.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives72
- Confidence45
Metaplanet breaks the clause that kept management at a fifth of the company
The board froze an option pool that had grown nearly sevenfold to 319 million rights and cut the plan by 41%, a reduction worth about $123m that leaves management with a claim on roughly 13% of the diluted company.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
Strategy sells 6,948 bitcoin at about $62,000 each to keep its preferred dividends paid
The company that vowed never to sell has taken $432.5 million out of its own reserve since May, and the dollars now sit in two accounts, one ring-fenced for dividends and interest, the other still free to buy bitcoin.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption64
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives74
- Confidence42
Bitcoin's 23.5% week was a Treasury trade, and Treasury can take it back
US debt crossed $40 trillion and the interest bill now tops Medicare. The buyback that helped move gold and bitcoin was $4 billion, or one hundredth of one percent of the stock.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption44
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives74
- Confidence45
Zhibao Technology took in $154.7 million entirely in coins, weeks after a Nasdaq bid-price notice and a going-concern warning. This is balance-sheet triage dressed as treasury strategy.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption42
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives74
- Confidence66
The Tokyo-listed treasury firm is committing about $134.6 million in coins and cash for 95.7% of Super League. Shareholders and regulators in two countries still have to sign off.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 8%
- Operator
- Operator 25%
- Investor
- Investor 67%
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption26
- Hype gap+27
- Incentives68
- Confidence66
Strategy sold $333.7M of stock to pay its preferred holders, not to buy bitcoin
The 840,447-coin stack sat untouched for a week while common shareholders funded a $52.4M dividend and a $132.2M preferred buyback. Cash coverage now runs 2.8 years.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption46
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives66
- Confidence57