Alaskan lake cores show hillslope erosion running 2 to 3 times higher on patchy permafrost
Özpolat and colleagues found hillslope erosion 2 to 3 times more intense under discontinuous permafrost, using cores from 12 Alaska lakes. The cores come from landscapes near their present state, and the authors say the gap may be site-specific.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Seventeen inches of sea-level rise weakens the Chesapeake's storm surge damping in a Virginia Tech model
Virginia Tech modelers ran 90 synthetic storms against 2050 sea levels and found the Chesapeake Bay damps storm surge less than it does today. The size of that loss is worded in a way that supports two readings.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Santer-led review says the case for human-caused warming has strengthened since 2009
Benjamin Santer's team argues more than 30 years of fingerprint research make the human-warming case stronger than in 2009. Their Earth's Future review answers a July 2025 Department of Energy report that questioned the science behind the EPA's Endangerment Finding.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives55
- Confidence55
Six months of combined drought and heat hit 75% of tropical forests in the 2023-24 El Niño
Ghent and Campinas researchers found about 75% of tropical forest area had six or more months of simultaneous drought and heat during the 2023-24 El Niño. Their models make that exposure typical within 20 years unless emissions are cut, with the Amazon at greatest risk.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50
European sorghum yields rise 13 to 27% in INRAE and AgroParisTech warming simulations
INRAE and AgroParisTech simulations project mean European sorghum yields rising from 3 to 3.4-3.8 tonnes a hectare by 2050-2100. The crop already suits far more land than the 0.1% of cropland it occupies, so whether it replaces maize in feed depends on what farmers plant and what livestock producers put in feed rations.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption3
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence40
El Niño and Atlantic warming flag Amazon March-May heat up to seven months ahead
Researchers writing in Earth's Future found that extreme March-May heat in the Amazon follows El Niño and tropical Atlantic warmth by up to seven months. That could give fire and water managers months of notice, based on a statistical record spanning 74 years.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Max Planck researchers argue in Earth's Future that most votes cast in the 12-to-4 rejection of an Anthropocene epoch were invalid under IUGS rules. They ask the geology union to publish the records behind the decision and open the process to an independent review.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence55
A 1,000-tonne sulfur release is the largest sun-dimming trial researchers put on the table
A study in Earth's Future sorts proposed outdoor solar geoengineering experiments into stages of tightening regulatory scrutiny, with the biggest one releasing a tiny fraction of a year of deployment.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−12
- Incentives66
- Confidence54
Measuring Arctic buildings in three dimensions puts permafrost's mid-century damage at $261 billion
Mapping Arctic buildings by height rather than footprint lifts the projected mid-century rebuilding bill from $110 billion to $261 billion, a correction that could only run upward once floors entered the exposure model.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption16
- Hype gap+17
- Incentives62
- Confidence54
Appalachia carries 55 percent of US landslide exposure with the least means to mitigate it
A study in Earth's Future overlaid American landslide susceptibility with local socioeconomics for the first time. Where the maps are reddest, the households underneath them have the least money to engineer a slope or leave it.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives38
- Confidence58
Drought extent explains 74% of wheat price swings, which makes water a procurement number
New work in Earth's Future turns multi-region drought into the one wheat price input a buyer can count rather than argue about.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives58
- Confidence49