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Earth's Future

Peer-reviewed open-access journal publishing interdisciplinary research on Earth's environment, climate, and sustainability.

Known aliases

  • Earth’s Future
  • Earths Future

Current stories

scienceOne report1 publisher

Alaskan lake cores show hillslope erosion running 2 to 3 times higher on patchy permafrost

Özpolat and colleagues found hillslope erosion 2 to 3 times more intense under discontinuous permafrost, using cores from 12 Alaska lakes. The cores come from landscapes near their present state, and the authors say the gap may be site-specific.

Publishers:eos.org phys.org

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap−5
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence58
scienceOne report1 publisher

Seventeen inches of sea-level rise weakens the Chesapeake's storm surge damping in a Virginia Tech model

Virginia Tech modelers ran 90 synthetic storms against 2050 sea levels and found the Chesapeake Bay damps storm surge less than it does today. The size of that loss is worded in a way that supports two readings.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence55
scienceOne report1 publisher

Santer-led review says the case for human-caused warming has strengthened since 2009

Benjamin Santer's team argues more than 30 years of fingerprint research make the human-warming case stronger than in 2009. Their Earth's Future review answers a July 2025 Department of Energy report that questioned the science behind the EPA's Endangerment Finding.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+12
Incentives55
Confidence55
scienceOne report1 publisher

Six months of combined drought and heat hit 75% of tropical forests in the 2023-24 El Niño

Ghent and Campinas researchers found about 75% of tropical forest area had six or more months of simultaneous drought and heat during the 2023-24 El Niño. Their models make that exposure typical within 20 years unless emissions are cut, with the Amazon at greatest risk.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence50
scienceOne report1 publisher

European sorghum yields rise 13 to 27% in INRAE and AgroParisTech warming simulations

INRAE and AgroParisTech simulations project mean European sorghum yields rising from 3 to 3.4-3.8 tonnes a hectare by 2050-2100. The crop already suits far more land than the 0.1% of cropland it occupies, so whether it replaces maize in feed depends on what farmers plant and what livestock producers put in feed rations.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption3
Hype gap+30
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence40
scienceOne report1 publisher

El Niño and Atlantic warming flag Amazon March-May heat up to seven months ahead

Researchers writing in Earth's Future found that extreme March-May heat in the Amazon follows El Niño and tropical Atlantic warmth by up to seven months. That could give fire and water managers months of notice, based on a statistical record spanning 74 years.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence55
scienceOne report1 publisher

A 1,000-tonne sulfur release is the largest sun-dimming trial researchers put on the table

A study in Earth's Future sorts proposed outdoor solar geoengineering experiments into stages of tightening regulatory scrutiny, with the biggest one releasing a tiny fraction of a year of deployment.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence57
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap−12
Incentives66
Confidence54
scienceOne report1 publisher

Measuring Arctic buildings in three dimensions puts permafrost's mid-century damage at $261 billion

Mapping Arctic buildings by height rather than footprint lifts the projected mid-century rebuilding bill from $110 billion to $261 billion, a correction that could only run upward once floors entered the exposure model.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence57
Adoption16
Hype gap+17
Incentives62
Confidence54
scienceOne report1 publisher

Appalachia carries 55 percent of US landslide exposure with the least means to mitigate it

A study in Earth's Future overlaid American landslide susceptibility with local socioeconomics for the first time. Where the maps are reddest, the households underneath them have the least money to engineer a slope or leave it.

Publishers:sciencenews.org

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption34
Hype gap+8
Incentives38
Confidence58
scienceOne report1 publisher

Drought extent explains 74% of wheat price swings, which makes water a procurement number

New work in Earth's Future turns multi-region drought into the one wheat price input a buyer can count rather than argue about.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence54
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+34
Incentives58
Confidence49