Benchmark
CME Group's online tool that converts fed funds futures prices into market-implied probabilities of Federal Reserve rate changes at upcoming FOMC meetings.
The dollar index is set for a 0.45% weekly fall, CNA reported, yet it rose on Wednesday when tech stocks sold off. The case that AI stress no longer lifts the dollar rests on one session and a conditional forecast.
Reality
Dollar index slid 0.25% to 102.29 on Tuesday, just under its 18-month high, as traders bet Middle East tension stays contained before the midterms. Wednesday's CPI tests a Fed priced at an 80% hold this month and 75bp of tightening by late 2027.
Reality
BLS revisions cut 60,000 jobs from July and August payrolls, turning July into a 10,000 loss, before September added just 29,000. With August PCE inflation at 3.4%, the case for another hike after the Fed's September move to 3.75%-4% now rests mostly on prices.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
September payrolls of 29,000, against an 84,000 consensus, lifted the Nasdaq 1.2% on Friday and turned a losing week into a 0.45% gain. Every major index was down through Thursday, so the AI-led advance depends on the Fed staying on hold.
Reality
Bitcoin gained about 3% to $79,000 and took back its 50-week average at $77,430 after Trump said Iran wants a deal. Crude dipped but held above $100, and CME's FedWatch tool puts Wednesday's quarter-point hike at 92.7%.
Reality