Oracle issued a force majeure notice on Blue Owl's Jupiter campus, whose reported $18bn of bank loans already trade below 90 cents on the dollar. Lenders who priced Oracle's credit now also have to price who pays when the power arrives late.
Perspective Coverage
12 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 4%
- Operator
- Operator 22%
- Investor
- Investor 74%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives65
- Confidence55
Oracle sent Project Jupiter's developer a force majeure notice that lets it delay payments if the New Mexico campus misses its 2028 target. The site's gas pipeline and air permit are both still pending, so capacity plans built on that date need a fallback.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 13%
- Operator
- Operator 39%
- Investor
- Investor 48%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives68
- Confidence64
Oracle shares fell more than 6% on Thursday after it sent a force majeure notice to Blue Owl over Project Jupiter, its New Mexico AI data center. The notice protects Oracle's cash if the site runs late and makes its 2028 date the one lenders and investors now watch.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 40%
- Investor
- Investor 53%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence60
buildOne report1 publisher Oracle's force majeure notice puts power on Project Jupiter's critical path
Oracle invoked force majeure on Project Jupiter, a New Mexico AI campus for OpenAI now expected to run about a year late. The delay postpones the higher post-completion return on Blue Owl's roughly $3 billion of equity.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence55
Footnotes at nine tech companies now hold $3 trillion of unstarted AI commitments
About $1.2 trillion of data-center leases that have not begun and $1.9 trillion of chip and equipment purchase agreements sit in the footnotes of nine tech firms whose capex over the past year was around $600 billion.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives60
- Confidence35
Private Credit's Queue Problem: 7.9% Of NAV At BCRED, Up To 41% At Blue Owl
Redemption demand is now hitting the caps that semi-liquid funds always disclosed and few buyers priced. The gate, not the default rate, is the risk allocators underwrote.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives62
- Confidence36