Trump said on Truth Social that South Korea's $50 billion investment in Alaska LNG is part of its trade deal. The Korea Herald reported that Seoul says no final investment decision has been made. Investors should treat the $50 billion as unconfirmed until one is.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+65
- Incentives75
- Confidence70
Taiwan's economy ministry said it plans to buy 6 million tons a year of Alaska LNG and invest up to $4.4 billion in the project. The equity stake and timeline that would let lenders underwrite the pipeline are still to be negotiated.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives65
- Confidence65
New York Fed economists estimate Trump's tariffs had raised US consumer goods prices 2.9 points by February 2026. The inflation effect has since peaked, but the higher price level persists and the researchers expect the tariff impact to carry into next year.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Trump's choice of tariff statute hands the Canada repeal vote to Republican chairmen
Last year a single senator could force the Senate to vote on Canada tariffs under the emergency powers law. Sen. Tim Kaine says the nearly century-old statute Trump used this time has no such motion.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives65
- Confidence48
Academy Sports sold $72.2 million of tariff claims for 14.5 cents on the dollar
A secondary market in refunded IEEPA duties is quoting the same asset at prices between 14.5 cents and 87 cents, and the consumer companies taking the cash are spending it on price cuts, vendor make-goods and 401(k) contributions.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives68
- Confidence55
Importers are selling tariff refund claims at 80 cents on the dollar
February's 6-3 Supreme Court ruling left the federal government owing importers somewhere between $166 billion and $175 billion in voided tariffs. The companies collecting it are now deciding whether the money is theirs to keep.
Reality
- Evidence20
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives60
- Confidence25
Trump's Canada tariff hangs $10 billion a year on Section 338's first outing
Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act lets a president tariff at up to 50%. Trump has now used it on $20 billion of Canadian goods. Importers are paying a rate no court has ever been asked to approve.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives66
- Confidence57
Tariff refunds now outrun collections, and net customs revenue has gone negative
The Treasury paid out $71.2 billion in tariff refunds across May and June against $45.6 billion collected, per Tax Foundation figures. The deficit case for the import taxes now runs backwards.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption72
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives62
- Confidence58