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US Trade Policy

US framework of tariffs and import duties set under statutes such as IEEPA and Trade Act Sections 122, 232 and 301, often contested in courts and Congress.

Current stories

investOne report1 publisher

Trump's choice of tariff statute hands the Canada repeal vote to Republican chairmen

Last year a single senator could force the Senate to vote on Canada tariffs under the emergency powers law. Sen. Tim Kaine says the nearly century-old statute Trump used this time has no such motion.

Publishers:semafor.com

Reality

Evidence52
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+8
Incentives65
Confidence48
investOne report1 publisher

Academy Sports sold $72.2 million of tariff claims for 14.5 cents on the dollar

A secondary market in refunded IEEPA duties is quoting the same asset at prices between 14.5 cents and 87 cents, and the consumer companies taking the cash are spending it on price cuts, vendor make-goods and 401(k) contributions.

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption68
Hype gap+12
Incentives68
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

Importers are selling tariff refund claims at 80 cents on the dollar

February's 6-3 Supreme Court ruling left the federal government owing importers somewhere between $166 billion and $175 billion in voided tariffs. The companies collecting it are now deciding whether the money is theirs to keep.

Reality

Evidence20
Adoption35
Hype gap+40
Incentives60
Confidence25
investOne report1 publisher

Trump's Canada tariff hangs $10 billion a year on Section 338's first outing

Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act lets a president tariff at up to 50%. Trump has now used it on $20 billion of Canadian goods. Importers are paying a rate no court has ever been asked to approve.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption62
Hype gap+14
Incentives66
Confidence57
investOne report1 publisher

Tariff refunds now outrun collections, and net customs revenue has gone negative

The Treasury paid out $71.2 billion in tariff refunds across May and June against $45.6 billion collected, per Tax Foundation figures. The deficit case for the import taxes now runs backwards.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence57
Adoption72
Hype gap+18
Incentives62
Confidence58