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US-Iran war

Armed conflict between the US and Iran that began in February 2026 with joint US-Israeli strikes, continuing through periodic strikes and pauses.

Current stories

investOne report1 publisher

Iran's security chief threatens regional cables, data centers and AI sites if the war resumes

Iran's security council head Mohsen Rezaei threatened regional cables, data centers and AI facilities if intense fighting resumes, according to IRNA. The threat is conditional and unspecific, while the Hormuz disruption beside it is already running.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence40
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence45
leadershipConfirmed7 publishers

Navy counts the USS Abraham Lincoln's record 321-day deployment in sorties and fuel burned

USS Abraham Lincoln returned to San Diego on Thursday after a record 321-day deployment supporting the US war with Iran. The Navy's published figures measure what its air wing flew and burned, while the strain on the crew came to light through Congress and the press.

Perspective Coverage

8 publishers
Builder
Builder 18%
Operator
Operator 68%
Investor
Investor 14%

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives70
Confidence58
investConfirmed8 publishers

Trump's Iran no-strike pledge pushes the oil-supply risk past November 3

Trump ruled out US strikes on Iran before the November 3 midterms and kept the naval blockade in force. Brent still traded near $103 a barrel on Friday, and a pledge that lapses on election day returns no Iranian oil to the market.

Perspective Coverage

8 publishers
Builder
Builder 5%
Operator
Operator 39%
Investor
Investor 56%

Reality

Evidence72
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives70
Confidence65
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Iran war pushes wounded US troops into host-nation hospitals beyond the Pentagon's full oversight

US military trauma care built over 20 years is struggling in the Iran war because forward US-run hospitals are gone, Business Insider reported. Central Command counters that 95% of the wounded returned to duty within hours or days, though most of them had concussion-related injuries.

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives55
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

Trump seeks Iran strike options before Nov. 3 as Hormuz tanker attacks hit their wartime worst

Donald Trump has asked the Pentagon for new Iran strike options before the November 3 midterms, reversing his plan to wait until after the vote. Backers of a strike concede it would not cut gas prices before the election, Cryptopolitan reported.

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives65
Confidence35
investConfirmed5 publishers

US bombers leave RAF Fairford for home bases after a threat Trump ties to Iran

US Air Force bombers have left RAF Fairford for their home bases after six arrests in a British terror inquiry, over a threat Trump says is linked to Iran. The move protects the aircraft, but Britain keeps the base and an Iran-linked proxy threat that its own officials say was already active.

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 8%
Operator
Operator 68%
Investor
Investor 24%

Reality

Evidence68
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+35
Incentives55
Confidence64
investConfirmed3 publishers

Trump's 9,000-troop deployment could put three carriers in the Middle East days before the midterms

Trump is sending about 9,000 troops and a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East while calling more bombing of Iran after Nov. 3 "possible." For oil and rates, the case for a longer war rests on his refusal of an Iranian truce that offered to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Publishers:aljazeera.com fortune.com seattletimes.com semafor.com yahoo.com

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 5%
Operator
Operator 53%
Investor
Investor 42%

Reality

Evidence70
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives55
Confidence65
investOne report1 publisher

Iran weighs a US reply on Hormuz as the rial loses 12% of its value in 27 days

Iran says it has an official US reply to its proposal to end the war, and the rial has passed 2.5 million to the dollar, a record low. Tehran's price for reopening the Strait of Hormuz is cash, and a currency falling this fast makes each week of talks more expensive for Tehran.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence58
leadershipConfirmed3 publishers

Iran refuses to reopen Hormuz without sanctions relief after Trump rejects its offer

Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days only if oil sanctions and the US naval blockade end, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said. With Donald Trump rejecting the offer, budgets set this quarter are safer treating the disruption as the base case.

Publishers:cbsnews.com sg.news.yahoo.com theedgemalaysia.com

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 5%
Operator
Operator 47%
Investor
Investor 48%

Reality

Evidence72
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives65
Confidence66
investOne report1 publisher

Iran's rial loses 12% against the dollar in 27 days as Tehran narrows talks to Hormuz

Iran's rial fell past 2.5 million to the dollar on Tuesday, 27 days after a record 2.2 million, losing at least 12% of its dollar value. Each week the Hormuz talks stall now costs Tehran through its exchange rate and Washington through gasoline prices.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives70
Confidence50
investConfirmed6 publishers

Iran puts its old Hormuz demands on a seven-day clock timed to the US midterms

Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts its port blockade, frees frozen assets and waives oil sanctions. Tehran pitched the speed as help for Trump in November's midterms, and his own reply so far is a map calling the waterway the 'Trump Strait'.

Publishers:cryptopolitan.com en.sedaily.com finance.yahoo.com fortune.com m.economictimes.com scmp.com semafor.com

Perspective Coverage

7 publishers
Builder
Builder 5%
Operator
Operator 36%
Investor
Investor 59%

Reality

Evidence70
Adoption10
Hype gap+15
Incentives75
Confidence70
investOne report1 publisher

Hormuz stays shut while Iran waits for Qatar to deliver Trump's rejection

Donald Trump says he rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Tehran says mediators have not formally delivered that refusal. Iran ties reopening to its conditions and more talks, so the strait stays shut until Qatar's mediators carry Washington's final word.

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence35
investConfirmed2 publishers

Treasury Partners puts the equity trigger at a 5.25% ten-year Treasury yield

Fortune's account of the global selloff traces a chain from oil above $100 a barrel to the debt behind AI data centers. The single testable number in it is a yield level named by one investment chief.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 7%
Operator
Operator 53%
Investor
Investor 40%

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives45
Confidence58
buildConfirmed3 publishers

AWS ran out of options for the data left in Bahrain when the second zone failed

AWS's status update says the strike damage exceeded what its regional and multi-AZ services were built to withstand. Customers who held data in a single zone in Bahrain or in mec1-az2 are being told it is not coming back.

Publishers:amp.insurancejournal.com economictimes.indiatimes.com spokesman.com techspot.com

Perspective Coverage

4 publishers
Builder
Builder 28%
Operator
Operator 45%
Investor
Investor 27%

Reality

Evidence72
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+8
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence70
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Navy's count of eight Lincoln suicide attempts surfaced in written answers to a senator

Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao told Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in writing that eight Lincoln strike group sailors attempted suicide on deployment. For leaders running a long surge, it shows how far a readiness summary can sit from what the work costs the people doing it.

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives58
Confidence60
investOne report1 publisher

Waltz calls time an American advantage on day 204 of a war projected to last six weeks

Mike Waltz has now twice declined to say when the Iran war ends, in July and again on CNN on September 20. The administration's own early projection for major combat operations was four to six weeks.

Reality

Evidence44
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+18
Incentives58
Confidence41