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Topic

U.S. Consumer Spending

Aggregate measure of U.S. household spending on goods and services, a key gauge of economic growth, inflation pass-through and consumer financial health.

Current stories

investOne report1 publisher

Prices made up more than half of the 6.1% rise in US consumer spending over the year to August

US consumer spending rose 6.1% in the year to August before inflation and 2.6% after it, Bureau of Economic Analysis data show. Prices rose faster in August alone than over the year, so the report argues for a slower path of rate cuts.

Publishers:wolfstreet.com

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+22
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

Each explanation for the 10-year's climb to 5.23% points to borrowing costs staying high

US 10-year Treasury yields hit 5.23% on Friday, the highest since June 2007, while consumer spending tracked toward 4% growth. A curve rising from 4.90% on the 2-year to above 5.51% on the 30-year fits a growing economy better than a frightened one.

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence40
investOne report1 publisher

AlixPartners forecasts holiday sales rising 4% to 7%, a range whose top end is 1.75 times its bottom

AlixPartners puts 2026 holiday sales growth at 4% to 7% while 57% of Americans say they are worse off than a year ago. One of the three reasons it gives for the gap is discounting that retailers fund themselves.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption30
Hype gap+20
Incentives65
Confidence44
leadershipOne report1 publisher

The 0.4-point tax-refund tailwind in 2026 growth is projected to reverse next year

None of the Fed's own participants put the risks to GDP growth on the downside, in the same week the central bank raised rates for the first time in three years. Business Insider argues the fiscal support under 2026 spending reverses next year.

Reality

Evidence40
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+22
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence45
investOne report1 publisher

Discretionary demand depends on the fifth of US households buying 60% of everything

A Fortune essay puts the top quintile at roughly 60% of US consumer spending, July wages 0.20 points behind prices, and grocery Buy Now Pay Later at double its level two years ago. All three come from the same essay.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence34
Adoption45
Hype gap+38
Incentives62
Confidence38
investOne report1 publisher

Real spending grew 2.1%. Healthcare services took about a third of the gain.

Nominal spending ran 5.9% against 3.7% inflation. Healthcare services, now 18.2% of the wallet, are growing at twice the pace of the whole consumer economy.

Publishers:wolfstreet.com

Reality

Evidence68
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+8
Incentives32
Confidence61
investOne report1 publisher

The consumer still spends, but only at a price Walmart has to pay for

Walmart posted its weakest sales growth in more than six years while cutting prices on 11,000-plus items. Target and Home Depot show which baskets still clear.

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption66
Hype gap+8
Incentives62
Confidence54