Topic
Licensing, caps and enforcement governing advanced AI accelerator sales from the US into China.
CXMT said it will unveil a 4F² server DDR5 module before year-end but did not disclose capacity, performance or a mass-production date. A Sungkyunkwan professor expects meaningful volume no earlier than end-2027, against a projected 2028 for Samsung.
Reality
The Ascend 960 is dated 2027 and the 970 is dated 2028, but the only large order on the record is DeepSeek's 160,000 chips of the current generation. That fleet is forty pods of silicon Huawei ships today.
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Tencent has reportedly agreed to pay Oracle about $7 billion over five years to rent 100,000 AI chips in Southeast Asia, with roughly 30% paid immediately. Oracle is burning cash, so the deal would give it money up front, and Tencent would get chips that never enter China.
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China's industry ministry told ByteDance and Alibaba it intends to approve Nvidia RTX Pro 5500 purchases, and ByteDance is weighing about 1 million cards. Washington has not said whether the card can ship, so Nvidia's China supply belongs in capacity plans as a contingency.
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China's industry ministry asked ByteDance, Alibaba and other companies to report plans to buy Nvidia's RTX PRO 5500, The Information reported. On that account, Beijing approves buyers of Nvidia's workstation chip one company at a time.
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China's tech ministry told some firms it intends to approve buying Nvidia's 84GB RTX Pro 5500, The Information reported, citing two unnamed sources. Reuters could not verify it, so China GPU planners have a signal to track until cards reach the mainland.
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Washington swapped a ban for case-by-case licenses. Bernstein expects Nvidia's China AI chip share to fall to about 8% in 2026, and buyers say domestic parts will take 46% of accelerator budgets.
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Rotating chairman David Wang dated both parts and said UnifiedBus superclusters support up to a million AI processors. He also counted more than 1,000 supernodes shipped to over 370 customers, without saying how many chips each one holds.
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The Atlas 960E fits 8 EFLOPS behind Huawei's own optical engines, and the Ascend 960DT arrives three quarters early, while rotating chairman Eric Xu says supply goes to Chinese customers first and dates China's catch-up with its own demand to 2030.
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Alibaba says the Zhenwu V900 reaches mass production in the first quarter of 2027. Until then, the checkable evidence of China's accelerator progress is the predecessor's install base across more than 400 external customers.
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Kimi K3's 1.4 terabytes of weights take eight Nvidia GB300s just to sit in memory. Export controls keep those chips away from Moonshot. Modal, Fireworks and Baseten price the hosted result at $3 in and $15 out.
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The Shenzhen-listed maker's high-speed laminates and optical module boards are still without a customer or any revenue, and the clarification reached the market only after three trading days of 20%-plus price deviation.
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ByteDance and Tencent each took about 10,000 Nvidia accelerators, but NDRC case-by-case approval keeps most of the licensed allowance offshore. Domestic silicon still runs the workloads.
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