Hurricane Simon passed about 50 km off Mexico's Pacific coast on Oct. 11 as a Category 4 storm with winds near 210 km/h, NASA reported. The Sierra Madre appeared to shrink its wind field, while news reports described flooding in Manzanillo.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Simulated storms from seven climate models skew stronger near Hawai'i under high emissions
University of Hawai'i researchers project a shift toward stronger tropical cyclones near the islands in a warmer climate. The study could not say whether storm counts will rise, and El Niño and La Niña years differ less in its late-century runs.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Heavy tropical cyclone rain is reaching 3.8 km farther inland each decade on Northern Hemisphere coasts
PolyU researchers report heavy cyclone rainfall extending inland about 3.8 km per decade along Northern Hemisphere coasts. The team ties the shift to warming nearshore seas and says planners should revisit inland flood zoning.
Reality
- Evidence65
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Oxygen isotopes in one Queensland snail shell line up with cyclones Marcia and Debbie
Researchers matched oxygen isotopes in one Biggenden banded snail's shell to ex-tropical-cyclone rain across about 4.5 years of its life. It is one shell from a limestone-free park, so use at other sites is a projection.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence40
Slow-moving Hurricane Simon is forecast to pass 15 km off Jalisco without landfall
Hurricane Simon, now a Category 3 storm, is forecast to pass about 15 km off Jalisco state in Mexico without making landfall. The U.S. National Hurricane Center still expects its eastern inner core to produce hurricane conditions.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Hurricane Simon reached Category 4 strength just off Mexico's Pacific coast on Sunday, with peak winds near 155 mph. US forecasters warned of catastrophic wind, surge and flooding across west-central Mexico near the Puerto Vallarta area.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 76%
- Investor
- Investor 17%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence68
Tropical Storm Rachel is due ashore near the California-Mexico border early Sunday under only the second tropical storm watch ever issued in California. Its swell is already damaging homes and flooding streets along the coast, days before the center arrives.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 19%
- Operator
- Operator 58%
- Investor
- Investor 23%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence68
Indonesia's fires quadruple in area as a record El Niño takes hold
Indonesia's fires grew roughly fourfold after June as the strongest El Niño on record began forming, with emissions on track to match 2015. The event is still strengthening on 1.4C of warming, and the year's outlook leans on a short record of past El Niños.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence40
Hawaii's 90-foot Hōlei Sea Arch, formed about 550 years ago, fell into the Pacific between 23 and 27 September, the National Park Service says. No one knows the exact moment, so the case against Tropical Storm Nolo rests on timing.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 18%
- Operator
- Operator 67%
- Investor
- Investor 15%
Reality
- Evidence80
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence80
El Niño's wind shear kept the Atlantic hurricane-free through September for the first time on record
El Niño kept the Atlantic free of hurricanes through September for the first time in reliable records by holding wind shear high over warm water. The mark could still fall if the National Hurricane Center upgrades Tropical Storm Fay in its post-season review.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Twenty named storms by Sept. 28 put the northeastern Pacific well above its 30-year average
NASA counts 20 named storms and nine hurricanes in the northeastern and central Pacific by Sept. 28, against 1991-2020 averages of 13.5 and 7.4. Colorado State data put storm energy at more than double the norm, so the season is running stronger as well as busier.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
A Category 1 peak, 30 to 35 inches of projected rain, and warnings across all eight major Hawaiian islands. The wind rating described almost none of the actual exposure.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 22%
- Operator
- Operator 67%
- Investor
- Investor 11%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−30
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence65
One 2008 cyclone killed more than twice as many people as 675 other storms combined
King's College London researchers counted deaths from every recorded tropical cyclone and extreme heat event since 2000. The toll sits in a handful of outliers, and they argue the scenarios used in risk assessment are not built to find events without precedent.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence45