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Topic

Treasury Auctions

Primary-market sales of US government debt, including clearing yields, bid-to-cover coverage and tails versus pre-deadline market levels.

Current stories

investConfirmed6 publishers

Front-end Treasury yields flipped from one cut to four hikes since late February

Yields on 1- to 7-year Treasuries moved as much as 26 basis points in four days, and the short end is now priced for hikes. That changes the base case for anyone financing 2026.

Publishers:cryptobriefing.com fortune.com kessler-prod.reta52d8.eas.morningstar.com mortgagenewsdaily.com semafor.com wolfstreet.com

Perspective Coverage

6 publishers
Builder
Builder 5%
Operator
Operator 28%
Investor
Investor 67%

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence58
investOne report1 publisher

Every Treasury maturity from seven years out now yields more than 5%

The 10-year broke a 5% level it had bounced against for two weeks, and the curve from two to thirty years now sits between 4.91% and 5.39%. A Treasury buyback offer the same morning did not slow it.

Publishers:wolfstreet.com

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption45
Hype gap+22
Incentives45
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

Treasury pays 5.42% for twenty-year money as the indirect bid hits a six-year low

It took 5.42% to place $13 billion of 20-year bonds, 21.6 basis points more than last month, and the indirect bidders who include foreign central banks took the smallest share in the maturity's six-year history.

Publishers:wolfstreet.com

Reality

Evidence68
Adoption62
Hype gap+18
Incentives55
Confidence64
investOne report1 publisher

The 20-year is the constraint, and it is clearing at 5.26 percent

A July auction took $13bn at 5.163% with bid-to-cover of 2.64, dead on the ten-auction average. Duration keeps getting bought, just never at a better price.

Reality

Evidence33
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+18
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence29
investOne report1 publisher

The 30-year cleared at 5.216%, and everything priced off the long end got dearer

Treasury's $25 billion long bond sale drew the highest yield since 2001, a day after the priciest 10-year auction since 2007. Demand showed up, but only at a price.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence70
Adoption68
Hype gap+12
Incentives58
Confidence66