Yields on 1- to 7-year Treasuries moved as much as 26 basis points in four days, and the short end is now priced for hikes. That changes the base case for anyone financing 2026.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 28%
- Investor
- Investor 67%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Every Treasury maturity from seven years out now yields more than 5%
The 10-year broke a 5% level it had bounced against for two weeks, and the curve from two to thirty years now sits between 4.91% and 5.39%. A Treasury buyback offer the same morning did not slow it.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives45
- Confidence55
Treasury pays 5.42% for twenty-year money as the indirect bid hits a six-year low
It took 5.42% to place $13 billion of 20-year bonds, 21.6 basis points more than last month, and the indirect bidders who include foreign central banks took the smallest share in the maturity's six-year history.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives55
- Confidence64
The 20-year is the constraint, and it is clearing at 5.26 percent
A July auction took $13bn at 5.163% with bid-to-cover of 2.64, dead on the ten-auction average. Duration keeps getting bought, just never at a better price.
Reality
- Evidence33
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence29
The 30-year cleared at 5.216%, and everything priced off the long end got dearer
Treasury's $25 billion long bond sale drew the highest yield since 2001, a day after the priciest 10-year auction since 2007. Demand showed up, but only at a price.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives58
- Confidence66