US spot Ether ETFs had $542 million of net redemptions in the five sessions to October 9, extending their outflow streak to nine days. By 247 Wall St.'s count, fund assets fell $1.98 billion over those days, about three-quarters of it from Ether's lower price.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives30
- Confidence65
Bitmine Immersion Technologies will stop buying ether at 5% of supply, a cap that leaves it about $200 million of purchases at Wednesday's price. For ether's flows, that limit matters more than Tom Lee's bull call, because one of the token's steadiest buyers is close to done.
Perspective Coverage
9 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 6%
- Operator
- Operator 21%
- Investor
- Investor 73%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives72
- Confidence70
JPMorgan's $66 billion crypto inflow pace now leans on ETFs and CME futures
JPMorgan analysts count about $50 billion of crypto inflows so far this year, an annualized pace of roughly $66 billion. Third-quarter buying moved away from corporate treasuries toward ETF holders and futures traders who can exit in a day, at about half of last year's pace.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50
Winklevoss Asset Services filed for a spot Zcash ETF with a 0.25% sponsor fee, a tenth of the 2.50% Grayscale charges on its $751 million fund. Grayscale's recent withdrawals came before the filing and tracked a 21% fall in ZEC, so the fee gap has not yet been tested.
Perspective Coverage
7 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 14%
- Operator
- Operator 32%
- Investor
- Investor 54%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives78
- Confidence66
US spot ether ETFs lost about $408 million in six straight sessions, half of it on Tuesday from BlackRock's ETHA alone. Bitcoin funds took in $119 million that day after losing $90 million on Monday, too little over two sessions to have absorbed the ether money.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives35
- Confidence62
Bitcoin ETFs took in $6.34 billion in the third quarter as the coin rose nearly 43%, about $3.1 billion of it in a nine-day September streak. The money is real, but its late arrival leaves open whether it drove the rally or chased it.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 13%
- Investor
- Investor 82%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
BlackRock's ETHA clients pulled all $202 million that left US Ethereum ETFs on October 6
BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust lost $201.89 million to redemptions on October 6, the whole of a $202 million net outflow from US spot Ethereum ETFs. The other Ethereum funds were roughly flat that day, so the selling came from one fund's clients while the claimed move into Bitcoin went unmeasured.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50
One day of Ethereum ETF inflows cuts against a $138 million weekly outflow
US spot Ethereum ETFs drew net inflows on Oct. 5 while Bitcoin and Solana funds lost money, against a week in which Bitcoin took $241.09 million. Ethereum funds still lost $138.02 million that week, and one day of buying needs a weekly print behind it to count as a trend.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption60
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence42
Grayscale's ZCSH, the first US spot Zcash ETF, lost $93.56 million to outflows in one week, leaving $212.56 million of net inflows since its August launch. Its assets fell further, to about $751 million from a September peak as high as $979 million, with ZEC's price accounting for much of the drop.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 20%
- Investor
- Investor 73%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence65
Ether ETF selling faded through a $118 million outflow week
U.S. spot Ether ETFs lost a net $118 million in the week to Oct. 2, after taking in about $689.8 million the week before. The selling shrank as the week went on, and with ETH stuck under $2,800, Glamsterdam's Oct. 6 Sepolia activation is the dated event to watch.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
September XRP fund inflows outran the $104 million of open interest that left Binance
US spot XRP funds took in $121.4 million in September, more than the roughly $104 million of open interest that left Binance between Aug. 22 and Sept. 17. With less leverage in the market, XRP's price now depends on whether that fund buying continues into October.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence40
Bitwise's NRR, the first US spot NEAR ETF, stakes its tokens and keeps about 67% of a roughly 5% reward rate for shareholders. After the 0.75% fee, that comes to roughly 2.6% a year in extra tokens, just above NEAR's 2.5% inflation.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 8%
- Operator
- Operator 20%
- Investor
- Investor 72%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives75
- Confidence65
Bitwise's NEAR ETF, ticker NRR, cleared NYSE Arca and the SEC on September 24 to list with 100% of its tokens staked, for a 0.75% annual fee. Holders only beat plain price exposure if staking rewards beat that fee, and one listing tells us less about SEC policy on staking than it appears to.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives60
- Confidence60
Bitwise's share of Solana ETF inflows slipped on the category's record $80 million day
Bitwise's BSOL drew $55.7 million of US spot Solana ETFs' record $80 million to $87 million day, a smaller share than its 76% to 80% of all inflows. Grayscale and the smaller funds took a bigger slice of the new money than of the old.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence40
A median mid-cap altcoin needs 392% to catch Bitcoin's last two years
Glassnode and Bybit put Bitcoin up 28% over two years while the median mid-cap token lost 74%, and the futures leverage has pooled in the losers, at about 24% of PEPE's market cap against 2% of Bitcoin's. The fund flows point the same way.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives66
- Confidence52
Bitwise's staking fund took four of every five dollars in Solana's $1.4bn run
Solana's spot ETFs have taken net inflows for twelve straight weeks, an average of at least $117m a week, and the latest week came in at $60.7m. Bitcoin's spot funds took $6.1m on their quietest volume since October 2024.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives45
- Confidence40
CLARITY needs seven Democrats even if all four Republican holdouts come back
Cloture on H.R. 3633 failed 49-50 on Sept. 15 with every yes vote Republican. Add the four Republican noes back to the yes column and the count reaches 53, still seven short of the 60 the Senate requires.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence58