Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says state policing would drive US prediction markets offshore, though two of three appeals courts have sided with states. Sports slid from 95% of Kalshi's revenue to about two-thirds, a share change that cannot show how much volume left.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives80
- Confidence65
Fifty-two percent of Gen Z investors moved money meant for investing into sports betting in the past year, a Betterment survey of 1,000 investors found. Bank of America's payment data puts what every generation recovers from sportsbooks each month below 75 cents on the dollar, so the diverted cash is a running cost.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 22%
- Investor
- Investor 71%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption50
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence60
Top Latter-day Saints leader calls prediction markets gambling, siding with Utah against Trump
D. Todd Christofferson, one of the Latter-day Saints' three top leaders, called prediction markets gambling that yields "nothing of value." The speech sets the Utah-based church against the Trump administration's view that Kalshi and Polymarket are not gambling.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap
- Not scored
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Federal appeals over Kalshi will decide whether state gambling law reaches up to $100 billion in sports bets
Economist Victor Matheson puts 2025 US sports betting on prediction markets at $50 billion to $100 billion, handle that state regulators cannot see. Kalshi's pending federal appeals will shape whether that money stays outside state gambling law.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives40
- Confidence55
DraftKings model scored gamblers on how much they would lose after promotions, the Times reports
DraftKings scored customers on how much they were likely to lose after a promotion, the New York Times reported after interviewing over 40 former staff. A ProPublica reporter betting his own money saw the offers grow as his losses did.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives45
- Confidence50
Former DraftKings staff describe a model that ranked bettors by how well promotions worked on them
The New York Times, citing more than 40 former employees, says a 2023 elasticity model scored customers on how strongly they responded to promotions, and that three internal crisis-prediction efforts stalled.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives68
- Confidence45