Topic
The temperature of the ocean's upper layer, measured by ships, buoys and satellites; a key climate indicator and boundary condition for atmospheric models.
PolyU researchers report heavy cyclone rainfall extending inland about 3.8 km per decade along Northern Hemisphere coasts. The team ties the shift to warming nearshore seas and says planners should revisit inland flood zoning.
Reality
Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific's Niño 3.4 region passed 30 degrees Celsius for the first time, preliminary data released Oct. 5 show. On the anomaly measures that remove global ocean warming, the event is already close to the strongest El Niño on record, Timothy Osborn of the University of East Anglia told Live Science.
Reality
Copernicus logged 21.10 C on Aug. 22, one hundredth of a degree above March 2024. The timing, not the margin, is what should move planning assumptions.
Perspective Coverage
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Science News reports the El Nino region's daily sea surface anomaly hit 3.08 C on September 21, past the 3.02 C mark set in November 2015. NOAA's preferred index still ranks the 1997-98 event stronger, leaving two analogues in play for the coming seasons.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
The eastern Pacific is running 2.1 C above average on weekly NOAA data, past the 2 C mark for a super event. The official strength category comes from three-month averages, and the regional outlook comes with a caveat attached.
Reality
A Geophysical Research Letters paper compares coupled CMIP6 runs against atmosphere-only runs fed observed ocean temperatures, then adds the bias back and watches the jet move south again. Northwestern Pacific bias was particularly important.
Reality