Skip to content

Topic

Russia Sanctions Regimes

State and multilateral sanctions programmes targeting Russian individuals, entities, and vessels over the war in Ukraine.

Current stories

investConfirmed2 publishers

Trump holds to Russian diesel imports after four Republican senators say they run counter to the law

Trump is standing by his Russian diesel import deal after a bipartisan group of senators said it runs against a 2022 ban on Russian energy imports. Semafor puts the volume at roughly 2.2 million tons, while ABC News reports 300,000 tons immediately with more promised.

Publishers:abcnews.com semafor.com

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+45
Incentives72
Confidence60
investConfirmed2 publishers

Washington's 2.25 million barrel Russian diesel waiver is a bid to pull Putin back to talks

Trump's envoys told Kyiv on Oct 9 that a Russian diesel deal of more than 2.25 million barrels is meant to restart three-way talks, Reuters reported. A person close to the Kremlin said Putin returns only after taking the last 11% of Donbas.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 3%
Operator
Operator 65%
Investor
Investor 32%

Reality

Evidence42
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+35
Incentives62
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

Korea's Arctic route beats existing ones only above $70 to $80 oil, academics say

Korea's PanStar Acro completed a 50-day Arctic container round trip to Europe that President Lee Jae Myung says cut one-way sailing time by 10 days. Academics put the oil price at which the route beats existing ones at about $70 to $80 a barrel, and it needs Russian permits that the war leaves uncertain.

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption8
Hype gap+30
Incentives60
Confidence60
leadershipConfirmed13 publishers

Treasury licenses Russian diesel sales and imports until April 2027

Treasury licensed Russian diesel sales after President Trump said Vladimir Putin would immediately release hundreds of thousands of tonnes onto world markets. NBC News reported that the authorization runs until April 7, 2027, so operators have a fixed end date to budget against while the promised tonnage rests on Trump's account.

Perspective Coverage

14 publishers
Builder
Builder 5%
Operator
Operator 47%
Investor
Investor 48%

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption15
Hype gap+62
Incentives75
Confidence70
buildOne report1 publisher

US sanctions pause on Russian fuel would cover diesel the Kremlin has already stopped exporting

CNN reported a US plan to suspend sanctions on Russian fuel exports for six months while Ukraine stops hitting refineries. Analysts cited in the report expect little effect on diesel prices.

Publishers:mezha.net

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap
Not scored
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence40
investConfirmed7 publishers

Britain sanctions five crypto platforms a week after Washington blacklisted Russia's A7 network

Britain sanctioned three crypto exchanges and two payment platforms on Oct. 8, two of them suspected of handling transactions for Russia's A7 network. Washington blocked A7 a week earlier and Brussels barred dealings with 14 crypto platforms in July, so firms near these rails now answer to three overlapping regimes.

Perspective Coverage

7 publishers
Builder
Builder 19%
Operator
Operator 55%
Investor
Investor 26%

Reality

Evidence72
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives40
Confidence68
investOne report1 publisher

UK's Russia sanctions reach a payment firm owned by Kyrgyzstan's finance ministry

Britain sanctioned three crypto exchanges, two payment platforms and one individual in a 38-designation Russia package. Naming a Vancouver parent and a Kyrgyz state-owned firm, and ordering app stores to block UK users, pushes compliance work out to counterparties.

Publishers:decrypt.co

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives55
Confidence55
investConfirmed3 publishers

Seoul recalls ambassador Park Ki-chang from Kyiv over a POW apology it says falls short

South Korea is recalling its ambassador to Ukraine over Volodymyr Zelensky's disclosure that North Korean prisoners of war were sent to Seoul. A report cited by SCMP, of more than 176,000 tonnes of fuel shipped from South Korea to Russia, becomes a problem for Korean refiners only once its sellers are named.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 5%
Operator
Operator 67%
Investor
Investor 28%

Reality

Evidence72
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence70
investConfirmed5 publishers

Japan's Garantex freeze lands 19 months after police seized the exchange's servers

Japan froze the assets of Garantex, a Moscow crypto exchange that processed at least $96 billion, in Russia sanctions that took effect on October 2. Any exchange or payment firm that touches Garantex now carries Japanese legal risk on top of its US and EU exposure.

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 12%
Operator
Operator 60%
Investor
Investor 28%

Reality

Evidence76
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence72
investOne report1 publisher

Seoul answers Ukraine's diesel complaint by pointing to its 1,402-item export-control list

Ukraine's sanctions adviser Vladyslav Vlasiuk criticized South Korean fuel shipments to Russia after the Guardian tracked over 176,000 tons in July and August. Any cost to the refiners shipping from Ulsan and Yeosu would come through Seoul's own export-control list, and the government's reply leaves open whether diesel is on it.

Publishers:en.sedaily.com

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives60
Confidence50
scienceOne report1 publisher

Document trail ties at least 47 Russian and Belarusian figures to Ukrainian child deportations

Researchers with the Where Are Our People? project have identified at least 47 Russian and Belarusian figures in the deportation of Ukrainian children. Only some of them face Western sanctions, while Ukraine counts 2,644 children returned against 20,651 verified deportations.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives55
Confidence40
investConfirmed3 publishers

Swiss voters keep Bern's power to impose sanctions without UN backing by a projected 71%

Swiss voters rejected writing a strict form of neutrality into the constitution by a projected 71%, an SRG and GFS Bern exit poll showed. The result lets the government keep matching EU sanctions on Russia without waiting for a UN Security Council resolution.

Perspective Coverage

4 publishers
Builder
Builder 10%
Operator
Operator 61%
Investor
Investor 29%

Reality

Evidence80
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+5
Incentives60
Confidence80
securityConfirmed2 publishers

DOJ: Oxygen Forensics executives falsely certified US ownership to win government contracts

Federal authorities arrested Oxygen Forensics' CEO and CTO, alleging they hid Russian ownership to win over $2 million in Secret Service work. DOJ does not allege malicious code, so agencies running the tool are left weighing who controls it and the same software's sale to Russia's FSB.

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption45
Hype gap+12
Incentives55
Confidence62
investOne report1 publisher

Two named banks account for $2.9bn of the $6.9bn A7 moved through SWIFT-connected accounts

Leaked internal files from the Promsvyazbank-backed payments group describe roughly 100 front companies in four jurisdictions opening accounts at banks still on the network, with counterfeit invoices produced whenever compliance teams asked questions.

Reality

Evidence40
Adoption55
Hype gap+12
Incentives55
Confidence40

Earlier coverage