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Topic

Public Opinion Polling

The practice of surveying representative samples of people to gauge public attitudes on politics, policy, and economic issues, often by demographic or region.

Current stories

investOne report1 publisher

Americans oppose a data center in their area by 56% to 15%, across party and climate lines

A Yale and George Mason survey of 1,068 adults found 56% oppose a data center in their area and only 15% support one. Among registered voters, about half of conservative Republicans oppose one too, so party lean does not mark a safe site.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption30
Hype gap+8
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence55
scienceOne report1 publisher

Americans oppose a data center in their own area by 56% to 15% in a Yale-George Mason survey

Yale and George Mason researchers found that 56% of 1,068 US adults oppose a data center in their local area and 15% support one. Local limits are appearing in Massachusetts and Vermont towns, though the poll cannot show that opinion produced them.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

Gallup's revised survey finds 11% of US adults taking GLP-1s for weight loss, up from 3% in 2024

Gallup found 11% of US adults now take a GLP-1 for weight loss, up from 3% in 2024. Its survey of 5,065 adults counts users, not spending, so food and insurance planners still need their own dollar figures.

Publishers:news.gallup.com

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption11
Hype gap+10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence66
scienceOne report1 publisher

Religious belief divides Americans on science's benefits far more than in peer nations

STAT's analysis of Wellcome Global Monitor data finds a 24-point religious gap in how Americans rate science's benefits, against 5 points across peer nations. The gap is widening because secular and college-educated Americans have warmed to science fastest.

Publishers:statnews.com

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence55
leadershipOne report1 publisher

A staged supermajority hands Putin cover to escalate through the winter

Foreign Affairs argues last weekend's United Russia landslide was organised in advance to display total commitment to the war, while the Levada Center's own numbers show approval and public morale falling underneath it.

Reality

Evidence44
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+22
Incentives58
Confidence46
investOne report1 publisher

China books a record $1.2 trillion surplus. Its exports to America are falling

Xi meets Trump on Wednesday holding a surplus built outside the American market. Two Pew readings that bear on enforcement, Canadian trust and German belief that Washington weighs other countries' interests, have each fallen by more than half.

Publishers:cnbc.com

Reality

Evidence72
Adoption58
Hype gap+12
Incentives48
Confidence64
leadershipOne report1 publisher

POLITICO's poll finds pluralities willing to fall behind on AI for more caution

Support for pausing AI development leads in all six countries Public First surveyed, and it tops out at 51%, while the path from that sentiment to a binding rule runs through a US president who calls the warnings a hoax.

Reality

Evidence46
Adoption24
Hype gap+20
Incentives72
Confidence48
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Most Americans say they would stop building a dangerous AI even with rivals racing

POLITICO's new poll puts 63 percent of US adults on the view that AI could someday destroy mankind. In the same survey, 62 percent said they would abandon a project like that and expect rival labs to do the same.

Publishers:nz.news.yahoo.com

Reality

Evidence46
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+22
Incentives58
Confidence44
productOne report1 publisher

Republican memos warn candidates that backing data centers is a losing position

A New York Times poll puts 47 percent of Republicans against data center construction. The party's own strategists are telling candidates to keep their distance from the projects the president keeps defending.

Publishers:wired.com

Reality

Evidence48
Adoption58
Hype gap+14
Incentives70
Confidence52
leadershipOne report1 publisher

A Noahpinion roundup splits the opposition to an AI slowdown into five separate interests

The post argues the coalition against slowing AI down is losing the public argument, and it rests that on bipartisan majorities it reads off Nate Silver's summary of the polling. The five constituencies it names each want something different.

Publishers:noahpinion.blog

Reality

Evidence25
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+30
Incentives55
Confidence30
productOne report1 publisher

Six in ten Americans now back a cap on new data centre builds

An AP-NORC and University of Chicago poll puts concern about AI's environmental impact at 53%, up from 41% a year ago, with majorities worried about local electricity prices and water supply.

Publishers:fastcompany.com

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption42
Hype gap0
Incentives45
Confidence58
scienceOne report1 publisher

Confidence that US votes are counted as intended has fallen 22 points since the 2024 election

UC San Diego's election center puts confidence in the national vote count at 55%, down from 77% just after the 2024 election. The fall since January has been steepest among independents.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+18
Incentives55
Confidence60
investOne report1 publisher

Johnson hands AI safety to developers whose CEOs are asking for a slowdown

The Speaker rejected a national moratorium on AI buildout and said developers bear responsibility for safety. Two pollsters put opposition to data centers near respondents at 69% and 70%, and forecasters expect the midterms to cost him the gavel.

Publishers:usatoday.com

Reality

Evidence52
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+12
Incentives72
Confidence46
scienceOne report1 publisher

Living in London cuts the public's crime overestimate by only about a quarter

A King's College London study with YouGov measures how far British beliefs about the capital's crime and Muslim population are from the recorded figures, and finds the errors run in opposite directions by party.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+12
Incentives58
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

California's 5% billionaire levy draws strong under-30 support amid slipping overall backing

Proposition 40 would take 5% once from anyone worth over $1 billion. August polling puts it at 48% among likely voters and 75% among 18-to-29s. The composition of the November electorate is the only number that decides it.

Reality

Evidence46
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+19
Incentives84
Confidence52
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Data centre opposition hits 75%, and the friendly county has stopped existing

A new Heatmap Pro poll puts local opposition at three-quarters of Americans, with strong opposition above 60%. Siting is now a permitting programme, not a land deal.

Publishers:heatmap.news

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption71
Hype gap+12
Incentives63
Confidence65
scienceOne report1 publisher

Two-thirds want glyphosate banned, and almost nobody has been reading about it

Annenberg finds 70% of Republicans and 69% of Democrats favor banning the herbicide, while most respondents say they have heard little about it. A one-point party gap is not a gap at all.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption22
Hype gap+18
Incentives55
Confidence62
investOne report1 publisher

Korea's thirtysomethings score property policy at 72% negative, and the tax deterrent stops working

Two polls taken days apart put the loudest disapproval among the first-time buyers the policy was written for, and the expectation of price relief is thinning with it.

Publishers:en.sedaily.com

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+22
Incentives45
Confidence55