Topic
The contest over which regulator governs event contracts, and under what statute.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said on October 14 that public trade data makes insider trading easy to catch, citing a case that drew about 100 complaints. The CFTC order against Santos was for manipulation, and New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to review state authority over the contracts.
Reality
FCA has held talks with prediction-market operators as Polymarket and Kalshi explore UK entry, the Financial Times reported. Its 2026 perimeter report classed the financial products it examined as binary options, banned for retail clients since 2019.
Reality
Morgan Stanley raised its Coinbase target to $258 from $250 while Citizens JMP cut its own to $280 from $325, leaving the two $22 apart. Both still put the stock at least 50% above its $172 close, so each firm is further from the market price than from the other.
Reality
Verifact Markets launched Friday to take bets on disputed past events, with "true" at 76 cents in its market on whether Covid came from a lab. The company rules on each outcome itself, so every trade is a bet on a process its chief executive calls "very secretive."
Reality
Polymarket, valued at about $21 billion, hired ex-Goldman partner Lisa Mantil to bring big traders onto its US exchange. She starts selling while federal investigators, House members and New York officials still dispute how its contracts should be policed.
Reality
Galaxy Digital's estimate for the US market-structure bill has fallen from 75% in May to 10%. Firms budgeting for a statute should budget for SEC and CFTC rulemaking instead.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
North Carolina taxed prediction-market fees at 6%, about a quarter of the sportsbook rate, in budget text Bloomberg says a Kalshi lobbyist helped draft. The same text defers to federal regulators, and Kalshi is already using it against states that call its contracts gambling.
Reality
Robinhood's crypto notional rose to $17.5 billion in August, still 38% under the same month a year earlier, and 58% of it now clears through Bitstamp. Event contract counts fell 23% in the same month.
Reality
Michele Spagnuolo's lawyers do not dispute the trades. They dispute that a wager on Google's most-searched person is a swap at all, which is the question every event-contract product is built on top of.
Reality