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Topic

Oil refining

The industrial process of converting crude oil into diesel, gasoline, jet fuel and other products at refineries worldwide.

Current stories

leadershipOne report1 publisher

IEA expects the diesel shortage to last into 2027 despite sanctions relief and stockpile releases

International Energy Agency says the global diesel shortage will stretch into 2027 despite planned sanctions easing and stockpile releases. Heavy diesel users face high costs into next year while refiners expect record profits.

Publishers:theguardian.com

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives55
Confidence60
scienceOne report1 publisher

Stanlow refinery breached its pollution permit 58 times in 2023 and 2024, regulator's reports show

Environment Agency reports say Stanlow refinery, which makes about 18% of UK road fuel, broke its permit 58 times across 2023 and 2024. The agency is now investigating breaches that came after the 2018-20 offences operator EET Fuels pleaded guilty to this year.

Publishers:bbc.co.uk

Reality

Evidence70
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+5
Incentives45
Confidence65
investOne report1 publisher

Kyiv's 51% refinery claim runs well ahead of the IEA's 30% diesel decline

Ukraine says its strikes have knocked out 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity, a claim that could not be independently verified. IEA figures point to a smaller loss that Russia covers by postponing maintenance and keeping diesel at home.

Publishers:abcnews.com fortune.com

Reality

Evidence40
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+35
Incentives70
Confidence55
buildOne report1 publisher

Freight climbs to 27% of a delivered oil barrel's cost as Hormuz traffic returns

Poten & Partners puts a Middle East-to-Asia supertanker charter above $1.2 million a day, up from about $30,000 in January. Freight and lost refining capacity help hold Brent above $100 while Hormuz flows sit near 80% of pre-war levels.

Publishers:mezha.net

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence55
investConfirmed3 publishers

Dangote's $16 billion Lamu refinery needs neighbors' crude that Uganda wants to refine at home

Aliko Dangote broke ground on a $16 billion, 700,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Lamu, Kenya, with five heads of state at the ceremony. The plant will run on neighbors' crude, and Uganda's president says his country will still build its own refinery.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 23%
Operator
Operator 40%
Investor
Investor 37%

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption12
Hype gap+35
Incentives70
Confidence58
investOne report1 publisher

Uganda steers its crude toward a $20 billion Tanzanian complex and away from Dangote's Lamu plant

Uganda is pledging its crude to Hoima and a $20 billion complex in Tanzania, so Dangote's planned refinery at Lamu in Kenya will likely import by sea. Lenders and IPO buyers are now pricing a plant fed by tanker crude through a port with no working oil storage.

Publishers:semafor.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption25
Hype gap+15
Incentives60
Confidence45
investOne report1 publisher

Six Treasury extensions keep Elliott's $9 billion Citgo purchase from closing

Treasury has extended Citgo's protection from a court-ordered $9 billion sale to Elliott Management six times since January. Creditors holding that order are waiting on an administration that keeps its leverage over Caracas for as long as it leaves the license undecided.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives65
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

A Trump-backed diesel export ban would buy about a month of cheaper Gulf Coast fuel

US diesel averaged $6.52 a gallon on Sept. 23, an all-time high, and analysts told Fortune that keeping the fuel home would lower prices only near the Gulf Coast before refiners trim runs on every fuel they make.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption25
Hype gap+20
Incentives75
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

Romania Lost a Fifth of Its Refining Capacity to Sanctions and Insolvency, as Carlyle's Lukoil Deal Awaits OFAC Approval

Carlyle agreed to pay $22 billion for Lukoil's overseas assets in January 2026. OFAC's licences since then cover negotiation and maintenance through October 22, and Romania's Petrotel refinery went into insolvency.

Reality

Evidence22
Adoption30
Hype gap+30
Incentives45
Confidence30
investOne report1 publisher

The IEA cut its 2026 oil demand forecast by another 940 kb/d in a single month

The September Oil Market Report puts world demand down 2.5 mb/d this year and supply back up 8 mb/d in 2027, an ending that looks loose while US diesel trades above $200 a barrel and Gulf diesel exports sit at a quarter of their pre-war rate.

Publishers:iea.org

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+18
Incentives40
Confidence56
investOne report1 publisher

Korea's fuel price ceiling has outrun its six-month budget by 800 billion won

WTI at about $102 has widened the gap between Singapore product prices and the capped price Korean refiners may charge at home. The industry puts its losses at 5 trillion won. No first settlement has been completed.

Publishers:en.sedaily.com

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption65
Hype gap+18
Incentives75
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

Korea weighs quadrupling its crude freight subsidy as Dubai crude jumps 53% in five weeks

The trade ministry summoned Korea's four refiners on the 14th to weigh paying more of the freight gap on crude from the Americas, Africa and Southeast Asia. September and October cargoes are already more than 90% secured.

Publishers:en.sedaily.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption25
Hype gap+12
Incentives62
Confidence50