India's central bank raised its repo rate 25 basis points to 5.50%, its first increase since February 2023. Governor Sanjay Malhotra expects inflation near 5.8%, so the real policy rate is still negative and the open question for bond and rupee holders is how far the cycle runs.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 8%
- Operator
- Operator 26%
- Investor
- Investor 66%
Reality
- Evidence82
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence76
Georgieva says AI investment is offsetting $100 oil to hold world growth near 3%
IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva says an AI investment boom has offset the drag of $100 oil, keeping global growth at about 3% this year. She warns that the risk comes early, because the spending arrives well before the gains that would justify it.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives35
- Confidence45
Renewed strikes on Iran put $15 a barrel back into Brent in a long weekend
A monthlong lull had let planners treat the six-month war as a decaying risk. Then Brent went from about $80 to about $95 in the days after American forces hit rocket launchers on a Hormuz island.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives78
- Confidence46
Brent crude and bond yields both jump amid Trump's Iran and Venezuela oil moves
Brent at $92 reads as a supply story, but the harder move is a 30-year Treasury at 5.278%, and what sits between them is a peace deal Washington keeps declining and 65 billion Venezuelan barrels it wants to own.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
Brent above $90 re-prices the Hormuz chokehold at roughly $18 a barrel
The UAE says it shot down an Iranian drone the day after the first US-Iran exchange of fire in a month, and crude is back above $90, about a quarter above its pre-war level. Fuel assumptions written during the quiet now need redoing.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives81
- Confidence58