Museum frogs point to chytrid fungus in a decades-old Atlantic Forest die-off
Smithsonian and Penn State researchers sampled more than 370 museum frogs from Boracéia, Brazil, and found chytrid fungus only in specimens from the 1980s. The timing matches the 1979 to 1982 die-offs that some scientists had blamed on climate or extreme weather.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
A dicynodont collected in 1963 makes Tanzania's oldest dinosaur candidates younger
Dinodontosaurus turns up outside South America for the first time, in Tanzanian rocks that also hold the world's oldest dinosaur candidates, and the South American sequences it matches carry younger radiometric dates.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives35
- Confidence50
Ultraviolet light exposes banded tail patterning on a 125-million-year-old Catalan crocodile
The holotype of Montsecosuchus depereti has been in a Barcelona museum for more than a century. A team led from the Institut Catala de Paleontologia put it under UV and got scales, chest cartilage and a tail pattern.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
A metre-long Devonian scorpion emerges from 150 years in museum collections
Praearcturus gigas carried pincers longer than 16 centimetres and hunted 415 million years ago, before trees and before the high-oxygen atmosphere palaeontologists usually invoke to explain giant arthropods.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives68
- Confidence44
Matthijs Wibier read the faded Latin under ultraviolet light and found provisions that match no surviving Roman code, which is a real find and also a measure of how little fourth-century law survives.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+26
- Incentives58
- Confidence52
Soft tube feet survived 450 million years, and only one other crinoid has managed it
University of Oklahoma paleontologists report preserved feeding tissue in Dendrocrinus simcoensis. Two specimens against a fossil record of millions sets the limit on what it can prove.
Reality
- Evidence36
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives62
- Confidence47
Bite marks, not body size: crocodylians ran the large-prey trade in Miocene Colombia
A new study reads trophic rank off damage on herbivore bone rather than off predator dimensions, and the answer is a caiman relative rather than a saber-toothed mammal.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+26
- Incentives30
- Confidence48
La Brea's newest species came out of a drawer, not a pit
Spea labreae was collected in the 1950s and named in 2026. The binding constraint on this kind of paleontology is re-examination time, not fresh excavation.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives68
- Confidence52