Brent crude fell 11 cents to $104.61 a barrel on Monday as Trump announced Russian diesel supply and an energy ceasefire that Russia has not commented on. The diesel is small against global demand and the truce is unverified, so the relief looks shallow.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives50
- Confidence62
CENTCOM dates its six-month Hormuz shipping high to the start of the war
Adm. Brad Cooper says the US military supported the transit of a billion barrels of oil in two months, about 16 million a day, and that Iran exported none, while monitors put Hormuz traffic well below prewar.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+36
- Incentives78
- Confidence48
The bloc's leaders adopted a Middle East paragraph that assigns responsibility to no country, and both Iran and the UAE signed it four months after their foreign ministers could not agree on any text at all.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
Saudi Arabia's bypass line would cover a quarter of the barrels Hormuz stops moving
A projectile hit a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on September 12-13, according to a UKMTO advisory, and on the worst days since the conflict began the corridor has carried two million barrels instead of twenty. Brent is above $100.
Reality
- Evidence24
- Adoption46
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence31
Iran restarts missile assembly from stockpiled parts at underground sites
US and Middle Eastern officials told the Wall Street Journal that Iran is putting ballistic missiles together from components held underground, at output below prewar levels. The Trump administration says Iran's capabilities are sharply weakened.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives62
- Confidence41