Russell 2000 heads into the vote up 15.1% against a 0.5% average across 11 midterm years
Russell 2000 is up about 15.1% this year, but Furey Research found an average 0.5% gain across 11 midterm years, with gains in only 45% of them. The post-election record bulls cite looks very different once the last four midterms are included.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Four megacaps added 300 S&P 500 points in Q3 while everything else gave back 150
Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple and Meta added roughly 300 S&P 500 points in Q3, over 200% of the index gain, Citadel Securities commentary says. Holders of a cap-weighted fund own those weights automatically, so 500 names diversify less than the count implies.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple and Meta added about 300 points to the S&P 500 in the third quarter while the other members subtracted about 150. With roughly 311 stocks down, most of an index fund's money sat in the group that lost ground.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 3%
- Operator
- Operator 14%
- Investor
- Investor 83%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence62
Half of S&P 500 stocks sit at least 16% below their highs as the 10-year yield reaches 5.27%
Goldman Sachs says half of S&P 500 members sit 16% or more below their 52-week highs while the index is about 1% off its record. The gap points to a few heavily weighted AI stocks carrying the index as Treasury and European bond yields keep climbing.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50
Nearly two-thirds of S&P 500 stocks are trailing an index up more than 13% this year
Only 35% of S&P 500 stocks are beating an index up more than 13% in 2026, while a quarter of its members have fallen 10% or more. Over ten years, Trivariate Research finds just 23% of stocks beat the index, so thin breadth has made stock picking a low-odds bet.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence45
Crescat counts 17 sessions of more new lows than new highs under a record NASDAQ close
The letter reads four breadth and credit divergences as a major market top forming. The most recent episode it cites, the weeks before April 2, 2025, was followed by a selloff the index has since recovered.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives88
- Confidence55
Michael Kramer dates a liquidity squeeze to October and November on $317bn of net issuance
Mott Capital's Michael Kramer argues that deteriorating breadth in stocks and high-yield bonds, falling SOFR volumes and money fund outflows will meet another $317 billion of net Treasury issuance in October and November.
Reality
- Evidence20
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence45