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Topic

Maritime Security

The protection of shipping, crews, ports and sea lanes from attack, piracy, blockade or state interference, often via naval escorts or exclusion zones.

Current stories

leadershipConfirmed2 publishers

Ships reported 12 attacks near Hormuz in one week, the most since the war began

BBC Verify's analysis of UKMTO data shows 12 ships reported attacks near Hormuz in the week of 5-11 October, the most since the war began. Oil flows through the strait have already slipped from September's recovery, so operators with fuel or freight exposure are planning on a short record.

Publishers:bbc.co.uk mezha.net

Reality

Evidence70
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+8
Incentives50
Confidence68
investConfirmed6 publishers

US strikes Iranian launchers on Larak Island days after declaring Hormuz mines cleared

Washington said it would trade strikes for sanctions. Days later it went back to shooting. For anyone pricing a Gulf voyage, mine risk in the strait was paused last week, not eliminated, and the freight and insurance numbers will keep saying so.

Perspective Coverage

6 publishers
Builder
Builder 5%
Operator
Operator 44%
Investor
Investor 51%

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+35
Incentives55
Confidence58
investOne report1 publisher

Hormuz shuttle runs cost Gulf producers up to $20 a barrel before insurance

Gulf producers are paying $30 million to $40 million a voyage to shuttle crude out of Hormuz, about $15 to $20 a barrel before insurance. They are taking it out of their own margins, and how long that lasts depends on repairs to a damaged Saudi pipeline.

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption65
Hype gap+5
Incentives70
Confidence60
investConfirmed5 publishers

Trump threatens Oman over a Hormuz toll deal, and the closure stays in your model

The US is now threatening the state brokering a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran keeps the passage shut pending sanctions relief. Reopening is not a base case.

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 5%
Operator
Operator 47%
Investor
Investor 48%

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+40
Incentives55
Confidence52
investOne report1 publisher

Saudi Arabia's bypass line would cover a quarter of the barrels Hormuz stops moving

A projectile hit a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on September 12-13, according to a UKMTO advisory, and on the worst days since the conflict began the corridor has carried two million barrels instead of twenty. Brent is above $100.

Reality

Evidence24
Adoption46
Hype gap+30
Incentives55
Confidence31
buildOne report1 publisher

IRGC recovers malfunctioning Dive-LD drone near Hormuz; analyst says Iran could reverse-engineer its mechanical systems

Reuters reported on September 9 that Iranian forces recovered the 19-foot autonomous vehicle after it failed near the Strait of Hormuz. The Navy calls the lost unit older and defective; Anduril has called the platform the most reliable on the market.

Publishers:tomshardware.com

Reality

Evidence48
Adoption30
Hype gap+35
Incentives78
Confidence45
investOne report1 publisher

Brent Crude Falls 2.9% as Iran and Oman Pursue Temporary Hormuz Shipping Deal

Friday's 2.9% fall prices Monday's first Iran-GCC ministerial since the war began, at a moment when regional exports sit near two-thirds of prewar levels and the Houthis are hitting Saudi Arabia's Red Sea bypass.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence38
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+32
Incentives74
Confidence44
investOne report1 publisher

Tehran puts a Hormuz exclusion zone on the calendar before drawing it on a chart

Mohsen Rezaei says the zone will run from the U.S. blockade line through the strait and into the Gulf, aimed at vessels Iran believes are trying to transit; the belief test, not the geometry, is what shipping has to price.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption10
Hype gap+30
Incentives82
Confidence45