Amodei's Three-Step Plan to Pace AI Faces Deep Verification Challenges
Anthropic pledged employee-level access for outside evaluators and OpenAI matched within hours. The two steps that ask labs to build less depend on rivals and governments agreeing a pace, and on taking each other's word for it.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
OpenAI denies reading two mathematicians' Codex logs before racing them to Navier-Stokes
Tristan Buckmaster says OpenAI accelerated onto Navier-Stokes after learning of his work with Anthropic's Levent Alpoge, and that the answer he got about his prompt history addressed lookup rather than training.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives88
- Confidence50
DeepMind now adds two researchers for every one it loses. In 2023 it was twelve.
Zeki Data's flow numbers put Anthropic at 22-to-1 and Google DeepMind at 2-to-1. Staffers blame pay, morale and the Gemini mandate; Zeki's founder blames the publication rules.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives68
- Confidence52
Anthropic leads OpenAI by 2.9 points overall, 7.4 among the heaviest AI spenders
Ramp's June card-spend index puts open-source and Chinese model serving in firms spending $248 per employee, 23 times the median. The cheap-model migration is starting at the top.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives62
- Confidence40
Greg Brockman, not Sam Altman, is the one running OpenAI day to day
OpenAI's president has absorbed product strategy and the whole scaling arm while his title stayed the same. Altman is still CEO; the operating decisions are no longer his.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives55
- Confidence46
OpenAI prices its own guardrails: 20% more compute, plus a two-week training pause
The company says expanded monitoring adds roughly 20 percent to the compute it covers, and that customers will not pay for it. It has not said how much of its compute is covered.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption44
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives74
- Confidence55
The gap is about 41 percent, the source is unnamed, and the company is preparing a share sale. Anyone signing a multi-year model contract should price the difference.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+33
- Incentives80
- Confidence58